Saturday, June12, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Park Estates, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 7:58PM Saturday June 12, 2021 9:37 AM CDT (14:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:32AMMoonset 10:09PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 913 Am Cdt Sat Jun 12 2021
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds near 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas building to 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 913 Am Cdt Sat Jun 12 2021
Synopsis..High pressure remains centered in the north-central gulf through the weekend. The pressure field aloft will breakdown first half of the week with the potential for a broad area of low pressure in the bay of campeche 2nd half of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Park Estates, MS
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location: 30.15, -88.72     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 120909 CCA AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION . CORRECTED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 409 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

SHORT TERM. The current upper level pattern puts the CWA right on the edge of northerly flow as high pressure is centered near West Texas and a trough is track southward across the Appalachian Mountains. Subsidence from the the ridge will keep convection limited most of the day and also allow for temps to bump up above climo. NBM temp for today was slightly above previous forecast and warmer than yesterday, so went with that warmer guidance. The question is whether convection northeast of the CWA will make it into the local area during the daytime period. Some CAMs show that happening in the form of an MCS, while an equal number of CAMs show that not happening. Decided to keep higher POPs in the forecast mainly along and east of a line from MCB to ASD. Sounding profiles look quite conducive for producing wind gusts with an inverted-V low level and ample instability aloft. DCAPE approaches 1000j/kg late in the day when convection potential is greatest. Therefore, main concern with any storms today will be strong and damaging winds.

The base of the trough over the Appalachians will slide south to Florida and expand westward on Sunday. This will erode more of the ridge aloft which will allow for mostly uninhibited convection development. Expect coverage to jump across the CWA to close to 80% Sunday and possibly again on Monday. Temps will probably slide back to or below normal with such high coverage and cloud cover in place.

MEFFER

LONG TERM. The biggest question in the extended is at the end of the 7 day forecast and beyond. Yes that is the tropics and the area in the Bay of Campeche that we are currently watching. Prior to that the focus is on the two dominant features, very stout ridge centered over the 4 corners and the L/W trough over the Atlantic coast. Right now the NBM is pretty much right in the middle and it is rather hard to find some target of opportunities where I feel confidence enough to deviate. One possibility is morning lows Tuesday through Thursday but other than that will stick with the latest NBM values.

For the majority of the extended we will be in an interesting location. Not completely controlled by the ridge but possibly to far removed for the east coast trough. Tuesday and Wednesday the ridge will remain centered over the 4 corners with an axis extending ESE across the north-central Gulf coast however mid lvl hghts will not be that impressive (only around 587-588dm) while h5 temps will remain around -8C. Best chance for rain Tuesday through Thursday looks to be Tuesday. Moisture will still be ready and waiting to be tapped into. Looks like there will be some sort of LL trough across the coast which should lead to a rather good chance of convection after w heat up some Tuesday, especially along the coast. However after Tuesday it appears the one change that is being advertised is possible dry air working in from the north. Another s/w will be working down the back side of the L/W trough and this anchors it over the Atlantic coast and depending on exactly where that dives south it could drive in quite a bit of dry air which wasn't being advertised before. This may help to drive rain chances down quite a bit Wednesday and Thursday ahead of our possible tropical concerns. However, northerly flow in the Summer month can often lead to strong storms but usually it is a little later in the Summer and we also usually pushing mid to possibly upper 90s.

Now turning towards the tropics. First confidence is extremely low in any scenario right now. A lot will depend on where and if anything does develop in the southern Gulf. Next will be the two previous features mentioned, the ridge to our west and L/W trough over the Atlantic coast, with the ridge likely the bigger driver in the forecast. Where the ridge sets up, builds, moves will highly dictate any possible future tropical systems track. Right now there appear to be at least 3 more likely of a number of possible solutions. 1, if the ridge builds in across the Lower/Mid MS Valley and possibly into the southeastern CONUS it should block the systems northward progress and likely drive it more west. 2, if the ridge doesn't build far enough into the southeastern CONUS but does build some southwest into Mexico it could trap whatever develops in the northwestern Gulf with it sitting out there for a while. 3, the ridge doesn't build as much into the MS Valley with the L/W trough holding on a little longer allowing the system to continue to slowly work north across the north-central Gulf and then inland. None of these 3 solutions are great and honestly all 3 suggest the possibility of very heavy rain somewhere across the northern Gulf. So we don't want to try and say one is better than the other for our area and we will not get into any great details at this time however, the threat for heavy rain late next week and the weekend continues to increase. Please continue to follow the latest statement from the Hurricane Center and forecast from our office. If and when it looks like we will see impacts we will provide more details.

/CAB/

AVIATION. VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals over the next 12 hours. Mid level CU field will develop mid morning and last until about sunset. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms may develop late in the day. The best chance is along the MS coast, so KGPT is the only terminal with VCTS in the TAF.

MEFFER

MARINE. Surface ridge centered in the central Gulf will maintain westerly flow today. Some enhancement is possible as a backdoor front approaches from the northeast. That means 15 to 20 knot winds may develop along the sounds today through Sunday. The surface pressure field will then breakdown through the first half of the week. This will cause winds and seas to relax and lead to winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. The remainder of the forecast period will be determined by the strength and track of a potential low pressure in the Bay of Campeche.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 92 74 92 74 / 20 40 80 20 BTR 93 75 92 75 / 10 20 80 30 ASD 93 75 93 75 / 20 30 80 40 MSY 94 78 93 78 / 10 20 80 40 GPT 92 76 92 76 / 30 30 70 40 PQL 92 74 93 73 / 40 30 60 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 12 mi49 min WNW 15 G 18 82°F 1013.8 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 17 mi49 min 80°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 34 mi49 min NW 12 G 14 91°F 83°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 35 mi37 min WNW 13 G 14 81°F 1013.3 hPa (+0.8)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 37 mi49 min WNW 17 G 18 81°F 1013.2 hPa
MBPA1 43 mi49 min 84°F 78°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 49 mi49 min NW 4.1 G 9.9 83°F 83°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Petit Bois Island, Port of Pascagoula, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS22 mi1.7 hrsNW 310.00 miFair82°F76°F83%1013.1 hPa
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS24 mi44 minNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds86°F76°F72%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIX

Wind History from BIX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW10SW5SW9SW9SW7SW11S9SW12S12SW14SW16SW14SW12SW8SW11SW10SW10SW12SW9SW9SW7W4SW8SW11
2 days agoS6S6S9S11SW11S12SW10SW11S10S7--S9--SW7SW7SW5NE3S10SW10SW8SW9SW6W6SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Chandeleur Light, Louisiana
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Chandeleur Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:50 AM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:09 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:17 PM CDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.100.20.30.50.70.91.11.21.31.41.41.41.31.10.90.70.50.20-0.1-0.2-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Horn Island Pass, Mississippi
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Horn Island Pass
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:58 AM CDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:08 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:45 PM CDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.10.30.50.811.31.51.81.92.12.121.91.61.310.60.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.4

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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