Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Upper Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:12PM Thursday January 23, 2020 7:29 PM CST (01:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:44AMMoonset 5:11PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 218 Pm Cst Thu Jan 23 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds around 20 knots, becoming south around 15 knots in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Seas subsiding to 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds around 15 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms ending with the northwest wind shift.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..North winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Rain likely.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain in the morning.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 318 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis..Borderline advisory conditions will continue over the western waters through this evening before relatively benign marine conditions return and continue into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.17, -85.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 232316 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 616 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Saturday]

Moderate rain and shower activity is quickly overtaking the region from the west, and will effect ECP and DHN over the next two hours. These terminals will likely drop to MVFR CIGS during this time. Shower activity will slowly move east overnight, which will lead to flight restrictions at all terminals to MVFR levels in the early overnight hours. Flight restrictions are expected to continue to drop overnight at all terminals to LIFR levels due to lower CIGS and lower visibilities. Once the front passes through the region mid-day tomorrow, conditions will improve from west to east as drier air invades the region. VFR conditions are expected to return Friday mid-afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION [312 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Tonight and Thursday].

Rain chances will be on the increase tonight as a frontal system passes through the region. A warm front, currently along the northern Gulf of Mexico cost, will drift northwards overnight bringing widespread rain showers along with the slight chance of thunderstorms. It was noted that instability won't be particularly high overnight so the best chance for thunder will primarily be over coastal waters and in the FL Panhandle. We also can't rule out a strong storm overnight, but the severe threat is very low and will be confined to near Gulf waters and coastal zones. A brief break in the rain is possible for a few hours overnight before the cold front is expected to pass through in the morning and early afternoon hours tomorrow. This will bring one last round of showers before drier conditions move in for the end of the day.

Expect lower min temperatures tonight thanks to the cloudy conditions with most places dropping into the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM [Thursday night through Saturday Night].

The forecast period starts off with a cold front east of the region and a surface ridge of high pressure starting to move into the Central Gulf Coast States. Modest cold advection will be underway overnight with clear skies. Model data suggests that surface winds will not go calm, and with only the modest cold advection, do not expect for the forecast lows to get quite as cold as the models suggest, so will indicate lows in the upper 30s across our northwestern zones to the low to mid 40s in the Southeast Florida Big Bend.

Saturday will be a clear, but cool day as high pressure transits the area and cold advection ends. With mostly sunny skies expect temperatures to get into the 60s across the region and possibly even near 70 in the SE Florida Big Bend.

Saturday night will be a tricky forecast. Initially skies will be clear with a very dry airmass, but with a fast pattern across the Southern US, the next storm system will approach after midnight. This will bring an increasingly thick cloud canopy to the region that should greatly slow or effectively stop cooling. Thus, have gone above MOS values by about 2-4 degrees across the area. This results in a forecast with lows generally in the lower 40s area- wide as opposed to the mid to upper 30s as advertised in the latest MOS guidance.

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday].

There's quite a bit of model variability this cycle as is typically expected in such a speedy pattern across the Eastern CONUS. In the mid range on Sunday and Monday, the models do have some agreement with the Gulf low pressure area moving mainly south of our land areas, generating rain across the region. Behind this system, there is little if any airmass modification, so don't expect any cold air intrusions in this portion of the forecast.

The next shortwave that comes through on Tuesday night into Wednesday has some run to run inconsistencies and differences in the models. Thus, have opted to keep PoPs fairly close to climatology, with only subtle adjustments to the forecast where there is any overlap in the models for dry conditions.

Beyond Wednesday, the forecast becomes highly uncertain as there are significant differences between the Euro and GFS with respect to northern/southern stream energy phasing across the Central Plains on Thursday - leading to a strong Gulf low pressure area. The Euro has been suggesting this won't occur, with the GFS showing significant cyclogenesis. At this time scale, the prudent solution is to show a much weaker outcome until better model agreement emerges.

MARINE.

Borderline advisory conditions will continue over the western waters through this evening before relatively benign marine conditions return and continue into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER.

Moisture is on the increase with showers expected this evening into tonight. Red Flag conditions are not a concern at this time, although dispersion values will be elevated Friday afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible overnight into Friday morning.

HYDROLOGY.

Rainfall amounts for the next several days will be on the light side, thus there are no flood concerns. Routed flows from upstream of the region have tapered off, and as such expect the Apalachicola River to drop below flood stage by Friday afternoon.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 55 73 42 63 42 / 60 60 0 0 0 Panama City 58 69 43 62 47 / 80 50 0 0 0 Dothan 53 64 37 59 42 / 90 50 0 0 0 Albany 53 69 40 59 41 / 80 70 0 0 0 Valdosta 53 73 45 62 39 / 60 50 0 0 0 Cross City 55 74 45 66 41 / 30 30 0 0 0 Apalachicola 59 69 46 61 46 / 70 60 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM . Dobbs SHORT TERM . Godsey LONG TERM . Godsey AVIATION . Bunker MARINE . Godsey FIRE WEATHER . Humphreys HYDROLOGY . Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi60 min 61°F
PCBF1 7 mi60 min 60°F 61°F1016.2 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 52 mi60 min 58°F 55°F1016.5 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 53 mi105 min S 6 1017 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE6NE6NE5NE6E3E6E6NE5NE4NW4CalmCalmE4E3E6E9E7E6E9SE8E8NE5NE6
1 day agoN5N8N8N7N6N8NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Bayou, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:44 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:58 AM CST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 04:11 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:12 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:51 PM CST     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.10.10.20.40.60.81.11.21.21.21.110.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.