Fleming Island, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fleming Island, FL

June 17, 2024 12:10 AM EDT (04:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM
Moonrise 3:35 PM   Moonset 2:01 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:202406170915;;142275 Fzus52 Kjax 162330 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 730 pm edt Sun jun 16 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-170915- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 730 pm edt Sun jun 16 2024

Rest of tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 4 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early.

Monday - East winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.

Monday night - East winds around 15 knots. Seas around 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 6 seconds and east 3 feet at 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.

Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 5 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.

Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: east 6 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.

Wednesday and Wednesday night - Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Wave detail: east 7 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday - East winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet, subsiding to 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet after midnight. Intracoastal waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.

Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet, subsiding to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet after midnight. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 730 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

Synopsis -
high pressure centered over new england will strengthen as it moves slowly offshore this evening. This feature will result in strengthening easterly winds late this afternoon and evening throughout our local waters, with winds and seas continuing to gradually increase early this week. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to begin both near shore and offshore on Tuesday. A low pressure center is expected to develop over the southwestern atlantic ocean early this week, with this feature gradually organizing around midweek as it moves westward across the bahamas, with a low risk for tropical development as this system approaches our local waters on Thursday and Thursday night. Coverage of showers and Thunderstorms will gradually increase across our local waters towards midweek, with widespread activity likely by late week.

Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jun 13, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
62 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 75 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 93 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fleming Island, FL
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Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 162329 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 729 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 729 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No major updates needed on the forecast this evening, scattered thunderstorms will linger west of I-75 for the next few hours.
With elevated onshore winds, very mild low temperatures are forecast for the coast tonight, only dropping into the upper 70s/near 80 degrees.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strengthening high pressure (1027 millibars) centered over New England, with a decaying frontal boundary wedging southward through the Carolinas and the southern Appalachians
Aloft
stout ridging prevails over the southeastern states, with the feature steering shortwave energy around its western periphery from the southern Plains states northeastward to the Great Lakes region. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier than average air mass remains over most of our region, except for locations near the Suwannee River, where values were in the 1.6 - 1.8 inch range, which is closer to climatology. PWAT values elsewhere were generally in the 1.3- 1.5 inch range, with higher PWATS just north of our region near the decaying frontal boundary.
Our local pressure gradient is tightening as high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard, with breezy easterly winds now in place for locations along and east of the St. Johns River, where the Atlantic sea breeze was progressing fairly quickly westward.
Widely scattered convection was developing along both the inland moving Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze boundaries, generally for locations south of the I-10 corridor. Temperatures ranged from the upper 80s to lower 90s at most locations, with dewpoints falling through the 60s for locations west of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor, with 70s for locations behind the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary.

NEAR TERM
(through Tonight)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Breezy easterly winds will overspread inland locations as the afternoon progresses, with onshore winds increasing to the 15-20 mph range with occasional gusts up to 30 mph by late this afternoon and early this evening along the Atlantic coast. The strengthening surface ridge along the New England coast will generally advect a dry and subsident air mass onshore, with the Atlantic sea breeze progressing well inland towards the I-75 corridor by the late afternoon hours. This boundary will encounter higher PWAT values located along and west of the Suwannee River, as it encounters a pinned Gulf Coast sea breeze. with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to erupt by late afternoon for locations along and west of I-75 in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL.

Showers and thunderstorms developing along the I-75 corridor during the mid to late afternoon hours will progress westward across the Suwannee and Alapaha Rivers by sunset. Breezy and convergent low level easterly flow may begin to advect isolated showers developing over the Atlantic waters onshore along the northeast FL coastal counties towards sunrise on Monday. The onshore breeze will be slow to weaken along the coast overnight, keeping lows in the upper 70s to around 80 for locations east of I-95, while lows elsewhere fall to the low and mid 70s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A persistent weather pattern is expected for this period as high pressure centered south and east of New England will continue to extend a ridge southwestward across the area. This will also continue a brisk onshore flow featuring easterly winds in the 10-20mph range with gusts around 25-35mph, and an elevated risk of rip currents at area beaches. Guidance is also in pretty good agreement that stacked high pressure to our northeast will advect some drier than normal air into the region aloft, and therefore reduce chances for any significant convection. The highest rain chances will likely be closer to the coast during this time frame with some showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm streaming onshore. The secondary area where there may be some convective coverage would be near or west of I-75 each day as the onshore flow meets the pinned Gulf Coast seabreeze.

Expecting mainly mid to upper 80s for highs during this period, with some low 90s likely for the western "half" of the CWA, dropping into the low to mid 70s and upper 70s near the coast each night.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Wednesday/Thursday: Eyes for the this period will be primarily focused on a tropical wave east of the Bahamas on Wednesday, and the potential for further tropical organization/development as it moves west-northwestward towards our area through Thursday. It is still too far out to determine if the system will organize into a tropical cyclone, or pass near the area as a tropical wave/trough.
In addition to strength and organization of the disturbance, guidance is also shaky with regards to the track, which has varied from moving towards as far north as the GA/SC border to as far south as south of Cape Canaveral, pending the strength and position of the strong steering ridge impacting the area this week. Main points to drive home as of now will be: 1. this area should pass close enough to increase rain chances area wide, including some localized heavy rain and flooding potential 2.
gusty onshore conditions are likely to continue through at least the end of the week, with hazardous beach conditions also likely to persist.

Friday through Sunday: Aforementioned high pressure will start to drift further south into the western Atlantic into next weekend, with ridging overhead weakening a bit in the wake of the departing disturbance. This should shift our flow more towards the southeast for the weekend and return a more normal sea breeze convection type of regime.

Temperatures: Tending near to slightly below average for the start of the long term period with more unsettled weather, returning closer to normal or even slightly above normal for next weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Overall, VFR conditions with the exception of low, early morning visibilities at VQQ are expected. Gusty easterly winds will pick up after sunrise tomorrow impacting all sites, with vicinity showers in place as well for showers moving onshore. Thunderstorm potential is limited for tomorrow so have not place that in the TAFs at this time until confidence increases.

MARINE
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure centered over New England will strengthen as it moves slowly offshore this evening. This feature will result in strengthening easterly winds late this afternoon and evening throughout our local waters, with winds and seas continuing to gradually increase early this week. Small Craft will need to Exercise Caution if venturing into our local waters on Monday and Monday night, as easterly winds strengthen to 15-20 knots and seas build to 3-5 feet on Monday and 4-6 feet by Monday evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin offshore on Tuesday and near shore by Tuesday night, as onshore winds strengthen to around 20 knots and seas build to 5-7 feet.

A low pressure center is expected to develop over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean early this week, with this feature gradually organizing around midweek as it moves westward across the Bahamas, with a low risk for tropical development as this system approaches our local waters on Thursday and Thursday night.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase across our local waters towards midweek, with widespread activity likely by late week. Seas will continue to build, with near shore seas climbing to the 8-11 foot range by Thursday, while seas offshore build to 9-13 feet.

Rip Currents: Strengthening easterly winds will result in building and increasingly rough surf, especially during the outgoing tide late this afternoon and early this evening. A High Risk of rip currents is expected by late afternoon at the northeast FL beaches, with a high end moderate risk for the southeast GA beaches, where wave heights should remain around 2 feet or less today. A high risk of rip currents is expected for the upcoming work week at all area beaches due to gradually strengthening onshore winds and building seas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Easterly surface and transport winds will become breezy this afternoon, creating good to marginally high daytime dispersion values for locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Generally fair dispersion values are expected for north central FL this afternoon. A dry air mass will prevail for inland locations across southeast GA and also for northern portions of the Suwannee Valley today and again on Monday, where afternoon humidity values will fall to the 30-35 percent. Breezy easterly transport winds will prevail area-wide on Monday and Tuesday, with windy surface conditions expected along the I-95 corridor during the afternoon and early evening hours. Good to high daytime dispersion values are forecast throughout our region for the early to middle portions of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 92 70 90 / 0 10 10 10 SSI 80 87 77 87 / 10 30 30 40 JAX 74 89 73 88 / 10 30 30 30 SGJ 79 88 76 87 / 10 40 30 40 GNV 73 91 70 89 / 10 20 20 20 OCF 73 92 72 92 / 20 20 20 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BKBF1 4 mi52 minESE 8G9.9 82°F 30.08
JXUF1 16 mi52 min 87°F
DMSF1 19 mi52 min 87°F
NFDF1 19 mi52 minE 8.9G11 82°F 30.0982°F
BLIF1 20 mi52 minESE 8G11 82°F 30.1177°F
LTJF1 22 mi52 min 82°F 76°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 23 mi52 minE 7G12 82°F 86°F30.12
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 29 mi70 minESE 14G15 82°F 86°F30.0882°F
41117 34 mi44 min 84°F3 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 40 mi52 minESE 4.1G8.9 84°F 87°F30.09
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 41 mi85 minESE 7 82°F 30.1273°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 45 mi130 min 83°F 85°F3 ft
KBMG1 46 mi52 min 83°F 30.10


Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: NIP
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Tide / Current for Julington Creek, Florida
   
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Julington Creek
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Sun -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:27 AM EDT     6.95 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:40 AM EDT     7.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:33 PM EDT     6.83 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:32 PM EDT     7.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Julington Creek, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
7.1
1
am
7.1
2
am
7
3
am
7
4
am
7
5
am
7.1
6
am
7.3
7
am
7.4
8
am
7.4
9
am
7.4
10
am
7.3
11
am
7.1
12
pm
7
1
pm
6.9
2
pm
6.9
3
pm
6.8
4
pm
6.8
5
pm
7
6
pm
7.2
7
pm
7.4
8
pm
7.4
9
pm
7.5
10
pm
7.5
11
pm
7.4


Tide / Current for Piney Point, St. Johns River, Florida
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Piney Point
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Sun -- 01:41 AM EDT     5.81 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:36 AM EDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:25 PM EDT     5.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     6.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Piney Point, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
5.8
1
am
5.8
2
am
5.8
3
am
5.9
4
am
6.1
5
am
6.3
6
am
6.4
7
am
6.5
8
am
6.5
9
am
6.4
10
am
6.2
11
am
6
12
pm
5.8
1
pm
5.8
2
pm
5.7
3
pm
5.8
4
pm
5.9
5
pm
6.1
6
pm
6.3
7
pm
6.4
8
pm
6.4
9
pm
6.4
10
pm
6.3
11
pm
6.1


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Jacksonville, FL,




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