Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 4:49PM Monday December 9, 2019 11:42 AM CST (17:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:16PMMoonset 4:54AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 908 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of dense fog.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely.
Friday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 908 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected today through Tuesday. Areas of marine fog may continue to restrict visibility over northern mobile bay this morning. Areas of marine fog may again restrict visibility over bays and sounds and adjacent near shore waters again tonight. Winds shift from onshore to offshore and increase across the marine area Tuesday night into early Wednesday as a cold front moves east across the coastal waters. A moderate to strong offshore flow will then continue through late week, especially over the open gulf waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 091348 AAB AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 748 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE. Widespread dense fog has decreased in coverage over the land zones with widespread visibility beginning to improve. Thus, the dense fog advisory in effect thru 8 AM has been cancelled. Patchy fog will linger for an hour or two before completely lifting by 9 AM.

Along the land-sea interface over Mobile Bay, particularly near the Bay-Way, visibilities remain low in dense fog and the marine- based dense fog advisory has been extended thru 9 AM. /10

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 615 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . 12Z issuance . Areas of fog persist at many locations this morning, but the more widespread dense fog has dissipated with most areas now at IFR to MVFR criteria. Will still see some lower criteria in some locations (down to LIFR at a few locations) for the next several hours, tough. Surface observations indicate vsbys are generally between about 1/2 mile up to around 4 or 5 miles (or more) at many locations. While surface vsbys have improved overnight, still have solid deck of widespread very low stratus across many areas, mainly in the LIFR category. Expect these ceilings to improve to MVFR/VFR by mid morning and continuing through the day. Likely return to MVFR/IFR (or lower) ceilings and vsbys tonight as areas of fog redevelop. Only a few isolated showers possible today, but increasing in coverage from the west tonight as a cold front approaches. Coverages too isolated to include in the official TAF's. Light, mainly southerly surface winds are expected through the period. /12

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 454 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/ . Dense fog has generally dissipated across most of the region over the past few hours, and HiRes models are not really indicating much in the way of redevelopment toward sunrise. Often we do get some unexpected sunrise redevelopment however, and for now will let the Dense Fog Advisory ride with the morning forecast issuance, but will very likely update forecast toward the end of the shift to remove the Dense Fog Advisory if redevelopment does not occur. We do expect another round of fog tonight across most of the area, more patchy inland and more widespread down near the coast. Again some of this fog could be dense, especially over the southern half of the forecast area, but impossible to know "when and where" at this time. But the potential for some areas of dense fog is certainly once again there for tonight and we will have to monitor for possible Advisories. Otherwise, the weak surface low/trough that has been over the northern Gulf to the south of the forecast area for the past few days will dissipate as a high pressure ridge remains to the east of the area and a developing cold front begins to move toward the area from the west late tonight. For today, expect only a slight chance for showers, mainly over the eastern portions of the forecast area near the periphery of the surface ridge to our northwest. Then tonight, especially after midnight, look for rain chances to be increasing from the west as the front begins to move toward the area. Highs today should be in the low to mid 70s across the entire area, with lows tonight mainly in the low to mid 60s. /12

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/ . Will open up the short term with a long-wave upper trof axis aligned from the northern high plains, southwest across northern MX. Ahead of this feature in the southwest flow aloft, flow intensifies with a well defined speed max at high levels increasing to above 100 kts. Along the speed max, a zone of deep moisture increases from TX up across the central Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front is progged to be draped from the eastern Great Lakes, south across the Appalachians, bending southwest to the upper TX coast Tuesday AM. The front makes steady eastward progress Tuesday making passage across the I-65 corridor by evening before crossing southeastward over the coastal waters. PoPs increase from west to east through the day. Enough instability looks to be present to support at least a small chance of thunder. Threat for severe weather though is low given meager mid level lapse rates and weak lower level flow. Although the front makes passage Tuesday evening, the best upper level support lagging behind over TX doesn't cross the area until Wednesday afternoon. With the approach of the upper system Tuesday night and the local area closer to the more favored right rear-entrance region of a 100-130 kt speed max aloft lifting over the Lower MS River Valley to aid in larger scale ascent chances of measurable precipitation will remain high. There is good agreement on this scenario amongst the weather models and the National Blends. Although cold advection processes cause night-time lows to drop into the mid to upper 30s over the northwest tier of zones as precipitation moves across, no wintry weather expected as the colder layer is too shallow. Above the shallow, cooling boundary layer, the deep layer thermal profile is too warm. Elsewhere, Tuesday night lows dip down into the mid to upper 40s most areas. A modest PoP will be carried over into Wednesday as eastward passage of the upper trof axis brings lift over the area. Highs Wednesday will be on the cool side with lower to mid 50s interior to mid to upper 50s coast. Lows Wednesday night similar to Tuesday Night's. /10

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/ . Soon as lead southern stream mid level impulse moves out Wednesday night, next upper level storm in the southern stream progresses eastward over TX Thursday. This feature progresses eastward Friday, causing upper heights to lower supporting a weak wave of frontal low pressure to form along Gulf front. This brings a return to an unsettled weather pattern to close out the week. There are differences in the long range models with regard to timing, position and magnitude of the various features aloft and at the surface. Given the position of any surface low mostly to our south over the Gulf waters, latest data suggests chances of convection will be low over the land zones. If the low trends more northward on future guidance, then will have to monitor potential warm sector and surface based convection advancing northward off the Gulf with that scenario for Friday.

Drier conditions expected over the weekend.

Daily highs remain cool to close out the weekend, moderating more into the 60s by the weekend. Nights remain cool. /10

MARINE . A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected today and will continue through most of the day on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the marine area from the west. Areas of marine fog may restrict visibility over bays and sounds and adjacent near shore waters early this morning and again tonight. For this morning, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi sound, but conditions seem to be improving and we may be able to cancel the Fog Advisory early. Dense Fog Advisories will potentially be needed for portions of the marine area again tonight. Winds will shift from onshore to offshore and increase dramatically across the marine area on Tuesday night as a cold front moves east across the coastal waters. The moderate to strong offshore flow will then continue through late week, especially over the open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be necessary by Tuesday night and continuing through at least Thursday morning, especially over the open Gulf waters. /12

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>632.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi54 min SSW 1 G 2.9 68°F 62°F1017.5 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi32 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 71°F1017.4 hPa65°F
WBYA1 38 mi54 min 63°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi72 min 71°F 1017 hPa63°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi54 min SSW 12 G 13 68°F 1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi1.8 hrsSW 11 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F62°F76%1017.8 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi49 minSW 910.00 miFair73°F63°F71%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNPA

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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E5----------SW6W4----CalmCalmCalmSW7SW11
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1 day agoN8N9N7N9N7N8N5--------N4NE5----------------------
2 days agoNE6SE8SE85SW4--Calm--Calm----Calm----N5N5N6----------N11N7

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:55 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:48 AM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:15 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM CST     1.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.60.40.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.50.70.80.91.11.21.21.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:55 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:27 AM CST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 03:16 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:35 PM CST     1.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.911.11.11.11.11

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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