Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Upper Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:13PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 5:59 AM CDT (10:59 UTC) Moonrise 7:38PMMoonset 8:11AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:201910151430;;731014 Fzus52 Ktae 150644 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 244 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-151430- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 244 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019 /144 Am Cdt Tue Oct 15 2019/
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Chance of rain through the day.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of rain.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 244 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis.. Light to moderate southerly winds will increase slightly tonight and become southwesterly. Wednesday evening, moderate winds will become northerly as a cold front moves through. Winds will become easterly on Friday. Southerly winds will be 15 to 20 knots this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.17, -85.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 150934
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
534 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Aviation
[through 12z Wednesday] conditions will be deteriorating through
the period as rain and thunderstorms gradually become more
widespread and heavier across the area with lowering ceilings
ahead of a cold front. Although some areas may seeVFR conditions
this morning, by this afternoon most areas are expected to be at
MVFR or ifr and remain there through the overnight hours.

Prev discussion [310 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Active weather is expected today as the first widespread rain event
in over a month commences across the area. A deep tropical airmass
is in place with precipitable water values well over 2 inches across
the area. In addition, there is a stalled surface frontal boundary
bisecting the area and decent upper level support moving in from the
west. This spells the potential for pockets of heavy rain to occur
across the area given the tropical airmass and potential for some
training convection. If it wasn't so dry, then there would be
greater concern for the threat of flash flooding in this scenario.

However, with the ongoing drought, flash flood guidance values are
over 5 inches 3 hour or over 6 inches 6 hours over a large portion
of the area. Thus, even though isolated locations may receive
several inches of rain, the threat of widespread flash flooding
looks too low to warrant a watch at this time. However, we did
insert a mention of heavy rain into the point and click forecast.

Wpc has outlooked the area for a marginal risk of excessive rain.

There is also a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon from
spc, mainly in the form of a brief damaging wind gust. The limiting
factors are weak mid-level lapse rates along with abundant cloud
cover limiting daytime heating. However, some enhanced low and mid
level flow this afternoon could allow for a brief damaging wind
gust.

Afternoon high temperatures will be held down by the cloud cover and
rain today with highs expected to stay in the 70s across the
northern portions of the area with 80s elsewhere.

Short term [tonight through Thursday]
In the upper levels, near zonal flow will be over the region until a
trough moves in Wednesday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal
boundary will be over central al ga tonight. A cold front will move
through the region tomorrow. Tomorrow night and Thursday cold, dry
air will move into the region. The best chance for rain and thunder
will be tonight and tomorrow. Rain will clear out tomorrow evening.

A few isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with deep
layer shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. However, instability will be
low so it may be hard for storms to get organized. Skies will be
mostly cloudy through Wednesday evening. Highs will be in the low to
mid 80s tomorrow and in the 70s on Thursday. Lows will be near 70
tonight and in the 50s Wednesday night.

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
In the upper levels, a ridge will build into the region on Friday.

Weak troughing will move back in on Saturday. A deep trough will be
over the central and eastern u.S. Early next week. At the surface,
cold, dry air will remain over the region on Friday. Moisture will
return on Saturday as the next system approaches. Pops will be 30 to
60 percent Saturday through Monday. Highs will be in the 70s on
Friday. Highs will return to the 80s by Saturday. Lows will be in
the 50s and 60s.

Marine
Light to moderate southerly winds will increase slightly tonight and
become southwesterly. Wednesday evening, moderate winds will become
northerly as a cold front moves through. Winds will become easterly
on Friday. Southerly winds will be 15 to 20 knots this weekend.

Fire weather
A cold front will bring the first widespread rainfall in over a
month across the area for today into Wednesday. Behind the front, a
dry airmass is expected for Thursday and Friday, but relative
humidity values are expected to stay above red flag levels. A return
to wet conditions is possible for the weekend.

Hydrology
River levels are low. Rain chances will be elevated through tomorrow
evening. Forecast rainfall totals range from 1 to 3 inches through
tomorrow evening. Downpours may be heavy at times. Ponding of water
on roadways will be possible. Otherwise, flooding is not expected.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 84 70 86 55 78 80 70 60 0 0
panama city 83 73 85 59 77 80 70 60 0 0
dothan 79 68 80 50 73 100 80 50 0 0
albany 76 70 81 51 73 100 90 60 0 0
valdosta 82 70 82 54 74 80 60 60 0 0
cross city 87 71 86 62 80 30 60 70 10 0
apalachicola 82 73 83 61 76 70 70 60 10 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Dvd
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Dvd
marine... Mcd
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Mcd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi59 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 83°F
PCBF1 7 mi59 min E 5.1 G 6 75°F 83°F1017.1 hPa (-0.5)
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 52 mi59 min NE 5.1 G 6 76°F 83°F1017.1 hPa (-0.9)
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 53 mi74 min ENE 1.9 1018 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL11 mi63 minE 410.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1016.9 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL13 mi66 minENE 47.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E4NE6NE4S5SW7SW7SW8SW8SW9S9S6SW5W3N5N5NE4NE5CalmCalmE4CalmE4E4
1 day agoE4E8SE6SE5S6S6S6W5SW7SW7S6SW8SW6S6S4SW4SW4CalmCalmE4NE3NE6NE5NE4
2 days agoE3NE5--E5E4SW3W4SW3SW5SW10S10S9S10S8S9S8S6S6CalmCalmE3CalmCalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Bayou, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:16 AM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:12 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:00 PM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:14 PM CDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:37 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:17 PM CDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.210.80.60.60.60.60.70.80.80.80.911111.11.31.41.61.61.61.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.