Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Slidell, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:23PM Monday October 21, 2019 2:14 AM CDT (07:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:09PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 438 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 20 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers until late afternoon. Chance of Thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds near 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then showers and chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 438 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 20 2019
Synopsis..High pressure will remain over the coastal waters this evening before another cold front sweeps through on Monday. High pressure will settle in behind this front on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Slidell, LA
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location: 30.27, -89.79     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 210448
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1148 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019

Updated aviation discussion...

Evening update issued 943 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019
performed an update to the gridded forecast package late this
evening - initializing latest satellite observation trends. Still
looking like the majority of tonight will be dry, as southerly
low-level winds continue to pump moist gulf air across the area.

Not anticipating any fog issues this morning, however some patchy
areas of fog cannot be ruled out generally across the northshore
and east across southern mississippi.

Diving deep into the models, analyzed the latest 00z hrrr 18z nam
nest which continues to paint a complicated picture for tomorrow.

On water vapor imagery, there is a well-defined corridor of
enhanced moisture from central mexico, stretched northeast into
the NW gomex. Embedded in this tunnel of moisture are several
small areas of vorticity which have helped develop light showers
over the past few hours. Guidance is in very good agreement over
the idea that eventual convective initiation in the NW gomex as
better height falls increasing low-level jet approaches the area.

When convection like this develops, we typically get stronger
storm clusters that eventually become fueled by ongoing cold
pooling that races east across the northern gulf coast. While this
seems highly plausible, especially with such great consistency
with the cams - the main questions remain:
1) what will be the extent of shower coverage across SE la S ms
early in the morning in the anvil canopy side of any coastal
convection that tracks east?
2) how will the approaching line of storms from the NW react to
the coastal convection? Will there enough meso-scale subsidence to
counterbalance dynamic frontogenetic lift lowering the severe risk?
with both questions up in the air at the moment (until early
tomorrow morning).. It is evident that low confidence exists with
the extent of severe weather. Even if the cluster of storms along
the coast is faster (usually can be as cold-pool mesoscale
systems tend to advance faster than guidance picks up on).. This
means maybe the decay of the line will be later, which means the
severe weather risk will press east across our area. At this
time, this solution appears most likely. However, do note: this
type of event can either be a day full of multiple warnings, or
just a day of light to moderate rain showers. We will continue to
analyze guidance along with monitoring surface satellite obs and
update when necessary but the main message is to be weather-ready
in the case of active weather. Klg

Prev discussion issued 431 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019

Synopsis
Weak high pressure over the eastern gulf of mexico this afternoon.

Low pressure over south dakota had a cold front to west texas.

Onshore flow returning 70 degree dew point air across the area has
allowed temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 80s across
much of the area. There have been a few showers west and north of
baton rouge, but most of the area has been dry. There is an area
of thunderstorms near alexandria, that has at least some potential
to cross northwestern portions of the area later this evening.

Short term
Main forecast concerns in the short term portion of the forecast
are convection tomorrow, and winds behind the front on Tuesday.

Timing of front still appears to be western portions of the area
during the early afternoon, exiting the mississippi coast by late
evening. A squall line will develop ahead of the front well to the
west overnight, approaching the atchafalaya basin around midday.

Forecast problem is whether convection develops over the gulf of
mexico ahead of the front per a significant number of model
solutions, cutting off the best moisture. Those models that
develop gulf convection leave insufficient instability for severe
weather, while remaining ones leave about a 3 hour window for
convective development ahead of the front. Will continue with
categorical pops for tomorrow afternoon and evening, but severe
weather threat is a relatively low confidence forecast at this
time. Light, post-frontal showers should clear the land areas by
sunrise Tuesday, with dry weather expected Tuesday daytime through
Wednesday.

Cold air behind the front should bring an increase in winds
Tuesday morning. With 60f air moving over 85f lake pontchartrain
water, expect an increase in winds beyond what GFS mav guidance is
showing downwind of the lake. This will need to be monitored.

Blended temperatures look to work ok through the daytime hours
Tuesday, but may need to be lowered in later forecasts Tuesday
night. Blended temps could be a degree or two low on Wednesday.

Long term
After a dry day on Thursday, forecast confidence lowers rapidly.

Ecmwf develops a closed low to our west for the weekend, while the
gfs is much more progressive with another frontal passage.

Ensemble means favor the GFS solution somewhat, so blends have
trended toward that solution. Will carry likely to categorical
pops for Thursday night Friday. Will say, however, that later
forecasts may need to lower temperature forecasts for the weekend
by another 5-7 degrees if the GFS solution is more representative.

Aviation
Updated 0448z
Expect primarilyVFR conditions through 12z early this morning.

Only exception will be some spotty areas of fog, generally along
coastal SE la and southern mississippi. However, overall coverage
and density will be limited, as southerly winds continue to
increase along with increasing low-level moisture which will
prevent any surface inversion from forming across the area.

Main hazardous weather to focus on in the TAF period will be
increasing showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches
from the northwest Monday morning. It is possible that a pre-
frontal disturbance will allow for showers storms to arrive
earlier around early mid am which will last into the late evening
hours. Main threats will be gusty, downdraft winds and a few
isolated tornadoes. Lower cig's and vis during heaviest rainfall
will drop flight categories to ifr lifr at times, with MVFR
prevailing. Conditions dry out after 03-06z late Monday evening as
winds shift from the northwest and become gusty behind the
passing cold front. Klg

Marine
Open waters will have 10 to 15 knot winds overnight, with exercise
caution headlines likely to be needed for portions of the open
waters tomorrow ahead of the front. Exercise caution headlines or
small craft advisories will be necessary by sunrise Tuesday,
continuing into Wednesday. Another round of headlines likely with
the next front Friday night or Saturday.

Decision support
Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: NWS office support city of new orleans for
building collapse.

Activation: none.

Activities: forecast support to new orleans for building collapse.

Convective threats for Monday.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 69 78 53 72 10 100 40 0
btr 72 79 56 73 20 100 40 0
asd 70 82 58 76 10 100 70 10
msy 74 83 63 76 10 100 60 10
gpt 72 81 60 74 10 90 80 10
pql 70 83 59 76 10 90 100 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 24 mi62 min S 2.9 G 6 76°F 76°F1011.2 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 25 mi62 min S 6 G 8 74°F 74°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 28 mi62 min SE 7 G 8.9 74°F 75°F1012.4 hPa
CARL1 30 mi56 min 72°F
FREL1 35 mi56 min S 6 G 7 74°F 1010.7 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 47 mi62 min SE 5.1 G 7 74°F 76°F1011.9 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA6 mi21 minSSE 610.00 miFair74°F69°F85%1011.3 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA20 mi21 minS 910.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmS7S6S8S8SE8SE7SE5SE4SE4S3CalmCalmSE6S6
1 day agoN4N6N4N6N5N5N9N7N5NW74N6NW7NW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago4NE3NE5E4NE4N5NE8NE5NE5NE7NE6NE5N8N11N9N8N8NE7NE8NE5N7N5N6NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Pearlington, Pearl River, Mississippi
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.