Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eden Isle, LA

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Overall, there has been little change in the forecast from the previous packages. A potent area of low pressure in the Midwest and Great Lakes states will drive a very strong cold front through the region Sunday night. An equally strong arctic high of at least 1030mb will then quickly build in behind the front on Monday. In the upper levels, an associated longwave trough will continue to dominate the eastern half of the country through the short term period, and this will keep deep layer northerly flow in place. The end result will be a colder and drier stretch of weather after the front moves through.

However, before the front approaches, Sunday will exceptionally warm as strong onshore flow develops and ushers in a significantly warmer and more humid airmass by the afternoon hours. PWATS will quickly rise to around 1.25 inches and temperatures will surge into the low to even middle 80s. These conditions will help to prime the atmosphere in advance of the front as conditions turn fairly unstable. MLCAPE values are still expected to peak around 1500 J/KG Sunday evening in response to steepening mid-level lapse rates that could reach as high as 7.5C/km just ahead of the front. With strong low level forcing and ample positive vorticity advection and lift aloft in place, there will be little if any convective inhibition to speak of in the evening hours. As a result, a fairly stout line of thunderstorms will develop over the Arklatex and then push to the east-southeast into the region Sunday evening. This fast moving line will encounter marginally favorable shear conditions as it moves in with effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots and 0-1km SRH values of around 150m2/s2.
Although the dynamics will be somewhat limiting, there will still be the potential for a few bowing segments and damaging wind events to occur over the northern and western portion of the CWA

Later Sunday night, all of the convectively aided high resolution guidance indicates that the initial line of convection will begin to weaken as it moves toward the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts.
However, the development of another LLJ over southern Mississippi and lower Alabama will support the development of a pre-frontal trough axis that could initially develop somewhere in the vicinity of New Orleans and Gulfport. Increasing low level shear will take hold in advance of this pre-frontal trough axis with 0-1km SRH values increasing to around 200 m2/s2 and effective shear rising to 40 to 50 knots. With ample instability in place and these favorable shear parameters, a few supercells could form over extreme southeast Louisiana, the offshore waters, and the Mississippi coast during the overnight hours Sunday, generally between 2 AM and 5 AM. This is the area that would have the highest risk of seeing a tornado or two develop during the overnight hours, and we will need to monitor the trends to see if this pre-frontal trough continues to be shown in the guidance.

Monday will be a day of rapid clearing as very strong negative voriticty, dry air, and cold air advection takes hold.
Temperatures will start off in the 40s behind the front Monday morning and will only rise into the 50s. These readings are a good 20 degrees below average for this time of year. Very windy conditions are also expected on Monday in the wake of the front as the strong high builds in from the north. Winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph are expected along the coast and south of the tidal lakes. Given these conditions, a wind advisory is now in effect for these areas. The other concern will be the high potential for wildfires to occur as humidity values fall below 25 percent. A fire weather watch or red flag warning will likely be issued during the day tomorrow. The colder air will continue to feed in on the back of a strong 925mb thermal trough axis Monday night, and a light freeze is anticipated for the northern half of the forecast area. Given the warm conditions and greening up that has occurred a freeze watch will likely be issued tomorrow and this will be followed up by a freeze warning for the area on Monday that will cover the Monday night freeze event. The colder conditions will persist on Tuesday as a reinforcing dry frontal passage occurs in the deep layer northwest flow regime. Highs will once again only warm into the 50s and lows will cool into the 30s and lower 40s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer due to the heart of the thermal trough finally beginning to shift to the east. A light freeze may once again occur in the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages though.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Persistent troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS and a strong ridge over the Rockies and Plains will keep northerly flow in place through Saturday. This will result in continued very dry conditions through the end of the week. However, temperatures will quickly modify in the long term period as the main thermal trough axis shifts well to the northeast of the region. In the low levels, a broad surface high pressure system will remain centered over the region and this will keep winds fairly light and variable. Temperatures will remain cooler than average in the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday, but will climb above average by Friday and Saturday as readings reach into the low to mid 80s.
Given the dry airmass in place, a decent diurnal range of around 30 degrees will allow lows to fall into the 50s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will remain in place at all of the terminals through Sunday afternoon. Winds will turn breezy at over 12 knots by 18z from the south and these winds will persist through 00z. However, a strong cold front will move into the area between 00z and 06z.
A line of showers and storms will accompany the frontal passage a brief period of MVFR and occasionally IFR visibility and ceiling restrictions will accompany the frontal passage. Winds will also quickly turn to the northwest after the front moves through.

MARINE
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A deepening area of low pressure to the north of the region will allow winds to increase to 15 to 20 knots by the afternoon hours over the waters. Sunday night into early Monday will see a strong cold front pass through the waters. As the front passes, winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase to 30 to 35 knots with higher gusts. These gale conditions will push seas over 12 feet in the open Gulf waters creating very hazardous boating conditions. The gale conditions will slightly improve into small craft advisory conditions Monday night, and further easing of the winds will occur on Tuesday as another high pressure system becomes more centered over the waters. As the high becomes centered over the waters on Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and fall to 10 knots or less. Seas will also decrease back to 3 feet or less by Wednesday morning. These more benign conditions will linger through the end of the week as the high pressure system remains in place over the waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ056>060- 064>070-076>078-080-082-084-086>090.

GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.