Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jacksonville, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Early afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1029 millibars) centered to the northeast of Bermuda, with this feature extending its axis southwestward across the FL peninsula.
Meanwhile, a weakening frontal boundary was stalling across the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas
Aloft
ridging has shifted east of the FL peninsula, allowing a more zonal flow pattern developing across the southeastern states. A weak shortwave trough was embedded within this zonal flow pattern across the Deep South, with a stronger shortwave located upstream near the Arklatex region. A healthy cumulus field was developing across our region, with the Atlantic sea breeze boundary already pushing inland towards the I-95 corridor at 16Z, with fair skies in the wake of this boundary at coastal locations. A pocket of slightly thicker cirrostratus was traversing southeast GA early this afternoon, with thin cirrus cloud cover located elsewhere. Inland temperatures have already warmed to the lower 80s at the noon hour, while breezy onshore winds in the wake of the inland moving sea breeze were keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 70s.
Dewpoints were slowly falling through the low and mid 60s at most locations.

Temperatures aloft will cool slightly this afternoon as weak shortwave energy embedded in the developing zonal flow pattern across our area drops southeastward towards our region. Low level southwesterly flow should increase PWAT values to the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range at inland locations this afternoon as mid-level temperatures cool to around -15 degrees Celsius at 500 millibars (around 20,000 feet). However, triggering mechanisms may be tough to identify across our area, as the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze across northeast and north central FL will be dealing with a more subsident air mass. Upstream convection over central AL/GA may send outflows southeastward across the Alapaha/Ocmulgee/Altamaha Rivers by late afternoon or around sunset, but short-term, high resolution models continue to indicate only isolated convection developing for locations west and north of Waycross into the early evening hours. The inland moving Atlantic sea breeze may collide with the Gulf coast sea breeze this evening along the I-10 corridor to the west of U.S.
Highway 301 to create isolated convection, but higher coverage is expected to remain across interior southeast GA. Although bulk southwesterly shear values around 30-35 knots will be modest, colder mid-level temperatures working into our region later today could cause a few storms to pulse and become strong, mainly for locations west and north of Waycross. Downburst winds of 40-50 mph, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning strikes will be the primary hazards with this activity later today through early this evening.

Breezy onshore winds will keep coastal highs close to 80 degrees this afternoon, while temperatures for locations along and west of U.S. Highway 301 will climb to the upper 80s to around 90.
Dewpoints crashing through the lower 60s this afternoon will keep maximum heat index values in check today, with values peaking around 90 at inland locations. Any convection that manages to develop late this afternoon and this evening will dissipate by midnight, with patchy to areas of fog possible towards sunrise, mainly for inland southeast GA. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s inland to the mid and upper 60s at coastal locations, where a light southeasterly breeze will continue overnight.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Seasonably warm conditions will persist through the short-term period, supporting daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms, especially across interior SE GA.

On Thursday, isolated showers may first develop early in the afternoon near a residual surface trough and leftover boundaries from Wednesday's convective episode. Convective coverage is expected to increase west of Waycross late in the day and into the evening as the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes merge and interact with outflow boundaries pushed out by storms in SW GA. Isolated storms could become strong with additional lift offered by an incoming shortwave.
Meanwhile, convection over NE FL will likely remain limited due to a lack of mid-level moisture. The upper-level impulse crossing Georgia Thursday evening may sustain isolated shower activity through the late night hours across SE GA, although most areas will remain dry.

On Friday, forecast uncertainty increases regarding moisture placement aloft and thus convective coverage. Model guidance trends toward marginal moisture remaining in southeast Georgia, with only isolated storms expected north of Waycross. Northeast Florida will remain drier, with lower rain chances.

By Saturday, moisture availability will still be limited, but isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may develop—mainly along and north of the I-10 corridor as the sea breeze progresses inland. A weakening frontal boundary approaching the region late Saturday night may provide additional forcing for showers and storms, potentially into early Sunday morning.

Temperatures will continue to climb, with highs nearing daily record values—reaching the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday afternoon.
Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the low to mid-60s.
Patchy inland fog is possible each morning where skies clear overnight.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

A backdoor cold front associated with high pressure wedging down the Eastern Seaboard will slide into the region on Sunday, helping to pool moisture along the boundary and fueling scattered afternoon storms along the east coast sea breeze.

By Monday, lingering moisture will maintain isolated to scattered storm chances (20–30%) across the area. A drying trend will then take shape on Tuesday as cooler and drier air advects in from the Atlantic behind the departing front.

Temperatures will moderate behind the front, with inland highs falling into the low to mid-80s and coastal areas remaining in the upper 70s.

MARINE
Issued at 1235 PM Wed Apr 23 2025

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis across our local waters as a weakening frontal boundary stalls across the southeastern states. Another high pressure center building to the north of this stalled front will briefly wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Thursday afternoon, creating breezy onshore winds through Thursday evening. This high pressure center will push offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts on Thursday night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern states on Saturday afternoon and evening. This front may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to our local waters on Saturday night and Sunday. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail through Sunday morning both near shore and offshore.

Strong high pressure building over the Great Lakes states in the wake of this front during the weekend will shift towards the southeastern seaboard early next week, with winds shifting to northeasterly and strengthening across our local waters by Sunday afternoon, with seas expected to gradually build on Sunday night and Monday. Seas will build to the 3-5 foot range offshore by Sunday afternoon, with Caution conditions possible across our local waters by Sunday night and Monday.

Rip Currents: A persistent easterly ocean swell will combine with breezy onshore winds will keep a lower end moderate risk in place at all area beaches through the upcoming weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1235 PM Wed Apr 23 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and early this evening and again on Thursday afternoon and evening across inland portions of southeast GA and possibly northern portions of the Suwannee Valley. Activity should become isolated across these inland locations on Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, increasingly hot temperatures at inland locations will drop minimum relative humidity values to the 30-35 percent range for locations west of I-95 corridor this afternoon and again on Thursday afternoon. Breezy easterly surface and transport winds will overspread the I-95 corridor this afternoon, and fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide.
Breezy easterly surface and transport winds will develop during the late morning hours at coastal locations on Thursday, with these winds spreading inland during the afternoon hours, creating mostly good daytime dispersion values across our region. Elevated mixing heights and southeasterly surface and transport winds on Friday will create good daytime dispersion values at most locations on Friday, with marginally high values possible across north central FL.

CLIMATE
Issued at 1235 PM Wed Apr 23 2025

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

WED THU FRI SAT SUN

JAX 92 (1970) 93 (1999) 92 (1958) 92 (2011) 94 (1986)

GNV 92 (1970) 94 (1999) 93 (1896) 93 (1908) 96 (2011)

AMG 94 (1968) 93 (1999) 91 (1958) 93 (1986) 96 (1986)

CRG 89 (2020) 92 (1999) 91 (2006) 91 (1989) 93 (2011)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 86 60 86 / 40 30 20 20 SSI 67 81 66 80 / 10 10 0 10 JAX 62 86 61 85 / 10 10 0 10 SGJ 66 81 65 82 / 10 0 0 10 GNV 61 89 60 89 / 20 0 0 10 OCF 61 91 59 90 / 20 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.