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GMZ636 Expires:202312042215;;878291 Fzus54 Kmob 040944 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 344 am cst Mon dec 4 2023
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height...which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-042215- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 344 am cst Mon dec 4 2023
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.

GMZ600 344 Am Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow continues through the middle of the week in the wake of a cold front. Moderate to strong offshore flow may develop Wednesday before turning easterly and relaxing by the end of the week.

FXUS62 KTAE 040917 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 417 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A cold front is currently moving through the Tri-State area early this morning. The combination of calm winds, saturated grounds, and the cold front moving through the region has led to the formation of some dense fog in places. The fog has been in pockets, at least so far, due to brief periods of wind between 2 to 5 mph. Denser fog is forecast to form around sunrise this morning as winds across the region go calm. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 10AM EST/9AM CST for the entire area. It remains to be seen how much sunshine we can muster today once the fog dissipates thanks to southwesterly upper-level flow sending us high clouds.
Despite this, drier air in the lower levels filters in behind the cold front later this morning as rain chances get taken out of the forecast. Daytime highs generally warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s, or slightly above normal for early December. A mostly to partly cloudy sky tonight allows temperatures to dip into the lower to middle 40s.



SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 353 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Quiet weather prevails with disturbance passing well to our north.
This will sweep a dry cold front across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds behind that allowing the cooling and drying trend to continue.

Outside of that, the main story for this period will be falling temperatures. Highs for Tuesday will generally be in the low to mid 60s, which is about 5 degrees below the seasonal average. For Wednesday highs will be even lower with areas north of I-10 in the mid to upper 50s and areas south in the upper 50s to near 60.
This about 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average. In terms of lows, they follow the same trend. Tuesday night into Wednesday look for temperatures north of I-10 to be in the low 40s and south of there in the low to mid 40s. The coldest night of the week should be Wednesday night into Thursday morning, where most areas will fall in the 30s. The coldest air is anticipated to be in GA and AL, especially along and in between the Chattahoochee and Flint rivers where lows may bottom out in the upper 20s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Temperatures start to improve. Brief surface high pressure and upper level ridging should hold through Friday. Come the weekend, clusters show an upper level trough sliding through the Plains and advancing east towards the OH/TN river valley. This should bring a change in the weather pattern once again. Rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible, but it's too early to determine weather or not severe weather will be a factor for us.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

The biggest challenge tonight is going to be visibility, especially for KTLH, KVLD, and KABY. LIFR to VLIFR visibility is expected much of the night for those three sites, but there is the chance for it to begin lifting after 09Z/10Z. For KECP and KDHN, there is a chance for some fog formation, but confidence wasn't high enough to include in their TAFs at this time. Amendments may be necessary tonight depending on how the fog/visibility behaves tonight.

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail once the front moves through with winds turning out of the west to northwest at around 10 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 353 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Areas of dense fog are expected across Apalachee Bay through mid morning with visibilities around 1 nautical mile or less.
Winds are forecast to shift from the northwest to the west- northwest and west by mid to late afternoon. Winds may briefly flirt around exercise caution levels today, west of Apalachicola.
A second cold front will cross the waters Tuesday night increasing winds to near advisory levels. Winds will then shift to the east and diminish from Thursday through Friday as high pressure builds north of the region. Unsettled weather may return for the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 353 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A couple of cold fronts, one today and another later Tuesday, will keep things cool and dry much of the work week. There are currently no fire weather concerns expected outside of some higher dispersions by the middle of the week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 353 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

The main concern for the time being is riverine flooding. Because precursor conditions were so dry prior to the past weekend's rainfall, the lower reaches of main stem rivers observed some rises, with minimal river flooding observed or forecast. The exceptions remain the Sopchoppy and Aucilla Rivers. Moderate flooding has occurred at Sopchoppy with minor flooding expected along the Aucilla River at Lamont.

Dry weather is forecast through much of the week with the next chance for rain being over the weekend. The next system currently looks to have a faster pace, which would limit the flood potential.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 71 48 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 70 49 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 68 42 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 69 44 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 71 46 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 74 49 67 46 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 71 50 63 47 / 10 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114-115-118-127-128.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161.

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GMZ730-755- 765.

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Panama City Beach
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Mon -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:18 AM CST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:00 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

West Bay Creek
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Mon -- 02:53 AM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:00 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:02 PM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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