Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 5:03 AM   Moonset 6:57 PM

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AMZ452 Expires:202405080715;;796908 Fzus52 Kjax 071843 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 243 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-080715- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 243 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Friday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 243 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis -
high pressure ridge will continue to shift across the area through Thursday, with breezy south winds expected at times. Offshore winds develop by Thursday night as a cold front approaches the region. Evening southerly wind surges may lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until the cold front arrives by Friday night. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage. Brief period of strong northerly winds possible in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 04, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 90 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 072317 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 717 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Mostly dry conditions with only an isolated shower offshore near midday. The inland push of the sea breeze will be limited today as high pressure builds into the region, chances of isolated showers and storms will mainly be confined along the I-95 corridor in NE FL. Main threat concerns for any isolated t'storm would be occasional to frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall. By early evening, any shower/storm activity should clear out leading to skies becoming mostly clear across the area.
Patchy fog will be possible along the western edges of our area past midnight and clear out by sunrise. Overnight lows are expected to dip to the mid 60s over inland areas and in the low 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The overall pattern Wed and Thu shows an upper level ridge across most of the forecast area and into the Gulf of Mexico, with some mid level troughing moving in Thursday afternoon, with the upper level ridge axis beginning to shift east of the area Thursday night. At the sfc, high pressure ridge is over the central FL peninsula and will move a bit southward by Thu to southern FL, as a cold front marches east to southeast from the TN and MS valley to Appalachians. The airmass will remain dry and hot for Wed and partly on Thu with 850 mb temps rising to about 19C and thicknesses that support mid 90s over the eastern zones. Hottest temps look to be over the eastern zones as the southwest winds, breezy at times, near 15 mph gusting to 25 mph, push the hot air all the way to the coast. In other words, the east coast sea breeze is going to be hard pressed to move inland, especially on Thursday. Heat indices likely to top out around 100-103 or so.
Record highs are possible. Not heat advisory criteria but if not used to heat since it's a bit early in the year for it, it will be sensitive to more vulnerable people or those working outdoors.

Models show a decent shot of some showers and storm coming in from the west, mainly affecting southeast GA, Thursday afternoon and night, with the ECMWF developing convection faster than the GFS. GFS eventually brings in a batch of showers and potential storms (MCS type feature) by early Friday morning. Latest trend in the GFS is for somewhat better chances of precip Thu night compared to prior runs. Latest forecast shows a slight uptick in chances

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Cold frontal boundary will sag southward over the region Friday as mid to upper level trough moves through the region. Uncertainty on how things evolve early Friday and through the afternoon.
Current forecast shows showers and storms widespread over the north half of the area and more scattered to numerous further south. Latest model output suggests we may need to shift the higher POPs further south into northeast FL but will wait on further model agreement. The mid level trough moves east of the area by Friday evening and helps to push the cold front through our forecast area. Lingering precip will be possible Friday evening but the front should end up over central FL late Friday night into Saturday morning. Drier and cooler conditions Saturday and Sunday with the front well to the south and weak high pressure around 1016 mb over the TN valley. The southern stream flow is progressive so we expect the sfc high pressure to work northeast of the area Sunday night, and on Monday we see low pressure developing along a frontal boundary over the western Gulf of Mexico, and a warm front lifting up over parts of the north Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we ramp up rain chances again Monday from southwest to northeast, especially going into Monday night as well. Temperatures generally trend downward and fall below normal through at least Monday before warming up once again.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Isolated convection still possible along the NE FL Coastal Counties through 02Z, so have kept VCSH at JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ for now with the low chances of a brief shower. VFR conds through the evening then SW flow off the NE Gulf will provide enough moisture for low clouds (LIFR CIGS) and some MVFR/IFR fog at GNV/VQQ in the 08-12Z time frame, with lower chances at the other TAF sites.
Conds VFR after sunrise on Wednesday at all TAF sites with SW winds increasing to 10G15 knots, while SE sea breeze expected at 12G18 knots at SSI/SGJ during the afternoon hours.

MARINE
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure ridge will continue to shift across the area through Thursday, with breezy south winds expected at times.
Offshore winds develop by Thursday as a cold front approaches the region. Evening southerly wind surges may lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until the cold front arrives by Friday night. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage. Brief period of strong northerly winds possible in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for NE FL beaches today and Wednesday.
Moderate risk for SE GA beaches today with minor risk on Wednesday.

CLIMATE
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th
JAX 94/1977
CRG 94/1977
GNV 96/1955
AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th
JAX 96/1959
CRG 93/1977
GNV 97/1955
AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th
JAX 96/1962
CRG 93/2008
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th
JAX 94/2017
CRG 95/2003
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 92 69 92 / 0 10 0 40 SSI 70 90 72 93 / 0 10 0 20 JAX 68 95 70 95 / 10 10 0 10 SGJ 70 93 71 94 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 66 93 69 92 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 67 93 69 92 / 0 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Jacksonville Beach
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Tue -- 02:08 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EDT     5.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:15 PM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:31 PM EDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jacksonville Beach, Florida, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
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Tue -- 01:34 AM EDT     -2.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:51 AM EDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:33 PM EDT     -2.78 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     2.95 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (2) (expired 1999-12-31), knots

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