Wednesday, November20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eden Isle, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:01PM Wednesday November 20, 2019 8:10 AM CST (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:53AMMoonset 2:23PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 316 Am Cst Wed Nov 20 2019
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 316 Am Cst Wed Nov 20 2019
Synopsis..High pressure will remain over the north gulf through the work week however, the center of the high will slide east over the gulf. The next cold front to move through the area will be early this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eden Isle CDP, LA
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location: 30.22, -89.82     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus64.klix.afd.lix.txt <- there really should be an address herer AEFXUS64 KLIX 200922 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 322 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

DISCUSSION Highs ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s for the most part yesterday however MSY touched 78. As for lows this morning the large diurnal fluctuations we have been seeing are continuing with much of the area in the mid to upper 40s already while a few sites are in the lower 40s at 8z. Fog started to slowly develop in the same areas as last night however, by 8z this looked like it came to a halt. Will continue to hold onto the Dense Fog advisory to account for patchy areas of dense fog but at this time unless things begin to go downhill not anticipating expanding it at this time.

As for the forecast the next two days it should be quiet and dry with the region continuing to moderate. Once again highs yesterday way overachieved compared to MOS and the NBM. Obviously the guidance is struggling with something right now as it has had a substantial low bias with respect to highs. Guidance has been a little too warm with lows the last few days as well and is not handling the rather large diurnal temp changes we have been seeing. With no pattern or airmass change as the ridging across the area will remain in place this will likely continue for at least the next 2 days and given how the models have now slowed up about 12 hours with the next system Friday could be well above guidance as well. H925 temps of 14-16 C will continue to suggest highs in the lower to mid 70s and with the rather dry airmass in place we can probably add another degree or two and upper 70s will be possible in a few locations. As for lows the ECS seems to be having a better handle on the overnight lows so will stick closer to that for Thursday morning.

Friday and Saturday, we have seen some changes in the models. The last few days models did speed up with the deep closed low off the southwest Pac coast however this run all of the operational runs and ensemble means have slowed the progress of this system now; some by as much as 18 hrs. This would lead to a warmer and drier forecast for Friday and even into Friday evening with the greatest chance for rain overnight Friday and through Saturday morning. Do favor a slower soln given the current pattern and looking at how things may evolve it wouldn't be a surprise if this system slowed up a little more. The concern is that we may see a Rex blocking pattern set up. There is a S W that could act as a kicker coming into the Pac northwest Thursday night but if the low is only in the Desert Southwest and the ridge to the north of it is stout that wave may not be strong enough to break down the ridge or fast enough to ride over and break down the east side of it. Will have to watch this to see if PoPs need further adjustments up for Saturday.

As for impacts overall nothing is really screaming severe weather however models are indicating a little more instability to work with so have increased the thunderstorm potential in the forecast. There will be sufficient lift and forcing however shear looks even weaker than before and the front is not looking nearly as strong, even LL convergence is not that impressive. Can not rule out a few strong to possibly severe storms but not overly impressed with this potential at this time.

After the cold front and trough axis moves through look for a return of cool and dry weather. When this may occur is a little in question but currently we are indicating conditions beginning to dry out Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Monday should be fairly quiet and then things may get a little interesting again as we move into Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is at the end of the current forecast but there are indications still that a potent system could impact portions of the central CONUS including the Lower MS Valley.

Latest GFS ensemble is showing a very favorable setup for a Lower MS Valley severe weather event. The ECMWF ensemble is not as impressive but still shows a potent system that could move across the Plains and the MS Valley region Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Will need to keep a close eye on this system. CAB

MARINE Winds are all over the place right now with offshore flow east of the MS river and light and variable south of the SELA coast and onshore flow over the northwestern Gulf. Well this suggest the high is just to our south and as it moves east we should begin to see light onshore flow return over mush of the area today.

Onshore winds will remain over the area until the next cold front moves into the area which looks like Saturday. After the front moves through moderate offshore flow will develop and SCS or SCY headlines may be needed. High pressure will quickly shift east Monday and onshore flow looks to set right back up late Monday. CAB

AVIATION Seeing some IFR conditions at KHUM this morning and had a brief period of it at KASD. Still several hours to go before sunrise. With clear skies, light winds and little to no temperature dew point spread, still prime conditions for fog development. Considering the shallowness of the surface inversion, would expect any fog to mix out between 14-15z, if not sooner.

Beyond that, expectVFR conditions. Guidance has really backed off the fog threat for Thursday morning, and may not include in 12z TAF package. 35

DECISION SUPPORT DSS code: Blue.

Deployed: None.

Activation: None.

Activities: Forecast support for City of New Orleans. Fog Advisory Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action.

Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain.

Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.

Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS POPS MCB 75 50 76 59 0 0 0 10 BTR 79 53 79 62 0 0 0 10 ASD 74 48 76 58 0 0 0 0 MSY 75 57 76 63 0 0 0 0 GPT 71 51 73 60 0 0 0 0 PQL 75 46 76 59 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES LA... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ046-049- 056>061-063-065>069.

GM... None.

MS... None.

GM... None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 20 mi53 min Calm G 1 53°F 59°F1020.7 hPa
CARL1 26 mi53 min 52°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi59 min NE 1 G 1.9 58°F 59°F1021.5 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 27 mi59 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 56°F1021.8 hPa
FREL1 33 mi53 min N 1.9 G 1.9 56°F 1020.5 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 52°F 56°F1021.6 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA9 mi18 minN 46.00 miFog/Mist48°F45°F89%1022.3 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA17 mi18 minENE 45.00 miFair with Haze57°F52°F83%1021.6 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS22 mi81 minN 07.00 miFair41°F41°F100%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW34W6--45SW5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4
1 day agoNW3N4NW5N6W4SW9SW6SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm33N4W43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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