Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Slidell, LA
May 16, 2024 3:21 PM CDT (20:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:48 PM Moonset 2:23 AM |
GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 319 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.
Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the evening. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday - Northwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night - West winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 319 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a warm front will lift northeastward across the waters through tonight. Southeasterly winds will increase to small craft advisory levels in wake of the frontal passage. Multiple rounds of Thunderstorms will bring the potential for an extended period of hazardous conditions on the waters through Saturday morning.
a warm front will lift northeastward across the waters through tonight. Southeasterly winds will increase to small craft advisory levels in wake of the frontal passage. Multiple rounds of Thunderstorms will bring the potential for an extended period of hazardous conditions on the waters through Saturday morning.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 161901 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 201 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
The sfc part of the old frontal boundary is stalled near the coast this morning and drapes inland near Terrebonne Parish westward to Beuregard Parish. This can be seen with showers developing along this boundary while the 850mb part of this is stalled over the central gulf and this part of the front can be easily seen over the eastern portion of the gulf as storms fire along its boundary.
The 850mb part of this continues through the gulf and comes ashore near Corpus Christi TX. This will be the main line to watch later today as it gets brought back to the north and storms start to fire along it. Rainfall rates will intensify through the day along this boundary and should be most intense with a corridor of heaviest rainfall from near a line from Austin to DeRidder then up to McComb to near Hattiesburg over the next few days. Obviously, the heavy rain will not just lie along this line but either side of it as well. WPC has kept a portion of the area near BTR in a moderate risk which looks warranted. This is also where the current flood watch has been posted and this will remain for now but may be changed a bit for Fri depending on how things unfold.
This boundary will also compartmentalize where severe storms will form. North of this boundary should be all heavy rain but there is the potential for large hail to the north of this boundary. The sfc instability will be through the area this morning and sh/ts are already forming along this sfc instability line, while the elevated instability will start to move through by 3pm. The entire area should be unstable throughout the column before midnight tonight. This deep vertical instability should be evident by where the rain and storms begin to fire later today. Even though SPC has a marginal risk level for the area, it still warrants attention as conditions will be conducive for severe storms, just not to the degree that Fri is looking. The first wave moves out Fri morning and fast on its heals will be the next disturbance that should start developing near the Houston area Fri morning and quickly move ENE along this same boundary entering our area around 3pm Fri. The next system will be right behind this one.
This third one should develop somewhere between Houston and Corpus late Fri and move ENE at a very rapid pace entering the area around or just after midnight Fri night into Sat morning. This one looks like the same style of systems we have been having for the last several weeks, the wake low type scenario with a very fast moving squall line producing severe wind speeds. We will need to see exactly where and the time this complex forms to pin down any discrete placement and timing locally. These Fri systems look quite volatile and will have a lot of energy to use in the form of almost every severe wx variable with all modes of severe possible. Models have been ever so slightly nudging this whole mess northward, but we are still quite confident that most of the area will see strong chances of heavy rainfall and severe storms at some point between today and early Saturday.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Even though the boundary gets left in place across the area Saturday, the sfc low and upper troughing move east bringing the mid and upper support with it after the third disturbance exits the area. This will help alleviate the heavy rain and severe storm threat for most of the weekend. High pressure builds and moves east by the new week but ridges over the gulf coast through about mid week. A new cold front will move to around the Ark/La line before stalling with our area possibly staying rain free for the most of the week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
VFR this afternoon with mid level clouds from upstream convection overspread the area. CU field eventually building from SW to NE across the area later this afternoon and early evening as a warm front progress northward. A complex of showers and storms currently over C and NE TX will move in from the west this evening as it interacts with a northward moving warm front.
Attempted to narrow the timing window of storms based on the current observations and latest model guidance, but there is still some uncertainty with the onset timing. There is some indication that storms could arrive a couple of hours earlier than what's advertised in the 18Z TAFs (as early as 01Z for BTR/MCB, 03Z for MSY/HDC/NEW/ASD and 04Z for GPT/HUM). The latest TAFs also show CIGs and VSBYs lowering to MVFR shortly after the onset.
Also added a 2-3 hour TEMPO IFR group late this evening and overnight for all TAFs except HUM as confidence of storms making it this far is lower. In reality, conditions will deteriorate to IFR at the onset with brief/local restrictions near LIFR in heavy downpours.
Some of the model guidance in indicating the potential for a wake low to develop late in the day. Easterly winds would strengthen overnight for at least 2-3 hours as a result. Forecast wind speeds may be underdone.
A relative lull in the showers and storms are expected Friday morning and afternoon in wake of the overnight MCS. However, it may not be entirely convection free with a few showers and storms lingering near MCB and GPT during the morning. Additional storms are expected to develop during peak heating hours, especially during the latter half of the afternoon as it will likely take some time to recover from the earlier activity.
MARINE
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
A warm front was located over the coastal waters of LA. A slight wind shift from easterly to southeasterly is occurring with the frontal passage. Wind speeds will also increase from around 10 kt to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt. This boundary will continue to lift northeastward through the rest of the waters through the evening.
Storms have already developed just behind the surface boundary across our far southwestern zones early this afternoon. Locally strong wind gusts of 30-40 kt is possible with the strongest convection.
Additional showers and storms are expected to move in this evening and continue overnight. The highest coverage will be over the lakes and MS Sound as convection becomes focused along the warm front. Will likely need a SCA for tonight owing to the presence of a wake low behind the storms. There is a potential for a brief 1-3 hour period of gales depending on where the wake low tracks and how strong it is as it approaches our area.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 83 67 84 / 90 70 70 50 BTR 71 89 70 89 / 80 70 60 50 ASD 71 89 70 87 / 70 60 60 70 MSY 75 89 73 87 / 60 50 70 60 GPT 71 85 70 85 / 70 50 70 70 PQL 70 87 70 85 / 70 50 60 80
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-057-058-060-064-071-076>087-089.
GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 201 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
The sfc part of the old frontal boundary is stalled near the coast this morning and drapes inland near Terrebonne Parish westward to Beuregard Parish. This can be seen with showers developing along this boundary while the 850mb part of this is stalled over the central gulf and this part of the front can be easily seen over the eastern portion of the gulf as storms fire along its boundary.
The 850mb part of this continues through the gulf and comes ashore near Corpus Christi TX. This will be the main line to watch later today as it gets brought back to the north and storms start to fire along it. Rainfall rates will intensify through the day along this boundary and should be most intense with a corridor of heaviest rainfall from near a line from Austin to DeRidder then up to McComb to near Hattiesburg over the next few days. Obviously, the heavy rain will not just lie along this line but either side of it as well. WPC has kept a portion of the area near BTR in a moderate risk which looks warranted. This is also where the current flood watch has been posted and this will remain for now but may be changed a bit for Fri depending on how things unfold.
This boundary will also compartmentalize where severe storms will form. North of this boundary should be all heavy rain but there is the potential for large hail to the north of this boundary. The sfc instability will be through the area this morning and sh/ts are already forming along this sfc instability line, while the elevated instability will start to move through by 3pm. The entire area should be unstable throughout the column before midnight tonight. This deep vertical instability should be evident by where the rain and storms begin to fire later today. Even though SPC has a marginal risk level for the area, it still warrants attention as conditions will be conducive for severe storms, just not to the degree that Fri is looking. The first wave moves out Fri morning and fast on its heals will be the next disturbance that should start developing near the Houston area Fri morning and quickly move ENE along this same boundary entering our area around 3pm Fri. The next system will be right behind this one.
This third one should develop somewhere between Houston and Corpus late Fri and move ENE at a very rapid pace entering the area around or just after midnight Fri night into Sat morning. This one looks like the same style of systems we have been having for the last several weeks, the wake low type scenario with a very fast moving squall line producing severe wind speeds. We will need to see exactly where and the time this complex forms to pin down any discrete placement and timing locally. These Fri systems look quite volatile and will have a lot of energy to use in the form of almost every severe wx variable with all modes of severe possible. Models have been ever so slightly nudging this whole mess northward, but we are still quite confident that most of the area will see strong chances of heavy rainfall and severe storms at some point between today and early Saturday.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Even though the boundary gets left in place across the area Saturday, the sfc low and upper troughing move east bringing the mid and upper support with it after the third disturbance exits the area. This will help alleviate the heavy rain and severe storm threat for most of the weekend. High pressure builds and moves east by the new week but ridges over the gulf coast through about mid week. A new cold front will move to around the Ark/La line before stalling with our area possibly staying rain free for the most of the week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
VFR this afternoon with mid level clouds from upstream convection overspread the area. CU field eventually building from SW to NE across the area later this afternoon and early evening as a warm front progress northward. A complex of showers and storms currently over C and NE TX will move in from the west this evening as it interacts with a northward moving warm front.
Attempted to narrow the timing window of storms based on the current observations and latest model guidance, but there is still some uncertainty with the onset timing. There is some indication that storms could arrive a couple of hours earlier than what's advertised in the 18Z TAFs (as early as 01Z for BTR/MCB, 03Z for MSY/HDC/NEW/ASD and 04Z for GPT/HUM). The latest TAFs also show CIGs and VSBYs lowering to MVFR shortly after the onset.
Also added a 2-3 hour TEMPO IFR group late this evening and overnight for all TAFs except HUM as confidence of storms making it this far is lower. In reality, conditions will deteriorate to IFR at the onset with brief/local restrictions near LIFR in heavy downpours.
Some of the model guidance in indicating the potential for a wake low to develop late in the day. Easterly winds would strengthen overnight for at least 2-3 hours as a result. Forecast wind speeds may be underdone.
A relative lull in the showers and storms are expected Friday morning and afternoon in wake of the overnight MCS. However, it may not be entirely convection free with a few showers and storms lingering near MCB and GPT during the morning. Additional storms are expected to develop during peak heating hours, especially during the latter half of the afternoon as it will likely take some time to recover from the earlier activity.
MARINE
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
A warm front was located over the coastal waters of LA. A slight wind shift from easterly to southeasterly is occurring with the frontal passage. Wind speeds will also increase from around 10 kt to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt. This boundary will continue to lift northeastward through the rest of the waters through the evening.
Storms have already developed just behind the surface boundary across our far southwestern zones early this afternoon. Locally strong wind gusts of 30-40 kt is possible with the strongest convection.
Additional showers and storms are expected to move in this evening and continue overnight. The highest coverage will be over the lakes and MS Sound as convection becomes focused along the warm front. Will likely need a SCA for tonight owing to the presence of a wake low behind the storms. There is a potential for a brief 1-3 hour period of gales depending on where the wake low tracks and how strong it is as it approaches our area.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 83 67 84 / 90 70 70 50 BTR 71 89 70 89 / 80 70 60 50 ASD 71 89 70 87 / 70 60 60 70 MSY 75 89 73 87 / 60 50 70 60 GPT 71 85 70 85 / 70 50 70 70 PQL 70 87 70 85 / 70 50 60 80
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-057-058-060-064-071-076>087-089.
GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA | 24 mi | 51 min | SSE 2.9G | 87°F | 84°F | 29.79 | ||
| WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS | 25 mi | 51 min | SE 8.9G | 87°F | 80°F | 29.79 | ||
| SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA | 28 mi | 51 min | ESE 12G | 82°F | 74°F | 29.82 | ||
| CARL1 | 30 mi | 51 min | 75°F | |||||
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 47 mi | 51 min | 82°F | 82°F | 29.83 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KASD SLIDELL,LA | 6 sm | 28 min | SSE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 86°F | 66°F | 52% | 29.79 | |
| KMJD PICAYUNE MUNI,MS | 17 sm | 26 min | ESE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 88°F | 70°F | 55% | 29.78 | |
| KHSA STENNIS INTL,MS | 19 sm | 31 min | SE 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 86°F | 66°F | 52% | 29.80 | |
| KNEW LAKEFRONT,LA | 20 sm | 28 min | SSE 14 | 10 sm | Clear | 88°F | 63°F | 43% | 29.82 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Pearlington, Pearl River, Mississippi, Tide feet
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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