Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waveland, MS

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:37PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:13 AM CDT (16:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 10:47AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1023 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Today..West winds near 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the late evening and early morning, then becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1023 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis.. Ridge extension of bermuda high pressure area across the northern gulf of mexico will persist through the week. Unsettled pattern will provide several periods of Thunderstorms over the coastal waters through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waveland, MS
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location: 30.13, -89.43     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 201545
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1045 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019

Update
A forecast update was performed this morning to reflect recent
observation, radar and satellite trends. A low-level stratus deck
continues to steadily erode generally along and north of i-10 12,
which has kept temperatures a bit lower than hourly temperature
guidance has suggested. For areas south along the southshore and
coastal SE la, surface heating combined with td's in the mid to
upper 70's has already developed a CU field. With these
observations, combined with latest cam guidance today, expect
spotty shower storms to develop across southern areas first, with
a slow but steady increase in coverage to the north through
mid late afternoon. Will watch a few local enhancements remnant
boundaries where convection could be more localized. One is racing
across SW terrebonne parish, which should keep the SE la coastal
areas wet all day. The other is from remnant convection in
association with a weak meso-low south of mobile, al that may
send a weak outflow boundary west across the ms coastline early
afternoon, enhancing coverage in that area.

Main focus for the day will be localized heavy rainfall in any one
storm. Slight drying in the low to mid-levels has pulled
precipitable water values down to around 2 inches, lower than
yesterday's profile which confirms a relatively minimal flash flood
risk. Not expecting widepsread severe weather today, but locally
gusty winds 30 to 40 mph and dangerous lightning may be possible
in any one stronger storm. Klg

Prev discussion issued 413 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019
not a lot of change to precip numbers which will keep temps from
getting too warm as well. Deep moisture still resides over the
area and this will continue to help produce some very heavy
rainfall with the strongest thunderstorms. Pw values will inch
toward 2.6" today so this basically sets the stage. The main
difference is weak to non-existent 850mb convergence which simply
takes any real focus away. Also, svr wx numbers still not
impressive but this environment will be hospitable toward
waterspout activity.

An easterly wave is just exiting the west coast of fl this
morning. This can be seen in the pressure and wind field. The gfs
and NAM are handling this feature rather well while the euro is
having a little trouble with it. This is the feature that helps
bring a large area of moisture out of the western caribbean into
the gulf by Tue night into wed. The wave basically acts as an
interface or conduit for the moisture to be transported toward the
northwest while the wave moves westward. The deep moisture
finally makes its way to the NW gulf Thu night into Fri as it
begins to feel the tug of the synoptic troughing to the north. By
the weekend, this moisture spreads along the gulf coast possibly
as far east as pensacola. The nature of this moisture will be
tropical so pw values will be quite high and could lead to some
flooding issues over the weekend for some areas along the gulf
coast, but at the moment, it is too soon to tell which areas that
will be.

Aviation...

several terminals that saw rain late in the day Monday are now
seeing fog. Lifr or lower conditions currently at kbtr, kmcb, kasd
and khdc. Current thinking is that remaining terminals could see
some MVFR ceilings, but probably won't see the very low conditions.

Isolated convection developing over marine areas where there were
likely outflow boundaries. Will be monitoring those echoes for the
potential to add thunder mention for kasd, knew and kmsy. Khum could
also see some shra over the next few hours.

Expecting the very low conditions to mix out with improvement to
MVFRVFR around 14-15z. Should start seeing scattered to numerous
shra to develop after 15z. No doubt that some of these showers will
develop thunder, but primary threat (highest areal coverage) of tsra
will be beyond 18z. Localized ifr conditions in thunderstorms with
30 knot gusts, for the most part. Would expect most tsra to weaken
or dissipate by about 00z Wednesday. Fog may still be a threat
beyond 06z Wednesday, but probabilities not high enough to go with
prevailing in the 12z package, but this is subject to change as
later information becomes available. 35
marine...

bermuda ridge flow pattern to maintain light winds and low seas that
will become locally enhanced near thunderstorms complexes that
develop mainly in the overnight hours. 24 35
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: monitoring convective heavy rainfall threats.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 90 72 90 72 30 10 90 10
btr 90 74 90 75 40 20 90 0
asd 89 74 90 74 50 50 70 20
msy 89 77 90 78 50 40 70 20
gpt 86 74 88 75 60 50 70 20
pql 87 74 91 74 70 50 50 20

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 15 mi62 min NE 5.1 G 8 78°F 83°F1018.7 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi62 min NNE 5.1 G 6 80°F 86°F1018.3 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 37 mi62 min NE 5.1 G 6 80°F 86°F1017.5 hPa
CARL1 40 mi56 min 87°F
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 49 mi62 min 82°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 49 mi62 min SE 6 G 7 76°F 1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS16 mi84 minVar 47.00 miOvercast79°F75°F89%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5--NE7--CalmCalmW3CalmN5NE3--------------N5NE4NE3N4N5NE4E4
1 day agoW7W7SW8NE10E8NE8--N4S3CalmCalmCalm----Calm----CalmCalmCalmN4Calm--3
2 days agoCalmSE5NE6SW5SW7----S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalm----4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:23 AM CDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:22 AM CDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:34 AM CDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM CDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:43 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:08 PM CDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Grand Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.