Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eden Isle, LA
May 17, 2024 5:01 PM CDT (22:01 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 2:41 PM Moonset 2:50 AM |
GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 343 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning - .
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southwest late this evening and early morning, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots late. Waves around 2 feet early, then 1 foot or less, then, then around 2 feet after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening. Showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Saturday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - Northwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 343 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a stationary front will remain over the region through this evening before eventually moving southeastward as a cold front on late tonight and Saturday. Thundertorms along this boundary, especially overnight and Saturday morning will bring the threat of locally strong winds, large hail, and higher seas to the waters. Breezy southwesterly winds south of the front will subside and shift out of the northwest in wake of the cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds in Sunday and remains over the waters through early next week.
a stationary front will remain over the region through this evening before eventually moving southeastward as a cold front on late tonight and Saturday. Thundertorms along this boundary, especially overnight and Saturday morning will bring the threat of locally strong winds, large hail, and higher seas to the waters. Breezy southwesterly winds south of the front will subside and shift out of the northwest in wake of the cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds in Sunday and remains over the waters through early next week.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 172141 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 441 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 428 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Convection has struggled to develop so far today (and we aren't complaining). A special 18Z RAOB sounding from KLIX shows a subsidence inversion near 850 mb in wake of last night's MCS that has helped to cap convection thus far. We are closely monitoring for convection to initiate along the quasi-stationary frontal boundary that is located just south of a line from Lafayette to Baton Rouge to Hattiesburg. This boundary has become increasingly better-defined as differential heating has magnified the temperature gradient (upper 60s/lower 70s on the cool side of the boundary and mid 80s in the warm sector). Low-level convergence has also strengthened near the front and this will provide a source of lift, but appears to be too shallow for convective updrafts to reach the LFC. Recent satellite trends show the CU field is building just south of the warm front along the Southshore, Coastal MS, and parts of coastal southeastern LA. This is the area where storms are most likely to initiate through mid afternoon. Expect coverage of storms to be widely scattered given the absence of deeper forcing. However, any storms that to break the cap has the potential to quickly become severe with an EML overhead and strong instability rooted in the boundary layer. These storms will be capable of producing locally damaging winds (favorable wet microburst environment with high instability and mid-level dry air) and large hail (steep mid- level lapse rates).
The severe weather and flash flood risk quickly ramps up overnight.
This is when strong forcing for ascent overspreads the area as a upper shortwave trough approaches from the Southern Plains and the region becomes located in the right entrance region of an upper- level jet streak. The afternoon cap erodes, allowing robust convection to initiate and grow upscale along the aforementioned frontal boundary. The severe and heavy rainfall threat has shifted slightly farther south given the position of the stationary front and anticipated southeastward movement of it tonight. This takes the northwestern portion of the CWA out of the primary severe wx/heavy rainfall threat area. CAMs are in good agreement showing storms quickly growing upscale and intensifying around 1 or 2 AM as the boundary progresses south of I-12. This would place the Southshore and coastal MS/SE LA under the greatest risk for heavy rainfall and severe weather during the 2-8 AM period.
Similar to last night, the greatest severe weather threat will be damaging winds. It should be noted that the HRRR runs today has consistently been showing intense winds near 80 kt with the convection near the SE LA coast.
There is some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rain falls, but localized amounts of 3-4" will be possible. This will be enough to produce another round of flash flooding, especially in areas that are already saturated from the previous rounds of heavy rainfall last night and back on Monday. There was enough confidence to drop the Flood Watch for areas north and west of Baton Rouge. Meanwhile the Flood Watch was expanded a tier of zones southward to include Houma and Thibodaux but not quite all the way down to the LA coast. The watch was also extended through midday Saturday as it the storms will be slow to move offshore.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 428 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Dry northwesterly flow aloft will be the main driver of the weather to start the long term period. An H5 shortwave ridge axis to our west will help transition the region into a much drier pattern overall. This pattern sets in through at least midweek as upper level heights and thicknesses increase over the region. This will help most if not all of the CWFA eventually warm into the 90s sometimes early to midweek during peak heating. At the surface, high pressure will begin to move east across the southern Appalachians allowing for a moisture rich onshore flow to begin across the region...so overnight lows too will start a modest warming trend as low level moisture begins to quickly spill northward from the Gulf by Tuesday.
Warm and dry conditions should continue for Wednesday and Thursday as a 594dam ridge continues to reside over northeast Mexico or Deep South Texas. The ridge will extend northeast along the US Gulf Coast and again this favors a hot pattern across the region. Up stream a surface front will try to move southward on Thursday. Globals don't seem to agree with the progression of the front. GFS is a bit more bullish with pushing the frontal boundary through the region despite questionable upper levels (parent trough continues downstream pretty quickly). For this solution to be applicable, would expect strong convective cold pool forcing to give the front more motivation, which given the QPF is more aggressive on the GFS is plausible. ECM, however, keeps most of the QPF signal well north of our region across the Mid South. This solution doesn't have the front move through the region...which is also a drier and warmer solution.
Regardless, this is still a week out so we will hurry up and wait and see what eventually evolves through early to midweek next week.
For now, lower tier POPs for the northern tier seems reasonable.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
A stationary boundary was draped across the region this afternoon. Low clouds and fog has been socked in north of the boundary at KBTR and KMCB. Expected IFR conditions to continue through most of the afternoon although eventual improvement to MVFR should occur late in the day (between 21Z and 00Z). South of the boundary, CIGs are higher but a CU field has developed and kept the other TAF sites in MVFR CIGs . Expect bases to gradually increase through the rest of the afternoon and eventually VFR CIGs will become increasingly common south of the front. Coverage of showers and storms will be too isolated to mention in 18Z TAFs before about 02Z this evening. Showers and storms will become better organized late this evening and especially overnight as a disturbance approaches. This activity will be focused along the front which will progress slowly southward through the area.
Confidence in heavy rain and an extended period of IFR/LIFR conditions increases farther south. This is reflected in the 18Z TAFs with the greatest restrictions and longest period of TSRA mentioned for HUM, MSY, NEW, and GPT.
MARINE
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
The strongest winds thus far today has been present across the far southeastern coastal waters, but even here observations marginally support a SCA with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Winds have actually become light over the lakes where the pressure gradient is light near a stationary boundary.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the coast late this afternoon and early evening. Although coverage will be limited, any of these storms have the potential to produce locally strong winds in excess of 34 kt, large hail, heavy downpours, lightning, and higher seas. The risk of hazardous conditions on the waters will increase overnight and continue through Saturday morning as storms organize along the front and move southward. Some of our model guidance is showing the potential for intense convective wind gusts in excess of 50 kt, perhaps locally to hurricane strength.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 84 65 88 / 60 30 0 10 BTR 70 87 70 93 / 70 30 0 0 ASD 69 84 69 92 / 70 70 0 10 MSY 71 84 73 90 / 80 70 0 10 GPT 69 81 69 89 / 80 80 10 10 PQL 69 82 67 91 / 70 80 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Saturday for LAZ068.
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ036-037-039-046>048- 056>060-064-065-071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 441 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 428 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Convection has struggled to develop so far today (and we aren't complaining). A special 18Z RAOB sounding from KLIX shows a subsidence inversion near 850 mb in wake of last night's MCS that has helped to cap convection thus far. We are closely monitoring for convection to initiate along the quasi-stationary frontal boundary that is located just south of a line from Lafayette to Baton Rouge to Hattiesburg. This boundary has become increasingly better-defined as differential heating has magnified the temperature gradient (upper 60s/lower 70s on the cool side of the boundary and mid 80s in the warm sector). Low-level convergence has also strengthened near the front and this will provide a source of lift, but appears to be too shallow for convective updrafts to reach the LFC. Recent satellite trends show the CU field is building just south of the warm front along the Southshore, Coastal MS, and parts of coastal southeastern LA. This is the area where storms are most likely to initiate through mid afternoon. Expect coverage of storms to be widely scattered given the absence of deeper forcing. However, any storms that to break the cap has the potential to quickly become severe with an EML overhead and strong instability rooted in the boundary layer. These storms will be capable of producing locally damaging winds (favorable wet microburst environment with high instability and mid-level dry air) and large hail (steep mid- level lapse rates).
The severe weather and flash flood risk quickly ramps up overnight.
This is when strong forcing for ascent overspreads the area as a upper shortwave trough approaches from the Southern Plains and the region becomes located in the right entrance region of an upper- level jet streak. The afternoon cap erodes, allowing robust convection to initiate and grow upscale along the aforementioned frontal boundary. The severe and heavy rainfall threat has shifted slightly farther south given the position of the stationary front and anticipated southeastward movement of it tonight. This takes the northwestern portion of the CWA out of the primary severe wx/heavy rainfall threat area. CAMs are in good agreement showing storms quickly growing upscale and intensifying around 1 or 2 AM as the boundary progresses south of I-12. This would place the Southshore and coastal MS/SE LA under the greatest risk for heavy rainfall and severe weather during the 2-8 AM period.
Similar to last night, the greatest severe weather threat will be damaging winds. It should be noted that the HRRR runs today has consistently been showing intense winds near 80 kt with the convection near the SE LA coast.
There is some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rain falls, but localized amounts of 3-4" will be possible. This will be enough to produce another round of flash flooding, especially in areas that are already saturated from the previous rounds of heavy rainfall last night and back on Monday. There was enough confidence to drop the Flood Watch for areas north and west of Baton Rouge. Meanwhile the Flood Watch was expanded a tier of zones southward to include Houma and Thibodaux but not quite all the way down to the LA coast. The watch was also extended through midday Saturday as it the storms will be slow to move offshore.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 428 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Dry northwesterly flow aloft will be the main driver of the weather to start the long term period. An H5 shortwave ridge axis to our west will help transition the region into a much drier pattern overall. This pattern sets in through at least midweek as upper level heights and thicknesses increase over the region. This will help most if not all of the CWFA eventually warm into the 90s sometimes early to midweek during peak heating. At the surface, high pressure will begin to move east across the southern Appalachians allowing for a moisture rich onshore flow to begin across the region...so overnight lows too will start a modest warming trend as low level moisture begins to quickly spill northward from the Gulf by Tuesday.
Warm and dry conditions should continue for Wednesday and Thursday as a 594dam ridge continues to reside over northeast Mexico or Deep South Texas. The ridge will extend northeast along the US Gulf Coast and again this favors a hot pattern across the region. Up stream a surface front will try to move southward on Thursday. Globals don't seem to agree with the progression of the front. GFS is a bit more bullish with pushing the frontal boundary through the region despite questionable upper levels (parent trough continues downstream pretty quickly). For this solution to be applicable, would expect strong convective cold pool forcing to give the front more motivation, which given the QPF is more aggressive on the GFS is plausible. ECM, however, keeps most of the QPF signal well north of our region across the Mid South. This solution doesn't have the front move through the region...which is also a drier and warmer solution.
Regardless, this is still a week out so we will hurry up and wait and see what eventually evolves through early to midweek next week.
For now, lower tier POPs for the northern tier seems reasonable.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
A stationary boundary was draped across the region this afternoon. Low clouds and fog has been socked in north of the boundary at KBTR and KMCB. Expected IFR conditions to continue through most of the afternoon although eventual improvement to MVFR should occur late in the day (between 21Z and 00Z). South of the boundary, CIGs are higher but a CU field has developed and kept the other TAF sites in MVFR CIGs . Expect bases to gradually increase through the rest of the afternoon and eventually VFR CIGs will become increasingly common south of the front. Coverage of showers and storms will be too isolated to mention in 18Z TAFs before about 02Z this evening. Showers and storms will become better organized late this evening and especially overnight as a disturbance approaches. This activity will be focused along the front which will progress slowly southward through the area.
Confidence in heavy rain and an extended period of IFR/LIFR conditions increases farther south. This is reflected in the 18Z TAFs with the greatest restrictions and longest period of TSRA mentioned for HUM, MSY, NEW, and GPT.
MARINE
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
The strongest winds thus far today has been present across the far southeastern coastal waters, but even here observations marginally support a SCA with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Winds have actually become light over the lakes where the pressure gradient is light near a stationary boundary.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the coast late this afternoon and early evening. Although coverage will be limited, any of these storms have the potential to produce locally strong winds in excess of 34 kt, large hail, heavy downpours, lightning, and higher seas. The risk of hazardous conditions on the waters will increase overnight and continue through Saturday morning as storms organize along the front and move southward. Some of our model guidance is showing the potential for intense convective wind gusts in excess of 50 kt, perhaps locally to hurricane strength.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 84 65 88 / 60 30 0 10 BTR 70 87 70 93 / 70 30 0 0 ASD 69 84 69 92 / 70 70 0 10 MSY 71 84 73 90 / 80 70 0 10 GPT 69 81 69 89 / 80 80 10 10 PQL 69 82 67 91 / 70 80 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Saturday for LAZ068.
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ036-037-039-046>048- 056>060-064-065-071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA | 20 mi | 43 min | SSW 4.1G | 86°F | 81°F | 29.74 | ||
| CARL1 | 26 mi | 43 min | 75°F | |||||
| SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA | 26 mi | 43 min | S 9.9G | 83°F | 73°F | 29.76 | ||
| WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS | 27 mi | 43 min | SSW 8G | 89°F | 79°F | 29.72 | ||
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 44 mi | 43 min | 84°F | 80°F | 29.74 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KASD SLIDELL,LA | 9 sm | 68 min | SW 05 | 7 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 86°F | 77°F | 75% | 29.74 | |
| KNEW LAKEFRONT,LA | 17 sm | 56 min | S 07 | 8 sm | Overcast | 88°F | 79°F | 75% | 29.74 | |
| KMJD PICAYUNE MUNI,MS | 21 sm | 26 min | S 07 | 5 sm | A Few Clouds | Mist | 84°F | 81°F | 89% | 29.72 |
| KHSA STENNIS INTL,MS | 22 sm | 71 min | SSW 06 | 5 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Haze | 82°F | 77°F | 84% | 29.74 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana, Tide feet
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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