Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 12:17 AM   Moonset 10:14 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 329 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 329 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis - Winds gradually diminishing over the marine area, but a moderate southeasterly flow will continue over offshore gulf waters through tonight. A lighter onshore flow will then persist over the marine area through most of the remainder of the week. Seas subside somewhat Tuesday through Tuesday night and remain low through the remainder of the week.

FXUS62 KTAE 291009 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 609 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Surface high pressure off the Carolinas will keep southeasterly breezes in the forecast today with a gradual increase in low level moisture. Some of the hi-res guidance is suggesting a very low chance for an isolated shower in the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama later this afternoon. However, anemic forcing and lack of deeper moisture is expected to keep rain chances below 20 percent for today. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 80s away from the coast with overnight lows mostly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A shortwave looks to move across the region on Tuesday. With MLCAPE around or above 2000 J/kg and a little wind shear in place, we could see a few thunderstorms attempt to become sub-severe.
Some gusty winds could be possible. Otherwise, expect scattered showers on Tuesday as the shortwave moves eastward. By Wednesday we're on the backside of the shortwave with northerly flow inland, before the sea breeze attempts to push north in the afternoon, and lowering dew points. Mostly clear and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with some 90s possibly sprinkled in on Wednesday. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Upper-level ridging will persist throughout the long term leading to rather benign conditions across the region. On Saturday, another shortwave looks to move across the southeast to our north.
Although, when compared to the one in the short term, this shortwave will be lifting off to the northeast. Thus, it's ability to induce showers and storms across our region will be less than that of the previous shortwave. PoPs look to generally remain below 25% Saturday afternoon.

Expect warm temps throughout the long term, highs look to generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows look to generally be in the mid 60s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the period.
There could be some patchy fog near dawn on Tuesday around TLH, ECP, and DHN, but confidence is not terribly high at the moment.
Southeasterly to southerly winds will increase somewhat by late this morning for most areas with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible until around sunset.

MARINE
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Another surge of strong east to southeast breezes is expected through sunrise this morning. Starting later this morning, pressure gradients will begin to gradually relax. A small bubble of high pressure will develop over the northeast and eastern Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, then persist through Friday. This will bring mainly light and gentle breezes for the second half of this week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue today as moisture levels gradually increase. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over most of the area on Tuesday.
However, widespread wetting rains are not anticipated through at least the middle of the week. Locally high dispersions remain a concern across southeastern Alabama. When coupled with the recent dry spell, this could lead to slightly elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Dispersions are forecast to remain high for portions of the region on Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Minor flooding continues along much of the Lower Suwannee River, though the river is falling in a characteristically slow fashion.
The Flood Warning continues at Rock Bluff, Branford, and Manatee Springs. Manatee Springs is forecast to be the last river forecast point to fall below flood stage on Thursday morning.

No new or additional flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 86 62 86 66 / 0 0 30 10 Panama City 81 66 81 67 / 0 10 30 0 Dothan 85 63 85 65 / 10 10 50 10 Albany 85 63 86 64 / 10 0 50 10 Valdosta 85 64 88 65 / 0 0 30 10 Cross City 85 62 86 63 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 77 68 78 68 / 0 0 10 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

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West Bay Creek
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Mon -- 12:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:08 AM CDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:13 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:16 PM CDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Panama City Beach
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Mon -- 12:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:13 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:08 PM CDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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