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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 951 Am Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 951 Am Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure will continue to slide eastward over the next few days with onshore flow returning today. Southerly winds will pick up Friday ahead of the next cold front that is expected late Saturday/early Sunday. The cold front will move through overnight and behind this front, winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase. Small craft advisories will be needed across all zones. High pressure slowly builds in through mid- week with offshore winds subsiding and impacts reducing.

FXUS64 KLIX 071718 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1118 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 446 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Chilly night with temperatures dropping like a rock last night immediately after sunset. The temp drop did slow around 6z but just about everyone continued to drop. As typical the drainage areas did fall pretty good but once again the biggest difference is the west bank in the NO metro where NBG at 8z had already fallen to 34 while MSY was still at 42 and NEW all the way up to 54. Yep that is 20 degrees over 14 miles, the lake along with being in the bend of a river or in a drainage area of a river (similar to a valley) makes a big difference.

Thursday through Friday night...The cooler air currently in place is only here for a limited time as we will quickly moderate today.
Pretty large ridge over the central CONUS with the ridge axis stretching from the northwestern Gulf to the MT/ND border. This ridge will push east as strong Pac energy begins to come inland. In addition this incoming energy will also kick a disturbance around the tip of the Baja to the northeast and this will start to flatten out the bottom of the ridge quickly this morning with southwest flow aloft returning around early afternoon. At the sfc our high pressure center will begin to approach the Atlantic coast around FL/GA around midday or early afternoon today. This will allow for return flow to set up and the combination of this and the change to southwest flow aloft will help moisture to start to recover. We have been cleaned out rather good with our PW down to 0.25" on last nights sndg and dewpoints well into the 30s and some lower 40s. We should see about a 5-7 degree warm up for highs today across most o the area but the biggest jump will be morning lows tomorrow as many locations could easily be 10-15 degrees warmer. We will continue to warm up Friday but we could also see a few very light showers associated with WAA/isentropic lift tomorrow. However whatever reaches the deck will be very light as most of it will likely remain as virga.

Saturday and Saturday night...unlike the last few systems we will have been in the recovery phase for well over 24 hours by Saturday afternoon. At the sfc high pressure is already well east of the area with southerly winds in place since Friday morning. This should lead to dewpoints back into the 60s by sunrise Saturday morning however, dewpoints in the northern and central Gulf are already lower than what the models have initialized so it may take a tad longer to realize these lower to mid 60s dewpoints. That said, the main time frame for the cold front and storms isn't till mainly Saturday evening. Aloft with all of the PAC energy coming in and still on the backside of the developing trough over the western CONUS it should dig significantly Friday and Saturday becoming quite amplified and sharp. The trough will be positively tilted with the axis likely stretching from around the TX/NM border into the Great Lakes. By late afternoon/early evening most of the energy should finally have rounded the base of the trough likely causing it to stop digging and then begin to quickly shift east with the trough axis expected to be through the Lower MS Valley by Sunday afternoon. The main sfc low associated with this system will; be well to the north with an associated cold front stretching back into TX. Because the sfc low is so far away and the positive tilt along with additional mid lvl jet streak rounding the base of the trough we will likely see some wave or even a secondary sfc low developing along the front as it moves through the ARKLATEX and into the ARKLAMISS. The developing sfc wave and mid lvl support should lead to a response in the LL wind field but the likely LL jet is still progged to be off to our north. As previous forecaster mentioned and in last nights AFD we will be dependent on the cold front both at the sfc and around h85 to provide the forcing for convection. There will be broad lift increasing through the evening as hghts fall around 4dm from 00z till the cold front pushes through. The problem is that most of the mid and upper lvl support still looks like it lags the cold front and this could be a bigger negative if convection is robust enough to our west. If there is a decent line of storms to our west there is a good chance it will cold pool and race to the east. This would significantly lower our chance of seeing strong to severe storms but if convection remains more confined to the cold front there there is a chance of a few potent storms Saturday night.

After our cold front moves through overnight much cooler and drier air will surge into the area. Winds will quickly shift to the northwest and the combined CAA and rising pressure at the sfc should make for a breezy day, especially across the southshore. Rain should quickly during the early morning hours but we may not completely clear out of the rain until around sunrise. There is a small chance we could need a wind adv along portions of the southshore for Sunday. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 446 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Next week will begin cold and dry but by Tuesday the medium range models are already starting to diverge with some features. With the uncertainty and some consistency and continuity issues in the medium range models confidence is low passed Tuesday next week however even with that it doesn't appear to be any major impact through mid-week; even with the differences most of the guidance suggest we will remain on the dry side. No deviations from the latest NBM in the extended portion of the forecast.

Monday and Tuesday will be on the cool side and we could see a few locations flirt with freezing again those two mornings. conditions will remain dry but as we head into Tuesday night there are some indications that a disturbance could try to impact the area overnight and into Wednesday. This disturbance will come out of the Pacific but will it come out of the west across the thickest portion of Mexico or does it come more out of the south moving into the western Gulf before it start to shift to the northeast. There is a lot of uncertainty with this feature and it will be on the weak side. In addition there will be very limited recovery ahead of it so we will likely remain mostly dry. /CAB/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions with SCT-BKN high clouds and light winds through the TAF period.



MARINE
Issued at 446 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

High pressure continues to build but will push east today allowing onshore flow to return this afternoon. The onshore flow picks up Friday and more so Saturday ahead of the next cold front expected to move through the area late Saturday/early Sunday, with a quick NW flow transitioning behind the passing front. Winds will reach Small Craft Advisory criteria behind the front for all waters, with waves reaching 5 to 7ft for outer 20-60nm zones. High pressure slowly builds in into mid-week with offshore winds subsiding and impacts reducing. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 61 45 69 58 / 0 0 10 20 BTR 65 49 73 61 / 0 0 10 10 ASD 63 47 72 59 / 0 0 10 10 MSY 64 53 72 62 / 0 0 10 10 GPT 62 50 70 60 / 0 0 10 10 PQL 64 46 73 59 / 0 0 10 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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