Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Park Estates, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:57PM Monday December 16, 2019 7:16 AM CST (13:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:41PMMoonset 11:37AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 537 Am Cst Mon Dec 16 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon cst today...
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers until late afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers until early morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers after midnight.
Tuesday..North winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent gusts around 35 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tuesday night..North winds 20 knots gusts 30 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 537 Am Cst Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis..Strong cold front will move through the coastal waters tonight, possibly preceded by a squall line of Thunderstorms. Cold high pressure will build into the north gulf Tuesday and Wednesday, moving east and moderating Thursday. A re-enforcing cold front moves through Friday with weaker high pressure settling in over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Park Estates, MS
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location: 30.15, -88.72     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 161119 AAA AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 519 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

UPDATE. Based on latest observations, placed a Dense Fog Advisory over the MS coastal counties and easternmost LA parishes through 9 am. This should be relatively short-lived as warm air advection should lift the fog deck shortly after sunrise. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 349 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/

SHORT TERM . The main concerns for this forecast package fall squarely on the day one portion, namely with the threat of severe thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front that arrives on the western flank this afternoon around max daytime heating. To start, went with NBM temperatures, but bumped up 2-3 degrees across the board to overcome typical cold bias in the guidance. This means BTR and MCB are expected to reach the lower, possibly mid 80s, prior to the front. This will aid in destabilizing the air mass with the added compressional heating but this is not a clear cut scenario. As far as messaging, going to maintain vigilance for the SLIGHT to ENHANCED outlook given the amount of speed shear over the area, better than lately surface based CAPES and anomously high precipitable water values that exceed the daily max value of 1.55 inches by about 0.15-0.25 inches. The high resolution convective allowing models indicated discrete supercellular structures in advance of the frontal QLCS with several mergers. It would be this behavior to cause some potential tornado development on right of mean moving cells. Some inhibitors to possibly nix severe integrity include frontal elongation away from the main dynamics well north of the area; stable marine layer influences, and somewhat lacking deep layered CAPE. The higher resolution model soundings do indicate a veer-back-veer nature to the winds in the lower part of the column in deference to an elevated marine layer, which could detach any MARC structures aloft from extending and penetrating fully to the surface. The CHAP output(which is sensitive to layer stability) from yesterday's model runs were pinging on severe potential around 17/00Z, but this morning's runs have settled back to to sub-severe levels with probability of severe generally dialed back to around 10%, when it was in the 30-50% range in previous runs of the GFS. The NAM soudings shows no severe, generally gust potential 20-25 mph on the frontal QLCS. BUT, despite these negatives, it does remain prudent to maintain alertness and messaging to severe threat and to continue monitoring latest observations, high res model trends and updated sounding data at 12Z and special release tentatively scheduled for 21Z. The timing of the main activity still appears to favor between 2 pm and 5 pm for SW Mississippi and the adjacent Louisiana Parishes. If the marine layer considerations come into play, then sunset and loss of daytime heating will cut into the intensity of the line considerably farther east and south, but a decent squall line with gusts probably 30-40 mph still likely downstream in the evening hours. Front should be east of the forecast area by daybreak Tuesday with cold high pressure building into the region. This will produce a non-diurnal nature to the temperatures, typically warmest in the night time hours and about 20-25 degrees colder than previous day during the daylight hours.

LONG TERM . Wednesday and Thursday should be seasonably cold with morning lows in light freeze range for the interior and drainage prone areas, and mid to upper 30s for marine influenced locations. Daytime highs only muster the 50s both days but under mostly sunny skies and diminishing winds. Meanwhile, upper level troughing becomes more amplified on Friday to induce QG frontogenesis in the base for cold air re-enforcement Friday and Saturday as the sharper trough axis moves through. This is followed by steady height rises aloft Sunday into early next week for a steady warming trend closer to normal levels.

AVIATION . Marine layer cloud deck in places at 003-005 for LIFR conditions and very patchy light fog where cloud cover is less pronounced this morning. Then all locations improving to VFR by mid-morning through the afternoon. Cold front and pre-frontal convection is expected to impact the western terminals this afternoon, generally KBTR 20-22Z, KMCB 20-23Z, KHDC 21-24Z, KASD/KMSY/KNEW/KHUM 22-01Z, KGPT 00-03Z. Some convective gusts near severe 45-50 kts and hail surface and aloft seem possible at KBTR and KMCB. Sub-severe 35-40kt gusts at KASD/KMSY/KNEW, 25kt at stable marine layer influenced locations KHUM and KGPT. Wind shift to follow shortly after convection then increasing to moderate NW winds, maybe 1-2 hours of frontal LLWS until the cold column deepens by early morning Tuesday.

MARINE . Rather light winds and low seas today to undergo some increase on tightening gradient in the pre-frontal zone this afternoon and evening. Pre-frontal squall line anticipated to bring gusty conditions 35-40 knots with wind shift, settle for a period, then increase to strong NW with frequent gale gusts as cold air advection deepens over the coastal waters Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday morning before settling down. A Gale Watch has been posted for Tue and Wed for the coastal waters, with an upgrade to warning coming later today, along with issuance of Small Craft Advisories for the tidal lakes and sounds not covered by Gale Watch. Another shot of re-enforcing cold air becomes established as broad low pressure attempts to develop in the lower gulf this weekend.

DECISION SUPPORT . DSS code: Orange Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Support for the City of New Orleans Slight to Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for this afternoon/evening. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 77 45 54 32 / 100 100 10 0 BTR 81 44 53 33 / 90 100 10 0 ASD 80 46 58 32 / 50 100 40 0 MSY 80 49 57 38 / 50 100 40 0 GPT 75 49 59 34 / 30 100 50 0 PQL 79 50 64 32 / 30 90 60 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ039-040- 050-058-060>064-068>070-072.

GM . Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ077- 080>082.

GM . Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42067 - USM3M02 10 mi76 min E 3.9 G 5.8 66°F 4 ft1016.3 hPa (+0.3)
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 12 mi52 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 66°F 1016.9 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 17 mi52 min 60°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 21 mi91 min ENE 1.9 63°F 1018 hPa63°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi76 min SSE 7 26°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.3)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 33 mi46 min ESE 4.1 66°F 1017.3 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 34 mi52 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 62°F 58°F1016.7 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 35 mi76 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 1017.1 hPa (+0.9)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 37 mi46 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 67°F 1017.2 hPa
MBPA1 43 mi46 min 64°F 64°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 49 mi46 min Calm G 1 71°F 61°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Petit Bois Island, Port of Pascagoula, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS22 mi80 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds67°F66°F100%1016.9 hPa
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS24 mi23 minN 00.50 miFog63°F61°F93%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIX

Wind History from BIX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------SE6--SE7S9S8SE7SE8SE9S7S7S7S6S7S6S7S6S6CalmCalm
1 day agoN4NE4NE4NE5NE4NE3CalmN3NE5N3NE4NE9NE4NE6Calm------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Chandeleur Light, Louisiana
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Chandeleur Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:02 AM CST     1.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:42 AM CST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:42 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.21.110.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.50.60.80.91

Tide / Current Tables for Horn Island Pass, Mississippi
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Horn Island Pass
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:10 AM CST     1.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:10 AM CST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.81.71.41.10.80.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.200.20.50.711.21.41.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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