Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palm Valley, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:14PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 12:22 AM EDT (04:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:29PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:202009290930;;519883 Fzus52 Kjax 290109 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 909 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-290930- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 909 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Tonight..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south southwest around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 909 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Synopsis.. A strong cold front will cross our local waters towards Sunset on Tuesday. Showers and a few strong Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of this front on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Northwesterly winds will surge in the wake of the cold frontal passage on Tuesday night, with caution level speeds expected through Wednesday morning. A dry cold front will then cross our region on Thursday night, followed by northerly winds increasing on Friday night as high pressure builds to the north of our area. High pressure will then Wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Saturday, resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds and building seas.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 26, 2020 at 1200 utc... 69 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 77 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 84 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 91 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm Valley, FL
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location: 30.22, -81.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 290157 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 957 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY . . STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY .

UPDATE.

Late evening surface analysis depicts a strong cold front extending from the eastern Great Lakes region southward through the Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi River Valleys. Aloft . deep troughing extends from the western Great Lakes to the southern Plains, with an embedded potent shortwave trough diving south-southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the Mid- Mississippi Valley. This weather pattern was resulting in gradually deepening west-southwesterly flow aloft over our region, with lighter south-southeast flow in the low levels per the evening sounding at Jacksonville. Light showers were migrating quickly east-northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico across locations south of I-10 this evening, with mostly mid and high altitude cloud cover gradually thinning to the west of our region as convection moves further offshore from the northeast FL coast. Temperatures and dewpoints remain in the 70s area-wide as of 02Z.

We expect light showers to occasionally stream across north central and portions of northeast FL through around midnight, with thinning mid and high altitude cloud cover overnight leading to low stratus development during the predawn and early morning hours. Convection igniting over the northeast Gulf waters towards sunrise could send a few showers into western portions of the Suwannee Valley towards dawn, but most locations will remain dry from about midnight through the early morning hours on Tuesday. Lows will remain in the low to mid 70s area-wide.

The potent shortwave trough diving south-southeastward from the upper Midwest tonight will pivot eastward through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday afternoon, aiding in the sharpening of a deep trough that will be progressing into the southeastern states. Flow will become south-southwesterly throughout the troposphere ahead of this trough, with bulk speed shear increasing to 35-45 knots locally on Tuesday afternoon. A few waves of convection will traverse our region on Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching strong cold front, with strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours expected to develop. Stronger activity will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40-50 mph and briefly heavy downpours as activity races east-northeastward. Given that additional downpours fell over most of St. Johns and Flagler Counties again today, we will keep the Flood Watch for these counties going through Tuesday. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening, with locally higher totals possible. A few peaks of filtered sunshine on Tuesday morning and breezy south-southwesterly winds will likely boost highs to the mid and upper 80s along the I-95 corridor, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as convection begins by early afternoon well inland.

MARINE.

A strong cold front will cross our local waters towards sunset on Tuesday. A southerly evening wind surge has brought southerly winds up to near 15 knots, but winds will become southwesterly and will subside after midnight. Showers and a few strong thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the cold front on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Seas of 3-5 feet will prevail offshore during the next several days, with 3-4 foot seas near shore dropping back to 2-3 feet by midweek. Northwesterly winds will surge in the wake of the cold frontal passage on Tuesday night, with Caution level speeds of 15-20 knots expected through Wednesday morning. A dry cold front will then cross our region on Thursday night, followed by northerly winds increasing on Friday night as high pressure builds to the north of our area. High pressure will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Saturday, resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds and building seas.

Rip Currents: Low risk expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as offshore winds prevail.

HYDROLOGY.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across already saturated locations in St. Johns and Flagler Counties on Tuesday, with locally higher totals possible. Urban and low lying areas may experience additional flooding during the afternoon and early evening hours.

PREV DISCUSSION [833 PM EDT].

Near Term. /through Wednesday/ .

Surface high pressure will remain to the east northeast of the region through Tonight, continuing a moist generally southerly flow. At 500mb the region will on the east side of a broad trough. Weak short waves will move northeast through this trough through Tonight. The combination of diurnal heating along with ample moisture and instability from upper energy will provide for continued convective activity Today. The loss of daytime heating will decrease chances Tonight, but passing showers still expected. Potential for strong storms with locally heavy rainfall will continue Today. Continuing the flood watch for St Johns and Flagler, where heavy rains fell yesterday, and again this afternoon.

For Tuesday, a strong cold front will move into SE GA Tuesday morning, then sweep into NE FL Tuesday afternoon, pushing to the southeast of forecast area Tuesday evening. A round of strong to possibly severe storms is expected to lead this frontal passage. Gusty winds along with locally heavy rainfall anticipated with these storms. The core of the upper low will trail the front by about 12 hours, with this energy coming through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most moisture will be southeast of the region though, so not expecting much more than a few lingering showers into Wednesday with the upper feature. Clouds will decrease through the day Wednesday as surface high pressure builds from the west. With the upper energy trailing well behind the frontal system, this could limit severe storm potential Tuesday.

A significant change will follow the frontal passage, with dewpoints falling about 20 degrees in the 24 hour period from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. That will lead to a noticeably drier and cooler feeling airmass.

Temperatures will be above normal through Tuesday, then below normal for Wednesday.

Short Term. /Wednesday night through Saturday/ .

High pressure will stretch across the region Wednesday night through Thursday. This is expected to be a dry period with mainly clear skies. A trough of low pressure will move southeast across the area Thursday night, but is expected to be a dry passage, with only a few extra clouds. Strong high pressure will build from the northwest Friday, then to the north Friday night through Saturday. The position of this high will lead to an onshore flow pattern. Most of the area will be dry through Saturday, but a few coastal showers can not be ruled out.

Highs will trend near normal this period, but with the lower dewpoints in place, overnight lows will trend below normal.

Long Term. /Saturday night through Monday/ .

High pressure will be north of the region this period, continuing onshore flow pattern. A good bit of uncertainty does exist in forecast late this weekend into early next week, based on potential tropical moisture that could move north into area. At minimum, expect mainly coastal showers in the onshore flow pattern, but if tropical system develops moisture would increase leading to a greater chance for showers. Given uncertainty at this point, trending this forecast toward coastal showers from onshore flow.

Temperatures will trend near to a little below normal this period.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z. Isolated brief showers or sprinkles will be possible through around 05Z at the northeast FL terminals, with ceilings generally from 4,000 - 7,000 feet prevailing. MVFR conditions will likely develop at VQQ towards 07Z and GNV towards 09Z, with ceilings then expected to quickly lower to IFR and then LIFR by 11Z. MVFR conditions will likely begin at JAX and CRG towards 11Z. MVFR ceilings will likely prevail after 13Z as surface winds become southwesterly and sustained at 5-10 knots. Thunderstorms will move across the regional terminals after 15Z. We added PROB30 groups to each terminal for gusty winds up to 30 knots and IFR visibilities after 16Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 70 81 55 76 54 / 10 90 50 0 0 SSI 74 84 60 77 60 / 30 90 80 0 0 JAX 72 86 59 78 58 / 40 90 70 0 0 SGJ 73 89 63 78 62 / 40 90 60 0 0 GNV 72 85 60 79 56 / 20 90 60 0 0 OCF 72 86 61 79 57 / 20 80 50 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Coastal Flagler-Coastal St. Johns-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns.

GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTJF1 11 mi52 min 77°F 75°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 12 mi52 min S 4.1 G 6 77°F 80°F1013 hPa
BLIF1 14 mi52 min S 5.1 G 7 78°F 1013.6 hPa78°F
DMSF1 15 mi52 min 81°F
JXUF1 15 mi52 min 81°F
NFDF1 18 mi52 min SSW 2.9 G 6 70°F 1012.6 hPa
41117 22 mi56 min 80°F2 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 26 mi82 min SSE 8 G 8 79°F 82°F1013 hPa (+0.7)74°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 32 mi52 min Calm G 1.9 83°F 79°F1012.7 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 34 mi52 min 79°F 80°F2 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 40 mi97 min WSW 1 75°F 1014 hPa74°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL10 mi29 minS 410.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1012.6 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL12 mi30 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F90%1012.6 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL15 mi29 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F75°F94%1012.4 hPa
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL18 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair75°F73°F96%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCRG

Wind History from CRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS4SW4SW3S3CalmS4SW6SW9SW12SW10NW7W4S4CalmCalmSE3S5S4S4S4S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE8NE8NE8NE9NE4CalmNE5NE5CalmE4SE3CalmE6CalmSE4
2 days agoSW3SW5W3SW3W4NW4W3W3W4N6N4N6N8NW9NE7E10E6E8E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Landing, ICWW, Florida (2)
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Oak Landing
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Tue -- 03:00 AM EDT     -1.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:08 AM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:16 PM EDT     -2.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:32 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8-0.3-1.4-1.8-1.5-0.8-0.30.20.71.11.41.20.6-0.3-1.4-2-1.9-1.2-0.40.30.91.41.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     1.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:56 PM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:07 PM EDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2-2.1-1.7-0.90.31.21.71.81.50.5-0.7-1.6-1.9-2-1.8-1.1-01.11.82.11.91.1-0.2-1.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.