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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 349 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Sunday night...
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers late this morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 349 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
light to moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots can be expected in advance of an approaching cold front tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will sweep through the waters tonight, and winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase in speed to 25 to 30 knots over all of the waters. These high winds will also push seas to between 6 and 10 feet over the open gulf waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and lakes. These rough conditions will last through Monday morning before improving as high pressure briefly settles in. However, another low pressure system deepening over the central gulf on Tuesday through Thursday will increase easterly flow to near 20 knots. Seas will once again turn rough as the combination of wind waves and swell pushes seas to around 7 feet in the open gulf waters.

FXUS64 KLIX 091141 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 541 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Overall the night has been quiet but there have been some minor impacts due to patchy moderate to dense fog. Overall things appeared to be mostly ok with just moderate and shallow fog according to the camera shots we have been able to see until around 9z when GOES16 10.3-3.9 micron(um) showed what looked like fog quickly developing and expanding south of the overcast skies over much of southwest MS and east of I-55. There was a little more rain yesterday than anticipated and that is very relative as the highest official measurement we saw was 0.04" but with that and the return flow the air is very humid; you can almost walk outside and just eat the air. Due to what appears to be developing and expanding moderate to dense fog we have opted to issue a dense fog advisory for much of SELA, mainly the western FL parishes and down through the river parishes. Kept the city of NO, much of the Northshore, and coastal MS out for now but may have to add if conditions look to go downhill. On the other hand we may be able to cancel the advisory early if the winds pick up any just off the deck causing the fog to lift and blanketing the area in stratus.

So that was the fog and the rest of the major impacts will occur in the next 60 hrs maybe 72 if we include the light freeze potential Tuesday morning. First thing to get out of the way is the small potential for strong to severe storms ahead and with the cold front tonight. The second issue will be the winds behind the cold front tomorrow. Third is the potential for a light freeze Monday morning and in a few isolated locations that have yet to see a freeze.

Isentropic lift/WAA will lead to a few areas of light showers today.
In fact there may be a few focused lines of showers as LL convergence will occur through the day likely leading to few separate but spaced out lines of clouds which over time today should be able to strengthen and become light showers. Biggest issue though is how much cloud cover we have today. Can the low clouds burn off enough to allow for some decent heating and how much lift can move into the area during the day
Clouds
well just about everyone will begin to day overcast with clouds based around 500 to 2k ft and these clouds may be quite stubborn which will hurt daytime heating most of the day. However, the clouds will likely not stay in the matter they are currently and should around midday/early afternoon break up or at least lift. It should allow the area to finally warm up with mid to upper 70s everywhere and a few lower 80s and thus slowly increase the instability some. As for lift that may be a bigger issue as water vapor doesn't show any significant or even subtle lift moving in for a while. Best lift is still well back into northwest TX. Models also show mid lvl hghts remaining steady all day. The lack of any real noticeable lift will mean convection will almost be solely driven off of the broad LL convergence and daytime heating. There were concerns if any convection can get going ahead of the front today but with what is currently presented this looks to be fairly minimal in coverage and weak. Our main trough axis is just now starting to cross into the TX panhandle and will work east through the area over the next 30 hours. The trough should be just about done digging as most if not all of the mid lvl jet core has rounded the base of the trough and is quickly streaming off to the northeast. Expect the trough to begin making a stronger push east today and tonight with the axis finally moving through the CWA between 12 and 18z tomorrow. Due to the positive tilt hghts as mentioned earlier will likely remain stead through most of the day and finally begin to low as the trough axis finally works into the Lower MS Valley. Hghts fall about 7dm from 0z to 12z which will be around the same time the cold front moves into the area. The cold front has pushed the northwestern 3rd of TX and should continue to work into the region but with the sfc low well north of the area and continuing to push north into Canada along with the southwest flow aloft still the front is not going to be a in a great hurry to get here but once the L/W trough sharpens up and starts to enter the region the front will get a renewed push this evening and likely make it through most if not all of the land area by 12z.

The main question is...what about the severe potential. We are under a MRGL Risk (lvl 1 of 5) over much of the area (a sliver of southwest MS mainly Wilkinson County is in the SLGT Risk) and that may be a little generous. There isn't a lot going for this system.
The bulk of the forcing appears to be right along the front or post frontal. Yes we have recovered and PWs are all the way back up to 1.43" but we just lack that impulse or jet streak to really get things to develop. We will be almost completely dependent on the cold front for lift as what LL jet does develop will be north of the area and being on the tail end of that is not favorable for convection as it is divergence. Even the h85 front which a few days ago was showing up much stronger and that would give us decent LL convergence is lagging farther back behind the sfc front and is not as sharp and the deeper into the night we get the lower the convergence becomes. HRRR and the some of the other CAMs show multiple lines of weak to moderate convection overnight and quite spaced out. This is likely due to the how far back each line of convergence is; the sfc front entering the area around 06z, while the h85 front is likely 8/9z and then the h7 front is more like 12 to 15z. These separate lines of convection appear to be associated with the front at each of these lvls which also indicates a lack of lift or the better way is no real noticeable focused surge of lift.
Hghts gradually lower through the night and h5 winds just begin to overspread the area punch. There is one area to keep an eye on and it appears to be a mid lvl jet streak which was moving into the 4 corners region and maybe more so AZ looking at the multiple WV views around 9/10Z. If this feature is really there and can move around the base of the trough and into the area that may provide enough of a punch to get a few potent storms overnight with the front but it looks like if this is real and will probably surge around the base of the trough as the trough axis is moving into the cwa and remain well south of the area. Shear is not all that impressive and if some of the CAMs are right the cold front could surge southeast shortly after midnight well before we start to get the strong mid lvl winds and broad lift. This is starting to suggest more and more likely that most of the convection will probably be post frontal and then the main risk for stronger storms would be hail especially given the cooler mid lvl temps. That said any any storm can develop along or ahead of the front there may be just enough ingredients to get a few damaging wind gusts and even a small short lived tornado or two.
The heavy rain threat is also looking highly unlikely especially if things are post frontal and then as progressive as everything is indicating from 6 to 15z. Can't rule out a few locations that could see maybe an inch but that is a bold statement. In fact there is a greater chance of some locations seeing less a 0.1" than there is seeing great than 0.25" much less and in ch or more. Even the risk of ponding to minor flooding in poorly drained and low lying areas is quite low.

Rain should finally taper off once the h7 front begins to push through. However behind our cold front winds will quickly shift from the south to northwest and become quite gusty. A wind advisory could be needed for areas south of the tidal lakes early tomorrow morning and through midday. Strong CAA, strong winds just off the deck, and quickly rising pressure at the sfc will promote windy conditions for a short while tomorrow. Other than that tomorrow will be on the blustery side as some locations will likely see temps hold steady most of the day or even cool a few degrees through the afternoon.
Skies will finally clear as the LL thermal trough slides east during the afternoon and then we could have the stage set for a chilly night. The northern half of the cwa has a decent shot of seeing a light freeze Monday morning but holding off on a freeze watch as most of this area has already seen a few light freezes. One of the more noticeable locations is BTR which has not see the mercury drop down to 32 yet. GPT also has not touched 32 yet but has dropped to 33 and surrounding locations have hit freezing around both sites.
Even with that there would still be enough of a reason to issue the watch if confidence was highs that we would drop to freezing over a larger area tomorrow night. The sfc high finally gets right over the area Monday morning and winds at the sfc will decouple but it will take almost all night for this to occur and winds at h95 will still be in the 15 to 20 kt range through much of the night. That would promote mixing and could be just enough to keep the area from fully realizing the potential. The location with the best chance for a light freeze appears to be the northwestern 3rd/half of the cwa and that would include BTR as the sfc high will get into that area earlier in the night likely providing a longer time for maybe a few hours of prime rad cooling.

Monday night the radiational cooling potential appears to be far better initially but just before sunrise winds may start to pick up a little and LL waa could already be underway as well and that may hurt the temp drop some. Guidance all indicates lows slightly warmer Tuesday but and not completely sold on this and will indicate a light freeze in the grids for a 3rd of the area. /CAB/



LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The extended portion of the forecast begins quiet and cool. We will begin to moderate Tuesday as we will already be in zonal flow and likely transitioning to southwest flow through the day. Still looks like some disturbance tries to approach from the subtropics but it never makes it to us and thus we remain dry through what looks like Thursday at least. By Thursday the models really begin to diverge on how to handle the Rex block over the western CONUS.
Most of the models seem to break this down way faster than one would think and they all handle it a little different with the GFS the wetter solution with a lot of rain over the Gulf coast states overnight Thursday into the weekend while the ECMWF is drier with a more focused front this weekend. Confidence is low in the forecast past Wednesday and will stick with the NBM for now. One thing to point out, the extended portion of the forecast is likely going to be highly uncertain for some time. The main reason is the global pattern, combined with the strong El Nino and what looks to be a persistent Aleutian low with large amount of jet energy streaming across the Pacific. This much energy is going to play havoc on the models but one thing does appear to be certain, we will probably remain on the active side, warm and likely wet side through much of the month. Still doesn't mean we won't have a few days of cooler weather just that the overall setup suggest warm. /CAB/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

All terminals are dealing with impacts either from low cigs, reduced vsbys, or both. A very humid airmass in place along with some light rain yesterday adding to the boundary layer and we have seen fog develop and expand across much of the area. IFR cigs were initially the problem and it looked like that would be the main problem as winds were expected to pick up in the low lvls through the morning. This hasn't been the case and thus we have seen moderate to dense fog develop and impact multiple terminals.
The fog should improve shortly after sunrise but the low cigs may take most of the morning and even some of the afternoon. The other issue is convection and the cold front tonight. Winds will rapidly shift to the northwest after the frontal passage and we could even see some LLWS issues. /CAB/

MARINE
Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Overall light impacts today over the coastal waters but that will quickly change early tomorrow morning after the cold front moves through. Winds will quickly veer around to the northwest and ramp up. Strong cold air advection, winds becoming unidirectional from the sfc to 3-5k ft, 6hr sfc pressure rises of 3 to 6 mb, and winds around 3-5k ft at 30 to 45 kt all indicate a period of very strong winds. With this we have issued Gale Watches and Small Craft advisories, please refer to that product for greater detail on location and potential impacts (Marine Weather Warning...MWW product). Winds should begin to slack off slowly overnight Sunday night but headlines likely won't completely drop until sometime Monday. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 75 44 54 28 / 60 90 10 0 BTR 80 49 58 32 / 60 90 10 0 ASD 77 48 59 31 / 20 90 20 0 MSY 78 51 59 40 / 10 80 10 0 GPT 73 49 61 34 / 20 90 30 0 PQL 77 50 63 30 / 30 80 40 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037- 046>048-056>060-065>069-071-081>090.

GM...Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for GMZ530.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ530.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for GMZ570- 572.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ575-577.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for GMZ575-577.

MS...None.
GM... Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for GMZ572.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ577.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for GMZ577.

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Long Point
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Sat -- 03:21 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:31 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM CST     0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

Bay St. Louis
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Sat -- 03:20 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:44 AM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:29 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM CST     1.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Tide feet

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