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Marine Weather and Tides Miramar Beach, FL Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:10AM

Sunset 5:46PM

Monday March 1, 2021 8:14 PM CST (02:14 UTC)

Moonrise 9:30PM

Moonset 8:53AM

Illumination 88%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miramar Beach, FL

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Area Discussion for -

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FXUS62 KTAE 020051 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 751 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

UPDATE. The cold front has cleared all but the Southeast FL Bend as of 00z with temperatures falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s in its wake. Meanwhile, overrunning precipitation continued across much of the region. Showers continue overnight accompanied by patchy fog. Temperatures will bottom out in the 50s across much of the region with northerly winds around 5 to 10 mph.

PREV DISCUSSION [650 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday].

The approaching cold front has almost cleared SE Alabama and Georgia this afternoon, and is expected to continue to push into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours. Ahead of the front across the Florida Panhandle, heavy showers and thunderstorms have moved in, and are spreading eastward. These storms are expected to take advantage of the slightly enhanced instability across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon, and become more widespread through the evening. With 60+ knots of effective bulk shear, there is the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon and evening; however, a rather strong mid-layer cap was observed on the 12 UTC TLH sounding this morning, which will act to inhibit any updrafts from growing upscale in nature. This seems to be the predominant limiting factor for these storms this evening. Through tomorrow, temperatures will continue to fall across the region as the cold front pushes south; however, the developing gulf low will start to develop towards the end of the near term period. This will keep the cold front stationary across the region before the surface low pressure system pushes across the region late Tuesday. High temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler with mid 50s expected across SE Alabama and Georgia, and low 60s to mid 60s across the Florida Panhandle and coastal regions.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night].

Showers with some embedded thunder will be ongoing at the beginning of the period. There is a chance for a severe storm or two over the waters and near the coast in the Panhandle and western Big Bend tmrw evening. This will occur as a surface low tracks across the area allowing a narrow ribbon of surface based instability to push inland into a highly sheared environment. Not looking like too big a deal right now but something to keep an eye on. Locally heavy rain will also be possible - check the hydrology section for more detail. Rain will move out by late morning Wednesday with dry and cooler air for the rest of the period.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday].

High pressure will dominate Thursday and much of Friday with a drier and cooler weather on tap. Weak area of low pressure will then clip southeast from TX through the northern Gulf Friday Night into Saturday as upper low opens up and shears across the region. This will bring a renewed chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area with better chances over the FL Big Bend and across the Gulf waters. High pressure will then build back in with dry weather returning.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Wednesday]

Restrictions at ABY, TLH, AND ECP are expected to lift to VFR around 03z, while DHN and VLD are initially VFR. Cigs will lower 06-12z to at least MVFR at all TAF sites as renewed SHRA move across the terminals, with further deterioration to IFR/LIFR thereafter. North winds gradually veer easterly 5-10 kts through the period.

MARINE.

SCA conditions mainly over the waters off the Panhandle tonight into Tuesday behind a cold front. Brief SCA conditions are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday Morning as low pressure tracks through the waters. Thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible late Tuesday as well. High pressure will then build in with lighter winds and seas for the remainder of the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER.

Wet conditions over the next two days will lead to no fire weather concerns at this time.

Hydrology. Focus over the next 48-72 hours will be the approaching storm system Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning and the rainfall potential associated with it. Most of the model guidance suggests the heaviest rain would be across our Georgia counties, particularly within the Flint, Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins. These areas have had a great deal of rainfall over the last month and are particularly vulnerable to river flooding following heavy rains. Based on MMEFS guidance, 2-3 inches of rain would be sufficient to produce minor flooding in the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins, but it would take a little more (up to 4 inches) to produce minor flooding within the Kinch/Muck creek basins north of Albany. This is all within the realm of possibilities after reviewing the afternoon model guidance, which does indicate some of the heavier rainfall totals.

This system will be a quick mover, so the potential for flash flooding is somewhat reduced. However, heavy rainfall rates occurring over an urban area like Albany or Tifton could create the potential for flash flooding Tuesday night. It's still a little too early for a flash flood watch, as we'd need rainfall amounts of 3-4 inches, and confidence in the higher amounts is not great enough to warrant a watch at this time.

Elsewhere across the region, ongoing river flooding continues in the Middle Suwannee. The river has crested at Luraville at about 21.5kcfs and we should see the crest occur at Branford tomorrow evening. Projecting these flows downstream below Rock Bluff, it appears as though we'll end up just short of minor flood stage at Wilcox, and possibly at Manatee Springs as well.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 58 62 55 64 47 / 70 50 80 30 0 Panama City 59 66 54 62 49 / 60 40 90 10 0 Dothan 50 54 49 59 44 / 60 90 100 10 0 Albany 50 54 48 59 43 / 60 80 100 30 0 Valdosta 55 60 52 61 45 / 60 80 80 40 0 Cross City 61 67 60 69 49 / 40 30 60 50 0 Apalachicola 60 66 56 64 50 / 70 30 70 20 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for Coastal Bay- South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



UPDATE . LF NEAR TERM . Bunker SHORT TERM . Johnstone LONG TERM . Johnstone AVIATION . LF MARINE . Johnstone FIRE WEATHER . Johnstone HYDROLOGY . Godsey

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PCBF1	16 mi	57 min	NE 16 G 22	60°F	65°F		1019.4 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL	28 mi	57 min	NNE 13 G 19
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL	56 mi	57 min	NNE 5.1 G 9.9	61°F	65°F		1020 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL	74 mi	57 min	NNE 15 G 19	64°F	66°F		1019 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL

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SE9

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1 day ago

E6 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL	18 mi	22 min	NNE 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	61°F	58°F	90%	1019.8 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL	20 mi	22 min	NE 12 G 19	10.00 mi	Overcast	59°F	56°F	90%	1020.4 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL	23 mi	19 min	NNE 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	59°F	57°F	93%	1020.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDTS

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)

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NW5 G15

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NE12 G22

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1 day ago

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SE14 G23

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Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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