Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lacombe, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:00PM Monday December 9, 2019 10:31 AM CST (16:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 949 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of light rain through the night. Patchy fog in the late evening.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of light rain early in the morning. Light rain likely late in the morning, then light rain in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Light rain in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day.
Friday night..North winds near 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 949 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis..A cold front will move through the coastal waters Tuesday night. High pressure will then build into the area while a surface low develops over the central gulf Friday. This low could affect the coastal waters by the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacombe, LA
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location: 30.25, -90.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 091253 AAA AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 653 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

UPDATE.

Have cancelled Fog Advisories, both land and marine based, as webcams are not showing any significant fog. Can't rule out a few small patches of ground fog, but no indications of sea fog, as higher dew point air remains further south. Products already issued.

SOUNDING DISCUSSION.

Surface inversion is very shallow, as morning sounding shows 20 knot winds at 400 feet. Airmass dries out rapidly above 3,000 feet, so we should see a fair amount of sunshine. Current high temperature forecast appears to be attainable.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 358 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/

SYNOPSIS .

High pressure currently off the Atlantic Coast extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Surface low currently over Kansas. Southerly flow has onset across the area, but is still rather weak, and isn't bringing particularly moist air into the area yet. In fact current dew points noted in marine observations remains below water temp (upper 50s dew points vs low-mid 60s water temps). This is making for a difficult nowcast regarding advective sea fog. Aviation observations at Gulfport and Keesler AFB support the current Dense Fog Advisory, but webcams are showing little, if any, dense fog. So, what is out there is more likely radiative and not advective.

SHORT TERM .

If fog development doesn't increase closer to sunrise, will likely go ahead and cancel advisory prior to 7 am CST.

Onshore flow becomes somewhat better established today with mid 60 dew points across most of the area by late afternoon. This could lead to a more substantial advective fog situation tonight. Northern stream shortwave pushes cold front closer to area as Kansas low moves into the Great Lakes, but other than warm advection, no real sources of forcing today. This would allow for some development of isolated or scattered showers this afternoon, but no widespread precipitation. Front enters the area late tonight and takes pretty much the entire day Tuesday to clear the coast. At this time, it looks like most precipitation will actually be post- frontal, which will limit thunderstorm development. Three hourly thunder probabilities don't get much past 10 percent, so will be playing down any thunder mention for now. Slow moving front means precipitation likely to linger into at least early Wednesday before pushing offshore.

Assuming we don't get into an advective fog situation today, anticipate high temperatures should be at or above the upper end of the guidance envelope for much of the area . 75-80. This would be a few degrees short of records at Baton Rouge and New Orleans. The exception to this would be along the Mississippi Coast, where the water temperatures will temper highs somewhat. Guidance is pretty close on temperatures tonight. High temperatures on Tuesday will be driven by the frontal location around sunrise. Calendar day highs likely to be pre-sunrise across northwest quarter or so of the area. Will accept blends for Tuesday night/Wednesday. 35

LONG TERM .

Beyond Wednesday, guidance begins to struggle with timing, strength and phasing of northern and southern stream shortwaves. At this time, ECMWF beginning to look like an outlier solution closing off an upper low over the Bay of Campeche over the weekend. No support for it from CMC or the Euro ensemble. For now, will continue use of blends, but may need to start trending toward GFS solution in later packages. If we get precipitation in the extended, probably on Friday, but currently looks like most precipitation likely to be offshore. 35

AVIATION .

Low level ceilings will range from VV001 to OVC005. When these ceilings break, the next level will remain at OVC020-040 through the day. Tonight looks to be a repeat of these LIFR to IFR conditions. Vis will follow these same lines as it will dip to 1/2SM or less this morning and again tonight for most if not all terminals.

MARINE .

A few locations showing fog this morning and a marine dense fog advisory will remain for these areas through 10am today. the advisory may be issued again later today unless the fog refuses to lift which will cause the advisory to simply be extended in time and possibly area as well. Winds will also remain southerly around 15kt through tonight. Another cold front will approach and move through the coastal waters Tuesday night. Fog conditions will be replaced with widespread rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong northerly winds will also move in behind a cold front. These conditions will be pressed south into the central gulf Wednesday night, but will rapidly move back into the coastal waters by the end of this week.

DECISION SUPPORT .

DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast support to City of New Orleans and Miss gulf coast Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 75 62 68 40 / 40 80 100 90 BTR 78 63 69 41 / 30 70 90 90 ASD 77 64 75 41 / 20 40 90 80 MSY 77 66 76 47 / 20 30 90 80 GPT 72 64 72 43 / 10 20 80 80 PQL 76 64 77 42 / 10 20 80 80

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 16 mi50 min S 6 G 8.9 71°F 62°F1015 hPa
CARL1 22 mi44 min 51°F
FREL1 23 mi44 min S 9.9 G 15 72°F 1014.2 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 33 mi50 min S 11 G 17 69°F 64°F1016.3 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 38 mi50 min S 8 G 11 72°F 62°F1015.8 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 38 mi50 min S 8 G 12 65°F 61°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi39 minS 910.00 miOvercast70°F63°F79%1015.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA15 mi39 minS 1310.00 miOvercast71°F64°F79%1015.2 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA22 mi39 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F66°F82%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4SE53S6SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S8S9S9S9
1 day agoNE6N6N8N6N9N7N5NE5N6N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN33
2 days agoS8S12
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CalmCalmS3CalmN5N8NE7N6N8N7N7N11N10N9N7N5NE5NE7NE8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM CST     0.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:06 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:06 PM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:27 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.80.80.70.60.40.30.20.10-0-0.1-0-00.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:04 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM CST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:25 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM CST     0.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.50.40.30.20.1-0-0-0.1-000.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.90.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.