Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Panama City, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

There are no significant changes from the previous forecast.

For today, as the remnants of Arthur move across southern Mississippi into central Alabama, we will likely have bands of heavy showers and storms stream northward through our area. These training bands could produce flash flooding as they move northward or northeastward through the area. The highest totals will be across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, where a Flood Watch remains in effect. With PWATs in the 2.2 to 2.4 inch range, showers and storms will be very efficient rain producers in the tropical air mass and could produce a few inches of rain in a short period of time. WPC has a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall for areas generally along and west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers with a Slight and Marginal Risk farther to the east. This is relatively rare for our area and signals the possibility of considerable flash flooding in the heaviest rain bands. This possibility lingers into tonight as well.

Additionally, there is a risk for severe weather today given strong low-level shear and a strong low-level jet with the nearby remnant of Arthur. A few tornadoes are possible in some of the bands as well as some gusty winds. The SPC has upgraded a portion of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle to a Slight Risk of severe weather (Level 2 of 5) today with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the remainder of the area for today and tonight.

On the beaches, dangerous rip currents will continue with building surf. Surf heights of 6 feet are probable on the Walton and Bay County beaches today, and a High Surf Advisory is in effect for these beaches.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

There are no significant changes from the previous forecast.

By Friday, the cold front will continue sinking toward the Gulf Coast, and we will still have the tropical moisture in place.
Thus, the heavy rain threat continues with another Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (level 3 of 4) across southeast Alabama and the inland Florida Panhandle. Also, we'll continue a threat of strong to locally severe storms with gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two on Friday.

For Saturday, the cold front will weaken as it slows its approach to the Gulf Coast. Moisture will gradually decrease through the weekend, but still a localized heavy rain threat continues. We'll also have to watch for any upstream MCS's that ride southeastward along the stalled front. Given the likely wet ground at this point of the forecast, any additional heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding in localized spots.

The front dissipates heading into Sunday and rain chances will finally decrease heading into next week. Ridging will build off to our west next week, and our temperatures will heat back up to the low to mid 90s. Given the very wet conditions, it will likely be quite humid, and heat indices could approach advisory levels early to mid next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Periods of SHRA/TSRA through the period. IFR cigs at DHN/ECP this morning will only improve to MVFR today. Brief MVFR cigs TLH/VLD this morning, except ECP where they will persist most of the day.
Additional restrictions in SHRA/TSRA at the terminals today and tonight. Winds will become gusty out of the S-SW by late morning around 10-15 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts, and while we loose the gustiness around 00Z, sustained winds remain elevated tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Southerly breezes will strengthen across the waters with advisory- level conditions expected through at least early Friday morning over the Gulf west of Apalachicola with cautionary conditions east. Winds will weaken as we head into the weekend, becoming gentle to moderate out of the west to southwest. Seas will build to 5 to 7 feet today, then subside to 2 to 3 feet this weekend into next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A very moist air mass will be in place through the weekend, supporting widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, thick cloud cover, and wetting rains. Pockets of heavy rainfall are expected. Thunderstorms will come with dangerous lightning and sudden gusty winds.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

There are no significant changes from the previous forecast.

Heavy rain will likely lead to flash flooding over the next few days, especially in southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Training bands of showers and storms within a tropical environment will increase the threat of flash flooding beginning today and lingering into Friday. Flash flood guidance across the area is around 2.5-3.5 inches in 1 hour or 3-4 inches in 3 hours, lowest across inland areas.

A Flood Watch is in effect for areas roughly along and west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. This coincides with WPC's Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (level 3 of 4). It's relatively rare for our area to have a Moderate Risk outlined in our area. This indicates either numerous flash floods or some significant flash flooding is possible. While widespread totals in the Flood Watch area will be around 3-7 inches, some localized spots under training bands could see 8-12 inches (10 percent chance of seeing totals higher than this). If this falls in a short period of time, then considerable flash flooding is a possibility.

Farther east, while the threat of considerable flash flooding is lower, some localized flash flooding remains possible as the storms will still be capable of producing very heavy rain. But, the concentration of heavy rain will be more scattered.

Friday's risk is a little more uncertain given the remnants of Arthur will have moved on, but a front will still be in the area with plenty of moisture. Our ground will also be pretty saturated at this point, so we will be rather susceptible to flash flooding. Thus, the Moderate Risk continues for Friday across southeast Alabama and the inland Florida Panhandle. The risks decrease heading into the weekend.

On the river side, rises into action stage and perhaps minor flood are possible along the Pea, Choctawhatchee, and Shoal River basins.
A rise to moderate flood stage cannot be ruled out if bands train over a particular river basin, particularly for the Shoal River at Mossy Head in Walton County. Otherwise, most other rivers could rise to action stage, but river flooding outside of the aforementioned basins is not expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 89 77 89 75 / 60 50 80 40 Panama City 86 79 88 78 / 70 60 60 30 Dothan 83 74 85 73 / 90 90 90 60 Albany 87 74 84 73 / 90 90 90 60 Valdosta 90 77 88 74 / 60 50 80 50 Cross City 93 79 90 76 / 30 10 60 40 Apalachicola 87 82 88 79 / 30 20 40 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late Friday night for FLZ007>013-108-112.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ108-112- 114.

High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Friday for FLZ108-112.

GA...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late Friday night for GAZ120>128-142>145-155-156.

AL...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late Friday night for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ751-752-770- 772.