Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palm Valley, FL

NEAR TERM
Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Clouds will gradually increase through the night, as moisture advects into area from the Gulf. As the high pressure area builds more toward the north Tonight, the flow will become more from the north northeast. At the coast, the northeast flow will bring milder air into area from the relatively warmer coastal waters. A weak inverted trough is also expected to develop over the coastal waters late Tonight which will increase coastal cloud cover toward dawn, along with the chance for a few rain showers. Further inland, another freeze is expected.

Lows mid 20s to lower 30s across SE GA, lower 30s inland NE FL, to the mid to upper 30s coastal NE FL.

NEAR TERM
Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Clouds will gradually increase through the night, as moisture advects into area from the Gulf. As the high pressure area builds more toward the north Tonight, the flow will become more from the north northeast. At the coast, the northeast flow will bring milder air into area from the relatively warmer coastal waters. A weak inverted trough is also expected to develop over the coastal waters late Tonight which will increase coastal cloud cover toward dawn, along with the chance for a few rain showers. Further inland, another freeze is expected.

Lows mid 20s to lower 30s across SE GA, lower 30s inland NE FL, to the mid to upper 30s coastal NE FL.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

A rare and potentially impactful winter weather event remains on track Tuesday night into midday Wednesday for southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida. Model trends are consistently increasing the snow and freezing rain potential over the last few days, with models also coming more into agreement with each other on impacts. The current forecast has the highest chances for measurable snow (40-65% chance of 1" accumulation) from the line of Statenville to Waycross to Darien GA northward. For areas south of there but along and north of I-10, there is a medium (40-60%)
chance of freezing rain accumulation greater than 0.1" and a low (20-30%) chance of ice accumulations reaching 0.25". Latest 13Z NBM guidance is showing a slight increase in probabilities from the overnight runs, with a little dip southward towards Starke/High Springs FL for 30-40% chance of 0.1" ice accumulation. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning this afternoon, in effect for Tuesday night into Wednesday for southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida, west of the St. Johns river basin and north of (not including)
Marion county.

Definition of local criteria for a Winter Storm Watch/Warning: "Accumulation of one inch or more of snow per event, and/or any accumulation of ice or sleet that impacts transportation, commerce, or power."

Ice accumulations can cause significant impacts to power lines, utilities, trees, some roofs and cause very dangerous transportation conditions, especially accumulations as rise above 0.10" or even 0.25". In addition to the medium threat of snow for portions of southeast Georgia, accumulating snow may mask icy road conditions beneath, driving in these conditions would be extremely dangerous. It is encouraged to avoid travel if possible, and if travel is unavoidable, check road conditions beforehand and keep an emergency kit in the car.

In addition to the moderate risk of ice and/or snow accumulation, there is high confidence in dangerously cold wind chills and multiple nights of freezing conditions. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s, with bitter wind chills in the teens to 20s area-wide as northerly winds pick up Tuesday night. Precipitation chances remain possible along the coast Wednesday night, however confidence is low at this time that we will receive anything other than a cold rain since the precipitation chances currently line up well with above-freezing forecast low temperatures.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Thursday and Friday will remain cold, with highs in the 40s to low 50s, with lows in the 20s to mid 30s. The lowest wind chills both mornings will be in the upper teens to 20s over southeast Georgia and most of northeast Florida, Cold Weather Advisories and Freeze Warnings will likely be issued both mornings for some locations to finish out the week. Showers will remain possible (20-30% chance)
along the coast Thursday, however temperatures will be above freezing at this time, so there are no concerns for any wintry mix.

Temperatures Saturday will remain about 10 degrees cooler than climatology, mainly in the 50s to lower 60s across the area, but by Sunday temperatures will return to normal, rising to above 60 area-wide. No precipitation is forecast this weekend, with partly cloudy skies and relatively calm winds. The only concern this weekend will be another round of cold temperatures Saturday morning, with lows dipping into the 20s across inland locations, and lower 30s along the coast. Saturday night into Sunday morning, it will be more mild, however most locations across inland southeast Georgia will see lows hit freezing.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

The 00Z TAF period will begin with increasing mid level clouds through 12Z and northerly winds 5-8 knots for inland TAF sites to around 10 knots at the coastal TAF sites as high pressure builds across the TN valley to the northwest. Lower clouds, MVFR decks between 1.5 kft to 2.5 kft will begin to move onshore from 13-15Z to the coastal and duval TAF sites under overcast mid level clouds and northerly winds increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots by 16Z-18Z. An area of low pressure will move east through the Gulf of Mexico towards the FL peninsula Tuesday with a shield of rain overspreading the region from the south in the afternoon hours with light steady rain prevailing after 21Z at all terminals.

By 00Z, moderate steady rain will move in from the south with ceilings lowering to IFR levels between 0.5 kft and 1.0 kft, but probabilities too low for LIFR ceilings to end the period. After 02Z, temperatures will be near to below freezing at SSI with prevailing steady rain/snow mix there. Also have included PROB30 group for freezing rain at SSI between 02-06Z as NBM probabilities increase steadily towards 06Z as surface temperatures drop. Too early for freezing rain or mixed precipitation at KJAX, but mixed precipitation may be included after 06Z for KJAX and KVQQ in the 12Z TAF forecast.



MARINE
Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

High pressure will be located to the northwest Today, then more toward the north Tonight. An inverted trough is expected to develop over the coastal waters Tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will be located to the northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night, as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf. A broad ridge of high pressure will extend down the southeastern US coast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A trough of low pressure will be just east of the region Thursday into Friday with high pressure to the west. High pressure will build over the southeastern US Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions begin Tuesday. A period of Gales will be possible Tuesday night.

CLIMATE
Issued at 412 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures.

Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG), Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV).

DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ 1/21 | JAX | 30 (1985) | 7 (1985)
CRG | 30 (1985) | 9 (1985)
AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011)
GNV | 29 (1985) | 10 (1985)
------------------------------------------ 1/22 | JAX | 41 (2022) | 16 (1985)
CRG | 47 (1985) | 18 (1985)
AMG | 40 (2022) | 16 (1985)
GNV | 46 (2022) | 17 (1985)
------------------------------------------ 1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011)
CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011)
AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011)
GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 44 27 37 23 / 50 90 10 10 SSI 47 31 42 31 / 50 100 30 20 JAX 49 31 44 31 / 50 100 50 30 SGJ 53 36 50 39 / 60 100 70 40 GNV 52 32 44 32 / 50 100 40 20 OCF 54 34 47 36 / 50 100 50 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-225-322-422-425-522.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220- 225-232-236-237-322-422-425-522.

Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-237- 322-422-425-522.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ152>154-165-166-264-350-364.

Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450-452.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ454.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-472.

Gale Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for AMZ470-472-474.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ474.