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GMZ750 Expires:202312090415;;116218 Fzus52 Ktae 081529 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 1029 am est Fri dec 8 2023
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-090415- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 1029 am est Fri dec 8 2023 /929 am cst Fri dec 8 2023/
This afternoon..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters very rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds in the afternoon. Protected waters rough.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1029 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..
moderate southeasterly breezes are expected over the next day or so before becoming southerly and increasing Sunday ahead of a cold front. Breezy northwest winds are expected in the wake of the front Sunday night and Monday before gradually weakening and becoming northeasterly. Showers and storms will be possible over the waters for the next couple of days, but rain chances increase dramatically Sunday as the cold front moves through. Storms may contain gusty winds and waterspouts on Sunday.

FXUS62 KTAE 081543 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1043 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1042 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Slightly adjusted PoP's and wx grids to lower precip chances over the inland FL Panhandle for the next three hours. Otherwise, no significant changes have been made to the forecast at this time.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Surface high pressure is sliding off the Eastern Seaboard and will turn the winds out of the east to southeast throughout the day. A bit of virga, or rain evaporating before reaching the ground, is noted on area radars early this morning thanks to a dry layer between 850mb and 700 mb. Moisture increases, especially across the Florida Panhandle, today with a few showers possible later today into tonight. Temperatures generally run in the middle to upper 60s this afternoon before only cooling into the lower to middle 50s tonight. Some fog may be possible tonight, but confidence wasn't high enough to include it in the forecast at this time due to a light southeasterly breeze.

Looking at the broader picture, we're under generally southwesterly flow aloft thanks to an H5 ridge over the Greater Antilles and a trough digging across the Rockies. A couple of weak perturbations embedded within the southwesterly flow are expected to roll overhead today. One such perturbation is south of Louisiana and will aid in keeping us rather cloudy throughout the day and increase moisture levels. Precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast to climb into the 1.3" to 1.5" range this afternoon, indicating moisture returning to the area. The combination of the increased moisture and weak isentropic lift are expected to be enough to bring a few showers to the western Florida Panhandle later this afternoon into tonight. A little better instability will be available over the Gulf waters, where an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A warming and moistening trend will continue across the area on Saturday with forecast PWs rising into the 1.4 to 1.5 inch range.
Further west, a fairly sharp trough over the southern Plains will begin to push a cold front eastward towards the Southeast. This front is forecast to eventually push through the area during the day Sunday, bringing much cooler and drier air to the region in its wake.

Rain chances will begin to increase across western portions of the area on Saturday even though the front itself is not forecast to arrive until Sunday. This is mainly due to the positioning of the area within a right entrance region of the upper level jet providing fairly widespread lift across the area. This combined with ample moisture across the area will likely lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. In the low levels, there exists some marginal shear and instability. As such, a few storms could be strong to severe with the primary threats gusty winds and a brief tornado or two. SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Sunday.

Moisture return will continue right up until the frontal passage, with PWs potentially climbing into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range on Sunday. Given expected widespread coverage of storms and seasonably high PWs, some pockets of heavy rainfall may be possible. The good news is that this system is forecast to be fairly progressive with the front clearing out convection by Sunday night.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A fairly quiet long term period is forecast with no meaningful rainfall expected. Temperatures will start out quite cold in the wake of Sunday's cold front, with highs on Monday only in the low to mid 50s. Low temperatures Monday night are forecast to be the coldest of the week, ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. While some areas may drop below freezing, frost will be less likely due to dry conditions. The exception would be areas that are still saturated from previous rainfall. Northeast winds are forecast to remain in place for the rest of the period with surface high pressure remaining in place to the north. This will allow for a slow and gradual warming and moistening trend through the rest of the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at KTLH, KABY, and KVLD through the TAF period. At KECP and KDHN, MVFR ceilings are forecast to arrive later Friday afternoon into Friday evening as rain chances increase. A light southeasterly breeze is expected at all TAF sites through the period. There may also be a bit of fog for ECP and DHN around sunrise Saturday, but confidence was not high enough to include in this TAF package.

MARINE
Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Moderate southeasterly breezes are expected over the next day or so before becoming southerly and increasing Sunday ahead of a cold front. Breezy northwest winds are expected in the wake of the front Sunday night and Monday before gradually weakening and becoming northeasterly. Showers and storms will be possible over the waters for the next couple of days, but rain chances increase dramatically Sunday as the cold front moves through. Storms may contain gusty winds and waterspouts on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Low dispersions are expected this afternoon. Otherwise, fire weather concerns remain low the next couple of days. Wetting rain is forecast Sunday as a cold front pushes through the region, but a wetting rain is also possible for the Florida Panhandle this afternoon into Saturday as moisture streams back into the region ahead of the cold front.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

The Aucilla River at Lamont has finally dropped below flood stage this morning and will continue falling. The Flood Warning will be canceled.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible across the area through the event, with isolated higher amounts possible. While totals like our last system are not expected, already saturated soils and elevated rivers across Florida in particular may make those areas more susceptible to flooding with additional rainfall.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 67 57 76 61 / 10 10 30 40 Panama City 68 61 73 62 / 20 40 60 80 Dothan 64 55 74 60 / 10 30 60 80 Albany 65 53 75 60 / 10 10 40 60 Valdosta 67 55 77 61 / 10 10 20 30 Cross City 72 58 79 61 / 10 10 10 20 Apalachicola 67 63 70 64 / 20 30 40 60

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST this evening for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Panama City Beach (outside), St. Andrew Bay, Florida (sub), Tide feet

Panama City Beach
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Fri -- 02:08 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:19 AM CST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:45 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:43 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:25 PM CST     1.05 feet High Tide
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Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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