Saturday, November28, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday November 28, 2020 10:09 PM CST (04:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:57PMMoonset 5:46AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 931 Pm Cst Sat Nov 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday evening through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 13 to 18 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Monday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 931 Pm Cst Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis..A light to moderate northerly to northeasterly flow will continue through tonight behind a stalled front over the marine area. Moderate to strong onshore flow returns by Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front from the west and also as the boundary lifts northward as a warm front. Numerous showers and a few Thunderstorms develop Sunday into Sunday evening, a few of which could be strong to severe. A strong offshore flow is expected Sunday night through Monday night behind the passing cold front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
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location: 30.22, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 290014 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 614 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020

AVIATION. 00Z issuance . High end IFR and low end MVFR CIGs were present at TAF sites BFM and MOB at time of issuance with PNS being VFR. These conditions are expected to persist to around 6Z-7Z at BFM and MOB before gradually rising briefly to VFR. Rain showers are anticipated to begin by 9Z at these sites at which time ceilings will begin to gradually lower again to MVFR. PNS will gradually lower to MVFR by 9Z and is anticipated to drop to IFR around 12-13Z with rain showers also expected at this time. CIGs are expected to continue lowering to IFR conditions by 12Z-13Z at all TAF sites. Concerns for locally heavy rainfall and perhaps isolated severe storms increase going into Sunday afternoon. JEH/88

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 410 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/ . The surface cold front has pushed well offshore early this afternoon and high pressure continues to build into our region well behind this feature. Regional GOES-16 imagery shows overcast low cloud cover holding strong across much of our forecast area this afternoon, which along with some weak cold air advection, has allowed temperatures to remain cooler than expected across much of southeast MS and southwest AL. We have lowered forecast highs to the lower to mid 60s across most locations along and northwest of the I-65 corridor through the remainder of the afternoon, while the rest of the region should manage to top out around 70 the lower to mid 70s.

The forecast challenge through the next 24 hours will continue to focus on the potential for heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms going into Sunday. A mid to upper level low pressure system located in the vicinity of northeastern NM and the western TX panhandle this afternoon is forecast to track eastward toward OK through early Sunday morning. A moist mainly zonal flow pattern aloft will prevail across our region this evening through early Sunday morning. The surface boundary is forecast to remain positioned offshore over the northern Gulf of Mexico through late tonight and will extend eastward from an area of surface low pressure developing off the southeast TX and southwest LA coasts overnight into early Sunday morning. A cool and light northerly to northeasterly surface flow will persist across our forecast area tonight and expected overnight lows to range in the 50s north of the I-10 corridor and around 60 to the lower 60s near the immediate coast and beaches. Cloudy skies will generally continue through late tonight. Weak ascent could result in the development of isolated light rain showers over southern portions of southeast MS and southwest AL this evening, but a better chance of rain will arrive overnight into early Sunday morning as ascent spreads east-northeast toward our region within increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of the upper level low. We have kept POPs in the 60-80% range across southeast MS and adjacent portions of far southwest AL, with rain chances tapered to 20-40% over the rest of southwest/south central AL and the western FL panhandle (lowest in our far eastern zones).

The upper low will continue to progress eastward during the day Sunday perhaps taking on more of a slightly positively tilted upper level trough along and just east of the Mississippi Valley by early Sunday evening. The surface low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf should also lift northeastward toward southern LA by midday Sunday, then near the MS/AL border by early Sunday evening. The surface boundary over the northern Gulf should also lift northward to near the coast by midday Sunday and then inland into portions of southwest and south central AL by late Sunday afternoon ahead of the lifting surface low. Large scale ascent gradually spreads across our forecast area through the day Sunday, and expect widespread coverage of rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms over our region. Widespread 1-2" of rainfall is expected, but a few places could locally receive over 3" of rain with this event, and have included mention of locally heavy rainfall in the forecast. Overall flash flooding potential remains marginal considering antecedent conditions, but if heavy rains fall over a short period of time, there could be very localized flooding. It does appear that a narrow warm sector does penetrate inland south of the advancing warm front and ahead of the approaching surface low/cold front to our west Sunday afternoon and evening. The question remains how much instability will be available. The SPC HREF ensemble mean has 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE advancing into southern portions of southwest and south central AL and much of the western FL panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening, and also even shows potential of slightly higher than 1000 J/KG along the immediate AL/western FL coast. There will also be plentiful shear as 850 mb level flow strengthens to 40-50 knots along with strong deep layer shear to match. Low level storm relative helicity also increases to 200-400 m2/s2 by Sunday afternoon. The environmental setup will be favorable for supercells and line segments across our region. There will be concern for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes, especially if convection taps into higher instability. SPC has left the Marginal severe risk for now, but wouldn't be surprised if higher severe probs may be warranted over southern and eastern portions of our area Sunday afternoon/evening if confidence in higher instability increases. Considerable cloud cover and precipitation should keep max temperatures in the mid to upper 60s inland and a little warmer in the lower 70s near the immediate coast. /21

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/ . As the upper level shortwave system that brought Sunday into Sunday evening's weather moves off, a second, stronger shortwave trough has dived south over the Northern Plains to the Midwest, eventually organizing into a closed upper system over the Tennessee River Valley. A strong cold front moves southeast over the Southeast as a surface low associated with the first upper trough moves off to the northeast Sunday night. The Southeast remains under northerly flow through the rest of the Short Term. The flow weakens as surface high pressure that developed along the eastern edge of the US Rockies moves east over the Southern Plains, but remains northerly.

The chance for strong to severe storms continues into Sunday evening as the surface low moves northeast across the forecast area. There is still some uncertainty in how far inland the warm front associated with the system moves. The only item to add to the Short Term severe weather discussion is the risk of severe weather lasting into Sunday evening, with the chance for strong to severe storms shifting east of the forecast area through 03z/9pm as the cold front begins to cross the forecast area.

Temperatures drop to below seasonal norms behind the front, as a significantly colder airmass moves over the Southeast. Sunday night will be the warmest night in the Short Term, with low temperatures ranging from the low 40s west of the Alabama River to near 50 southeast. Monday and Tuesday nights will see the first freezes of the coming cold season, with low temperatures ranging from the low to mid 20s along and north of Highway 84 to upper 20s along and north of the I-10 corridor. Around 30 to mid 30s are expected closer to the coast. A Freeze Watch will likely be issued in the near future for Monday night. High temperatures in the low to mid 50s area expected Monday and Tuesday, well below seasonal norms. /16

EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/ . A closed upper system dives south over the Plains into Thursday, stalls into Friday, then begins to move east. Guidance is inconsistent in the eastward path and speed of the upper system, with formation and path of an associated surface low over the central Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF is advertising a bit slower and more northward path of the upper system, with the forecast area remaining under weaker southerly flow longer than the GFS, with the GFS bringing rain back to the western portions of the Southeast sooner than the ECMWF. Both are advertising a cold front moving across the forecast area late Thursday night through Friday. With the GFS bringing rain back sooner, a cooler solution is advertised than the ECMWF. Have blended the solutions for the Extended, with rain returning Thursday, and temperatures around to a bit below seasonal norms until frontal passage friday beings below seasonal temperatures back tot he forecast area for the weekend. /16

MARINE . A light to moderate northeasterly to easterly flow persists over the marine area through tonight behind a stalled boundary over the northern Gulf. The boundary lifts northward as a warm front on Sunday, and expect south to southwest winds to increase to 20-25 knots Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, then turn northwesterly 20-25 knots with gusts over 30 knots Sunday night through Monday night. Seas build to 4-7 feet near shore and 7-9 feet well offshore Sunday night. Small Craft Advisories continue Sunday afternoon through late Monday night. /21

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 11 mi40 min NE 9.7 G 14 66°F 1018.3 hPa
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 16 mi100 min ENE 6 64°F 1018.3 hPa
WBYA1 20 mi52 min 71°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 64°F 70°F1017.8 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi52 min NE 11 G 13 64°F 1018.1 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi70 min NNE 9.9 G 11 64°F 1018.2 hPa (+0.5)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 28 mi70 min NNW 14 64°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.3)
MBPA1 35 mi52 min 63°F 62°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 40 mi52 min NNE 4.1 G 7 62°F 68°F1017.7 hPa
PTOA1 40 mi52 min 62°F 59°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi52 min 62°F 67°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi74 minNNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F59°F84%1017.6 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi75 minN 4 mi61°F59°F94%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJKA

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:46 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM CST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:57 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:58 PM CST     1.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.310.80.60.40.20.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.811.11.21.31.51.61.71.81.71.6

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:45 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM CST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:55 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:05 PM CST     0.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.20.10-0-000.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91110.90.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current



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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.