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GMZ636 Expires:202312061015;;962853 Fzus54 Kmob 052124 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 324 pm cst Tue dec 5 2023
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height...which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-061015- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 324 pm cst Tue dec 5 2023
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 324 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the day today. Strong northerly flow will briefly develop tonight though Wednesday morning in the wake of a cold front, before decreasing and turning easterly to southeasterly late in the week.

FXUS62 KTAE 052340 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 640 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

An upper level trough will dive south tonight into eastern South Carolina and Georgia, which will usher in a secondary cold front through the overnight hours tonight. This will similarly create moderate winds in the wake of the cold frontal passage during the overnight hours. Windy and gusty conditions look to continue on Wednesday as surface high pressure pushes into the region in the wake of the upper level trough and subsequent cold front passage through the region. By Wednesday evening, surface high pressure is forecast to settle into the Carolinas, which should allow near winds to taper off towards the evening hours across the region. Forecast lows tonight in the upper 30s to low 40s combined with elevated winds will create wind chills down into the mid to upper 30s areawide, making for a cooler morning across the region. Overall, expect sunny but breezy conditions on Wednesday, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to near 60 across the area.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 309 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Coldest night of the upcoming week will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning as surface high pressure and mostly clear skies fill into the region. Widespread low temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s with the extreme coastal regions in the upper 30s.
Expect areas of frost as well.

As the surface high shifts east, low-mid level becomes easterly through the Thursday. With mostly sunny skies, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday. Southwesterly upper level redevelops by the evening and overnight hours with upper level clouds on the increase. This should allow warmer temperatures overnight into Friday morning.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

An active weather pattern is looking likely again for the upcoming weekend as a large upper level trough is forecast to develop across the southern portions of the United States. While there is good agreement in high rain chances over the weekend, there are uncertainties in regards to the details that could possibly bring severe weather into the region.

Ahead of the primary potential for severe weather this weekend, weak impulses in the increasing southwest flow aloft will interact with a warm front in place to bring a slight increase in rain chances beginning late Friday. These impulses will continue to stream into the region into Saturday as the main upper level trough digs into the central and southern US. Details regarding the magnitude and timing of the potential severe threat will depend on how the upper level trough evolves with the slower/deeper Euro ensembles giving us a greater potential for severe weather compared to the more progressive GFS and more middle-ground ensemble guidance in the Canadian solutions. A majority of the ensembles indicate a fairly progressive pattern so flooding concerns with this next system should remain relatively low.

The trough likely pushes through by the end of the weekend with quieter conditions possible at the start of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

All terminals will experience a dry and stable air mass for the next 24 hours and beyond. A dry reinforcing cold front passage is expected late tonight. With its arrival before sunrise, 2,000-foot winds will become northwesterly near 30 knots in its wake. If surface winds remain light and decoupled, this could lead to a marginal case of low-level wind shear. After sunrise when winds recouple, expect gusty northwest and north winds through the day on Wednesday. Given the dry air mass, merely high cirrus clouds will prevail, with unrestricted visibility.

MARINE
Issued at 309 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Northerly flow prevails through Thursday with the main marine concerns being an increase in winds this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through. This will bring advisory level seas for the overnight hours and into the late morning and early afternoon of Wednesday. Surface high pressure moves in Thursday and Friday with winds expected to decrease and become easterly. By the upcoming weekend a return to advisory level conditions is likely as winds become southerly ahead of our next cold front.
This front will also bring the potential for strong storms and possibly a few severe storms.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 309 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Dispersions look to be on the high side on Wednesday in the wake of a cold front passage tonight; however, values are not forecast to be high enough for headlines at this time. As winds become northeasterly and become more calm on Thursday, which will drastically reduce dispersions across the area. Outside of the low dispersions, there are no fire weather concerns due to saturated soils from the recent heavy rains over the past two weekends.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 309 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

A few rivers remain above action stage, with minor flooding still occuring at Sopchoppy and Aucilla River at Lamont. The Sopchoppy is expected to recede to action stage later today, while the Aucilla at Lamont should recede sometime Wednesday.

No additional riverine concerns are anticipated but additional rainfall is expected this upcoming weekend. The progressive nature of the system should keep rainfall amounts less than 1.5 to 2.0 inches.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 309 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

A few rivers remain above action stage, with minor flooding still occuring at Sopchoppy and Aucilla River at Lamont. The Sopchoppy is expected to recede to action stage later today, while the Aucilla at Lamont should recede sometime Wednesday.

No additional riverine concerns are anticipated but additional rainfall is expected this upcoming weekend. The progressive nature of the system should keep rainfall amounts less than 1.5 to 2.0 inches.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 45 58 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 45 59 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 40 56 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 41 57 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 43 58 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 46 61 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 47 57 41 59 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for GMZ730- 755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

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West Bay Creek
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Tue -- 03:20 AM CST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:26 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:00 PM CST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Panama City Beach
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Tue -- 12:24 AM CST     0.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:31 AM CST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:26 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:41 PM CST     0.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:18 PM CST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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