Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lacombe, LA
May 10, 2024 10:06 PM CDT (03:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 6:57 AM Moonset 9:57 PM |
GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 258 Pm Cdt Fri May 10 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm cdt this evening through Saturday morning - .
Tonight - North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Saturday night - East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers.
Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.
Tuesday - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 258 Pm Cdt Fri May 10 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
as of 4pm, the cold front will be completely into the gulf. Behind the front winds will shift to the north for Friday night. By Saturday, high pressure will be firmly over the waters with lighter and more variable winds expected. Another area of low pressure will begin to approach the area on Sunday and winds will turn easterly and then southerly and rise again ahead of this low through Tuesday.
as of 4pm, the cold front will be completely into the gulf. Behind the front winds will shift to the north for Friday night. By Saturday, high pressure will be firmly over the waters with lighter and more variable winds expected. Another area of low pressure will begin to approach the area on Sunday and winds will turn easterly and then southerly and rise again ahead of this low through Tuesday.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 101952 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 252 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Passage of the frontal boundary mostly into the northern Gulf has occurred, although as of 2pm it is still draped across far south coastal LA visible on radar as a few rain cells. Current surface conditions are mostly sunny, north winds, temps in the low 80s in southwest MS counties and upper 80s in the LA parishes and coastal MS counties, and damp air with RH in the upper 40%s to upper 50%s.
As the period progresses, surface high pressure moves west to east over us and in the upper levels the trough that generated the prior frontal boundary moves east and we come under the influence of an approaching gentle ridge. Winds will remain northerly bringing slightly cooler/drier air (highs tomorrow a couple degrees under today). Skies will remain partly to mostly sunny through tomorrow evening when an approaching trough starts pulling moisture into the area.
LONG TERM
(Sunday to end of period)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Boundary layer flow turns onshore again Sunday, with an attendant return of moisture. Dew points will slowly increase from the lower 60s Sunday morning to around 70 south of Lake Pontchartrain by Monday morning. While there is mid level ridging over the western Gulf, the southern stream will be rather active with multiple shortwaves moving over the upper ridge. As each surface low moves through the Central Plains States into the Middle Mississippi River Valley, an associated area of showers and thunderstorms will move through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. While there will be some potential for rain on Sunday, the first impactful rain event will likely take place Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. At least one more round beyond that, and possibly two, for the end of next week.
Precipitable water values will start out around 1.4 inches on Sunday, and increase into the 1.8 range by late Monday afternoon, which is above the 90th percentile of climatology for mid-May.
Additional rounds of rain and storms around Thursday and Friday will have similar or higher moisture levels in place to continue the potential for heavy rainfall. With multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible, if not likely, there will be an increasing threat of hydrologic issues by the end of the week. Widespread rain amounts in excess of 4 inches, and possibly more, are not out of the question during the work week next week. It is too early to focus on specific amounts and locations, but need to acknowledge that there is a threat for the area. There may also be some potential for severe storms with one or more of these systems, dependent on moisture and wind profiles.
NBM PoPs will be used as a starting point for precipitation timing, with refinements likely in later forecast packages. The temperature forecast, especially highs, will be dependent on the timing of the precipitation events. The warmest days are likely to be Tuesday/Wednesday, when the potential for considerable sunshine is the greatest. Highs those days could be around 90, with the remaining days probably in the lower or middle 80s at best. RW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
With the front passing down into the Gulf, there are a few lingering low clouds/ceilings pushing KMSY to MVFR status. Other locations are VFR and KMSY should be clearing in the next hours also. VFR conditions expected to continue through the period.
MARINE
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Behind the frontal passage north winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels approaching 20kt, first in the inshore lakes and MS sound and then into the outer waters through early tomorrow morning. Winds will then ease through the day Saturday and remain that way through Sunday morning. Winds will then begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt as the old boundary starts to move north. Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the northern gulf. There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters through the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 83 59 81 61 / 10 0 10 0 BTR 90 65 87 67 / 20 10 0 10 ASD 90 64 87 65 / 30 0 0 0 MSY 88 71 85 70 / 30 0 0 10 GPT 88 64 85 66 / 40 0 0 0 PQL 89 62 87 63 / 50 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ550- 552-555-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ552- 555-570-572-575-577.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 252 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Passage of the frontal boundary mostly into the northern Gulf has occurred, although as of 2pm it is still draped across far south coastal LA visible on radar as a few rain cells. Current surface conditions are mostly sunny, north winds, temps in the low 80s in southwest MS counties and upper 80s in the LA parishes and coastal MS counties, and damp air with RH in the upper 40%s to upper 50%s.
As the period progresses, surface high pressure moves west to east over us and in the upper levels the trough that generated the prior frontal boundary moves east and we come under the influence of an approaching gentle ridge. Winds will remain northerly bringing slightly cooler/drier air (highs tomorrow a couple degrees under today). Skies will remain partly to mostly sunny through tomorrow evening when an approaching trough starts pulling moisture into the area.
LONG TERM
(Sunday to end of period)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Boundary layer flow turns onshore again Sunday, with an attendant return of moisture. Dew points will slowly increase from the lower 60s Sunday morning to around 70 south of Lake Pontchartrain by Monday morning. While there is mid level ridging over the western Gulf, the southern stream will be rather active with multiple shortwaves moving over the upper ridge. As each surface low moves through the Central Plains States into the Middle Mississippi River Valley, an associated area of showers and thunderstorms will move through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. While there will be some potential for rain on Sunday, the first impactful rain event will likely take place Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. At least one more round beyond that, and possibly two, for the end of next week.
Precipitable water values will start out around 1.4 inches on Sunday, and increase into the 1.8 range by late Monday afternoon, which is above the 90th percentile of climatology for mid-May.
Additional rounds of rain and storms around Thursday and Friday will have similar or higher moisture levels in place to continue the potential for heavy rainfall. With multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible, if not likely, there will be an increasing threat of hydrologic issues by the end of the week. Widespread rain amounts in excess of 4 inches, and possibly more, are not out of the question during the work week next week. It is too early to focus on specific amounts and locations, but need to acknowledge that there is a threat for the area. There may also be some potential for severe storms with one or more of these systems, dependent on moisture and wind profiles.
NBM PoPs will be used as a starting point for precipitation timing, with refinements likely in later forecast packages. The temperature forecast, especially highs, will be dependent on the timing of the precipitation events. The warmest days are likely to be Tuesday/Wednesday, when the potential for considerable sunshine is the greatest. Highs those days could be around 90, with the remaining days probably in the lower or middle 80s at best. RW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
With the front passing down into the Gulf, there are a few lingering low clouds/ceilings pushing KMSY to MVFR status. Other locations are VFR and KMSY should be clearing in the next hours also. VFR conditions expected to continue through the period.
MARINE
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Behind the frontal passage north winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels approaching 20kt, first in the inshore lakes and MS sound and then into the outer waters through early tomorrow morning. Winds will then ease through the day Saturday and remain that way through Sunday morning. Winds will then begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt as the old boundary starts to move north. Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the northern gulf. There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters through the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 83 59 81 61 / 10 0 10 0 BTR 90 65 87 67 / 20 10 0 10 ASD 90 64 87 65 / 30 0 0 0 MSY 88 71 85 70 / 30 0 0 10 GPT 88 64 85 66 / 40 0 0 0 PQL 89 62 87 63 / 50 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ550- 552-555-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ552- 555-570-572-575-577.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA | 16 mi | 48 min | NE 17G | 84°F | 29.87 | |||
| CARL1 | 22 mi | 48 min | 73°F | |||||
| SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA | 33 mi | 48 min | N 15G | 77°F | 29.89 | |||
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 38 mi | 48 min | 86°F | 29.87 | ||||
| WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS | 38 mi | 48 min | N 12G | 84°F | 29.86 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KASD SLIDELL,LA | 14 sm | 13 min | NE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 64°F | 73% | 29.87 | |
| KNEW LAKEFRONT,LA | 15 sm | 13 min | NNE 17 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 66°F | 55% | 29.88 | |
| KMSY LOUIS ARMSTRONG NEW ORLEANS INTL,LA | 21 sm | 13 min | N 08G17 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 64°F | 55% | 29.89 |
Tide / Current for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana, Tide feet
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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