NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A deepening area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast will contribute to reinforced northeasterly flow. This will effectively push a stationary boundary, currently across the region, offshore across our western waters. This will lead to reduced precip chances tomorrow across most of the region. The FL Panhandle, given the proximity to the front will have the best chances to see some instability tomorrow afternoon, but will overall have to work against relatively drier air being advected in. Some light scattered showers, forced by the aforementioned area of low pressure may move across the region tomorrow, they're expected to be shallow and shortlived.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the low 70s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A large upper level low with two weak areas of low pressure, one currently off the eastern US coast, and another across northern Louisiana, will consolidate through the early part of the week while the local area sees a few weak mid-level disturbances rotate through the southern periphery of this consolidated upper level low. The generally cloudy conditions that we've seen as of late are likely to continue but we will see a brief return to southwest flow and scattered sunshine before scattered showers and some thunderstorms develop on Tuesday afternoon. With a little more sunshine, we should hit the mid to upper 80s across much of the area.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The consolidated upper level trough moves east of the area through the end of the upcoming week and this will lead to drier northwesterly flow in the low to mid levels across the area. This will likely bring rain chances down and, for those who have been waiting for a long time, more widespread sunshine to the region.
Isolated to scattered rain chances will stick around on Wednesday afternoon but conditions will generally trend drier and warmer by the time we get to Friday with high temperatures nearing the low 90s.

By the weekend and into early next week the pattern potentially becomes highly amplified across the US and the upper level trough across the eastern US could amplify and move back west. This would bring a return to cloudy conditions and rain chances by the weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail for a few more hours at most TAF sites before dropping to MVFR to IFR later tonight into Monday morning. A few quick-moving light showers are possible the next couple of hours at all TAF sites due to light to moderate easterly winds. MVFR to VFR conditions are set to return Monday afternoon with the best chance for a few showers, maybe a thunderstorm, near KECP and KTLH.

MARINE
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Winds will be generally be light across the waters over the next several days, but given the presence of a stationary front and waves of low pressure, wind direction will be variable through the next few days. This front will also keep the weather rather unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms but drier conditions could develop across area waters by the latter part of the upcoming week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Poor to fair dispersions possible through Tuesday, however, given how saturated most of the region is due to recent wetting rains there are currently minimal fire weather concerns. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be along the FL Panhandle with decreasing chances elsewhere through Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

An extreme event has unfolded late last evening into the overnight hours. Significant flash flooding was observed over parts of Henry, Houston, and Jackson Counties with several spots exceeding an estimated 1-in-200 year annual recurrence interval. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches occurred, a good portion of that within a matter of a couple hours. Although the probability has lowered, there is still a chance at brief heavy rains this afternoon across the existing flood watch. These areas are extremely vulnerable to any additional rainfall, and it won't take much to cause issues.
Flash flood guidance is around 1-3 inches in 1 hour or about 2-4 inches in 3 hours. WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) across the Florida Panhandle Monday and Tuesday as well to account for the potential for locally heavy rainfall continuing. Can't rule out isolated areas of 3-6 inches (or possibly more) through the next couple days.

On the river side, the Kinchafoonee at Preston has crested and is now out of flood stage. The Kinchafoonee and Muckalee basins should see action stage levels over the next couple days. Along the ACF, the Chattahoochee at Columbia L&D as well as the Apalachicola at Blountstown are also forecast to reach action stage. Depending on where these bands of heavy rain set up, some of the smaller creeks could see quick rises, and some mainstem rivers may also see some rises. But currently, no mainstem rivers are forecast to reach flood stage.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 70 82 68 85 / 20 40 20 50 Panama City 71 83 71 85 / 30 60 50 60 Dothan 68 80 68 82 / 20 30 30 40 Albany 69 81 66 83 / 10 20 10 30 Valdosta 69 82 68 85 / 10 20 10 30 Cross City 72 85 70 88 / 10 50 10 40 Apalachicola 72 81 73 84 / 30 50 40 60

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.