Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Upper Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday July 4, 2020 10:12 PM CDT (03:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:40PMMoonset 5:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:202007051515;;331996 Fzus52 Ktae 050210 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1010 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-051515- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1010 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020 /910 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 4 2020/
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1010 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis..Elevated winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 to 3 feet will prevail along with widespread showers and Thunderstorms, especially in the overnight hours. Wind direction will predominately be out of the southwest through the next week. Expect locally higher winds and seas in any Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.17, -85.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 050209 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1009 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

UPDATE.

PoPs were updated a bit to reflect current trends. Expect coverage of showers and storms to remain limited over land areas tonight. The exception will be near the coast, especially the Big Bend coast where convergence is maximized on the leading edge of low pressure.

PREV DISCUSSION [654 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Tonight and Tomorrow].

Showers and thunderstorms are moving inland off the sea breeze from Apalachee Bay with an outflow boundary heading NW towards the FL/AL/GA intersection. A mid level low pressure area off the Gulf coast will continue to move north and east tonight into Sunday, providing the deep layer lift for showers and storms. These storms today should continue to increase in coverage off the sea breeze and outflow boundaries in a sufficiently moist and unstable environment. A few showers/storms will linger overnight. Showers/storms should develop on Sunday similar to today, along the coast and eventually areawide. With the low farther inland Sunday, we should see higher coverage of storms Sunday than we did Saturday. Although a strong storm can't be ruled out, with PW values over 2 inches, slow moving, heavy rain producing storms with isolated flash flooding is the greatest risk. Lows both nights will be in the lower 70s with highs Sunday a touch cooler than previous forecasts, in the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM [Sunday night through Monday night].

Active pattern will continue through the short term period as a broad upper level low will persist over the southern US. Our area will be situated on the southeast side of this system through the end of the weekend and into early next week so deep-layer moisture will prevail over the forecast area. Preciptable waters will be well above normal and will help contribute to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Of some concern through Monday evening will be localized flooding as the deep tropical moisture will make efficient rain producers of these thunderstorms. Widespread rainfall amounts of around 1 to 3 inches is possible through this period, with the highest amounts expected to be across our Florida counties. While the highest coverage of storms is generally expected in early afternoon hours, storms are possible at all hours of the day through Monday evening.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday].

The broad upper level low responsible for the active weather over the holiday weekend will slowly retreat northward through the beginning of the week. In its wake, mid-level flow will remain mostly west to east while rich tropical moisture remains in place across the area. Daily shower and storm chances will continue to remain above normal, but we'll likely see the return to a more normal diurnal summertime pattern. However, there is still considerable differences in the individual model runs regarding the evolution of the weekend's upper level low. Regardless, above normal rain chances are likely to continue along with temperatures around normal with a slight hedge to below normal given the moist conditions.

Towards the end of next week, there is growing consensus in a very large ridge developing across the central US. Should this pattern develop, northwesterly flow through much of the atmosphere could bring lower rain chances by the end of next week.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Monday]

Thunderstorms remain in the vicinity of ECP and will remain there until shortly after sunset. Storms shouldn't impact the terminals overnight but are expected again at all terminals by Sunday afternoon. Did include them in the prevailing group due to the high chances (80%) we have in our public forecast for consistency. IFR CIGS seems possible again tonight; if anything, 900ft may be slightly too high at a few terminals and amendments will be likely. Winds near thunderstorms will be stronger and more erratic.

MARINE.

Elevated winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 to 3 feet will prevail along with widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially in the overnight hours. Wind direction will predominately be out of the southwest through the next week. Expect locally higher winds and seas in any thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER.

Dispersion values will be low, near the critical value of 20, in parts of the SW GA counties on Sunday but higher everywhere else. This will be due to slightly lower mixing heights and lower wind speeds. Elsewhere, transport winds should be around 15 MPH. By Sunday, wind speeds increase enough to raise dispersion values. Overall, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected both Sunday and Monday with a few storms lingering each night. Fog is possible each night although it will likely be just a low cloud deck reducing ceilings but not visibility.

HYDROLOGY.

A wet and unsettled pattern is forecast over the next several days as a low pressure system stalls over our area. Pockets of heavy rainfall are possible throughout the weekend. Currently, our area is highlighted by a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over the remainder of the weekend and into next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is possible through the next 2 to 3 days with additional rainfall likely over the week. Isolated amounts could be higher, especially as the area of low pressure slowly meanders across our area over the weekend and into next week. The main impacts would be minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 74 86 72 87 72 / 60 90 60 90 40 Panama City 77 88 76 86 77 / 40 80 70 90 50 Dothan 73 87 72 83 72 / 30 90 50 90 50 Albany 74 89 73 85 72 / 20 80 40 90 50 Valdosta 72 85 72 85 72 / 20 90 40 90 30 Cross City 73 88 72 89 74 / 70 80 50 80 40 Apalachicola 76 87 76 86 77 / 50 80 80 90 40

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

UPDATE . Harrigan NEAR TERM . LN SHORT TERM . Dobbs LONG TERM . Dobbs AVIATION . LN MARINE . Dobbs FIRE WEATHER . LN HYDROLOGY . Dobbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi55 min E 1.9 G 2.9 81°F
PCBF1 7 mi55 min ESE 6 G 7 78°F 83°F1012.6 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 52 mi55 min N 6 G 7 74°F 85°F1013.1 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 53 mi88 min NNW 5.1 1014 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL11 mi17 minWNW 310.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1013.1 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL13 mi20 minSE 310.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE6S5S3CalmSE5SE3SE5SE7E5SE4CalmW4W9W11W13W11W12SE7NW7S4S3W3
1 day agoN8N6N6N8N6N7N7NE5NE5NE3E4NW7NW7NW7W8E3W10W8NW11NW9NW6NW6N4E5
2 days agoN6NE5N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN14N14NW15N16N19NW19N15N15N15NW16NW14N12N11N10

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Bayou, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:04 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM CDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:42 PM CDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:44 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.811.31.61.81.91.91.91.81.71.410.60.2-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.