Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Upper Grand Lagoon, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 759 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Just before sunset, satellite imagery and coastal web cams started showing sea fog development along the coast in places like St.
George Island (Franklin County) and Horseshoe Beach (Dixie County). With westerly surface flow transporting mid-60s dewpoint air across the chilled waters of Apalachee Bay, fog will expand along the coast and spread inland toward Cross City and possibly Perry in the hours ahead. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for these areas until 7 am EST. This is not your typical 9 or 10 am expiration time, because a cold front later tonight will bring drier air which should get the fog to dissipate by this non- standardly early time.

So the evening update mainly focused on fog, and slightly refining the isolated to scattered showers that are accompanying the front that is currently making headway through Alabama and Georgia.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Scattered light showers will continue through tonight in association with a weak cold front. Patchy fog is also expected across the southern half of the area tonight. Drier air with decreasing cloudiness will move into the area behind the front for Thursday. Overnight lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Afternoon highs on Thursday are expected to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 131 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

For this weekend, beneficial rain is still expected on Sunday with the 13z NBM showing a high chance (70-90%) of at least one inch of rainfall for most of the area. Guidance is also consistent in showing a high shear, low CAPE scenario for severe weather. The 13z NBM currently has a medium chance (30-50%) of CAPE > 500 j/kg across the western half of the area on Sunday. In addition, ensemble probabilities for 850 mb winds > 40 knots are also 30-50%. Conceptually, if any severe weather occurs, then it is more likely to occur across the western half of the area compared to the eastern half given the cooler shelf waters of Apalachee Bay from the recent cold air outbreaks. Overall, the severe weather risk currently appears to be on the low side with this system, but not completely zero. The rainfall with this system is badly needed with somewhere between 1 and 2 inches currently expected for most locations with isolated amounts over 2 inches.

Behind this system, dry weather will prevail to start next week with mild temperatures continuing.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 759 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

A shallow cold front will make headway across the terminals for the rest of this evening into the early overnight hours. In the pre-frontal environment, fog will expand along the Big Bend coast, but it should avoid the terminals. The frontal passage will be accompanied by isolated showers and then a northerly wind shift.
Behind the front, drier air will infiltrate the boundary layer, so any IFR post-frontal stratus will be short- lived, lasting just an hour or two if at all. A trailing deck of BKN stratocumulus will gradually get thinner and then clear out during the day.

MARINE
Issued at 759 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Gentle to occasionally moderate breezes will continue over the northeastern Gulf through Saturday morning. Sea fog is expected over Apalachee Bay through Thursday morning. Winds and seas will start to increase this weekend ahead of a strong cold front with small craft advisory conditions likely on Sunday. In addition, occasional wind gusts close to gale force are expected.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 131 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

A weak cold front will usher in a drier airmass for Thursday and Friday before moisture increases again ahead of the next significant cold front this weekend. A wetting rain is expected for Sunday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 131 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

For the upcoming system this weekend, 1-2 inches of rain is expected at this time with locally higher amounts. The 13z NBM shows a 70-90% chance of at least 1 inch of rainfall with this system. This would be beneficial rainfall if it occurs given the ongoing drought. Currently, there are no significant flooding concerns other than nuisance ponding of water on roads in the heaviest downpours.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 54 72 46 73 / 20 0 0 0 Panama City 56 72 49 71 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 49 69 44 71 / 20 0 0 0 Albany 47 68 41 70 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 51 71 42 72 / 40 0 0 0 Cross City 54 74 45 75 / 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 56 67 50 65 / 10 10 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for FLZ034-115-128- 134.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for GMZ730-755-765- 775.