Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lynn Haven, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:14PM Monday January 25, 2021 5:26 PM CST (23:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:24PMMoonset 5:02AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 141 Pm Cst Mon Jan 25 2021
Tonight..South winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Thursday..North winds 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters choppy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 241 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis.. Winds and seas are forecast to remain just below cautionary levels over the next couple of days, with rain chances increasing tomorrow. Late on Wednesday a cold front will move through the northeast gulf bringing more showers and storms. Some storms may be strong to severe and will be capable of producing hazardous marine conditions in its vicinity. Higher-end advisory conditions are very likely from late Wednesday into Thursday due to cold advection behind a strengthening low pressure off the se coast. Conditions will gradually improve Thursday into Thursday night as winds and seas subside.the marine dense fog advisory for apalachee bay will be allowed to expire until 7pm est, but patchy fog is a possibility in those waters late tonight into tomorrow morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lynn Haven, FL
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location: 30.26, -85.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 252126 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 426 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday].

Warm and humid conditions under mostly cloudy skies prevail today thanks to southerly flow between high pressure over the west Atlantic and a frontal low to our northwest. Temperatures are forecast to be anomalously warm - highs in the mid/upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s. Patchy fog likely develops again late tonight into tomorrow morning before a cold front associated with the aforementioned low approaches from the west tomorrow.

Convection should have little trouble forming along/ahead of the boundary as there will be sufficient lift and low-level convergence within a very moist airmass. Unlike much of this winter season so far, instability won't be a limiting factor this time around, so there is a good chance for thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, the deep-layer wind shear is forecast to increase, which would be supportive of robust/organized convection. Therefore, severe weather is in play on Tues - SPC's Day 2 Outlook introduces a marginal risk (level 1/5) for much of the Tri-State Area. The primary threats are isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. The main factors that are keeping the severe threat isolated seem to be cool shelf waters, cloud cover, lack of a strong LLJ, and weakening upper-level support as the front's associated shortwave dampens while lifting poleward. It would not be surprising if storms overperform, though.

Rain chances begin to increase in the pre-dawn hours across the western half of the CWA and overspread the region through the remainder of the period. It is worth noting that heavy rainfall is possible with some of this convection (see Hydro section for more info). The expected activity on Tues may be a precursor for an even more active short-term period as the front stalls across the area and awaits a secondary, trailing shortwave.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night].

The stalled frontal boundary should continue to provide a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Tues evening. Once the secondary shortwave marches from the Desert SW to the TN/MS Valley, the front will regain its forward progress, but also get a boost in upper-level support. Therefore, it is likely that we see a second round of severe weather on Wed where the threat may be more scattered than isolated. All the necessary ingredients will remain in place to support the severe threat - high shear, seasonably high instability and moisture, and forcing for ascent. However, this shortwave is expected to be stronger and closer to our area than the previous one, so models are depicting a more robust and broader low- level wind field. This suggests greater potential for damaging winds. SPC currently only has us outlined for general thunderstorms in their Day 3 Outlook (Wed-Thurs), but it seems like a safe bet that we get an upgrade to a marginal or even slight risk (level 2/5) in subsequent outlooks. Stay tuned.

Rain chances are high areawide then shift east with the rejuvenated front in the afternoon, with improved weather before sunrise on Thurs. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low/mid 70s and mid 60s on Wed. Cool and dry air after frontal passage will drop overnight temperatures to the 40s (upper 30s in our northwestern- tier counties).

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday].

The period will begin under moderately strong CAA behind the storm system which will strengthen off the SE coast. Much cooler conditions on Thursday with highs maybe not reaching 50 over the far north/upper 50s immediate coast. Very chilly Friday morning with frost possible before as slow moderation begins for Friday and esply Saturday as high pressure shifts east.

Some timing differences with the next system to affect the region Sunday into Monday as would be expected. For now went with a compromise which focuses rain chances Sunday into Sunday Night. No thunder for now as instability looks negligible.

AVIATION. [Through 18Z Tuesday]

A mix of bkn/sct clouds with mostly VFR cigs are moving south to north this afternoon under breezy southerly winds between 10 and 15 kts. Increased clouds and lower cigs are expected tonight ahead of an approaching front from the west. Patchy fog/mist also appears likely tonight into tmrw morning, making for at least MVFR conds, with periods of IFR. Showers and storms are fcst late tonight at ECP/DHN then coverage expands to all terminals the remainder of the TAF. Some storms may be strong to severe.

MARINE.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain just below Cautionary levels over the next couple of days, with rain chances increasing tomorrow. Late on Wednesday a cold front will move through the northeast Gulf bringing more showers and storms. Some storms may be strong to severe and will be capable of producing hazardous marine conditions in its vicinity. Higher-end Advisory conditions are very likely from late Wednesday into Thursday due to cold advection behind a strengthening low pressure off the SE coast. Conditions will gradually improve Thursday into Thursday night as winds and seas subside.The Marine Dense Fog Advisory for Apalachee Bay will be allowed to expire until 7pm EST, but patchy fog is a possibility in those waters late tonight into tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER.

Other than low dispersions Tues afternoon across the Tri-state Area and fog potential late tonight into tomorrow morning, there are no red-flag concerns. Moisture will continue to increase under the influence of southerly winds from the Gulf as a front approaches from the west. Fairly widespread rain is expected the next couple days before cool, dry, and breezy conditions filter in from the northwest late this week.

HYDROLOGY.

A very moist airmass will continue to overspread the region through Wednesday with precipitable water(PW) in the 1.75-2 inch range. While individual storm motions will likely be quick, model guidance indicates that the axis of highest PW will overlay a stalled frontal zone across the area on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. As convection develops within this moist and unstable airmass, the potential exists for localized heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wed. afternoons. While most areas will not exceed two inches of rain with this system, localized heavier totals of 3-5 inches are possible, especially across portions of south GA/north FL.

The Flash Flood potential is relatively low given that FFG values are in the 3.5-4 inch range over a three hour period. However heavy rainfall rates persisting in urban areas, like albany, could yield some flooding.

A slightly greater threat will be the potential for river flooding in the coming days. While amounts up to two inches will likely result in affected basins reaching Action stage, the Whithlacoochee and Ochlocknee Basins are vulnerable to at least minor flooding in this event given ongoing wet conditions.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 65 78 66 75 44 / 30 70 50 80 10 Panama City 66 74 65 73 43 / 40 70 60 80 0 Dothan 66 77 64 72 39 / 40 80 80 80 0 Albany 66 78 65 72 40 / 40 70 80 80 10 Valdosta 65 78 67 75 44 / 20 70 50 80 20 Cross City 63 78 64 75 46 / 0 10 20 80 20 Apalachicola 65 73 66 72 45 / 30 60 40 80 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM . IG3 SHORT TERM . IG3 LONG TERM . Johnstone AVIATION . IG3 MARINE . IG3/Johnstone FIRE WEATHER . IG3/Johnstone HYDROLOGY . Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 8 mi57 min SE 13 G 17
PCBF1 13 mi57 min SE 15 G 16 63°F 61°F1013.7 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 51 mi57 min ESE 6 G 8 64°F 59°F1014.8 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 53 mi102 min SSE 6 68°F 1016 hPa64°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL10 mi34 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast68°F65°F90%1014.5 hPa
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL14 mi2.5 hrsSSE 1610.00 miOvercast71°F65°F82%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECP

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4SE6SE4SE6E3E4E3CalmE4SE5SE5SE6SE8SE7SE11SE12
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1 day agoN3NE5NE3NE4E3CalmN4NE3N3NE4NE3NE6NE5E5E4E7E6E6SE5SE7SE7SE8S9S5
2 days agoN7N6N7N7NE7N5N4N6N6N5N5N7N6N8N5N7NE7NE6N6NE5NE5N6NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:02 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:14 AM CST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:23 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:28 PM CST     1.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.811.21.31.41.41.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:02 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:09 AM CST     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:23 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:51 PM CST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.20.40.60.811.11.21.21.210.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.