Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 3:42 AM   Moonset 3:51 PM

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GMZ636 Expires:202405042215;;598430 Fzus54 Kmob 040939 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 439 am cdt Sat may 4 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-042215- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 439 am cdt Sat may 4 2024
Today - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast late this morning, then becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog early this morning. Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. Patchy fog. Sunday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Wednesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 439 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KTAE 040742 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 342 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Satellite shows the axis of an approaching shortwave currently over Alabama this morning. This shortwave will rotate across the area through the day, leading to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing today into this evening. Forecast soundings show fairly good CAPE and DCAPE values around 800 J/kg, indicating some potential for a few stronger storms with gusty winds today. A few storms could also produce isolated pockets of heavy rainfall, but widespread heavy rainfall or flooding is not expected. While remaining quite warm, highs today will be a touch cooler than the previous few days due to the increased cloud cover and rain chances today. Lows will remain in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms linger in the forecast Sunday and Monday afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 for highs and overnight lows only manage the middle to upper 60s.

General troughiness at H5 should allow for a somewhat active sea breeze again Sunday afternoon. Ample moisture coupled with weak steering flow could lead to a localized flooding threat if any one shower/storm lingers over an area for too long. We'll also be on the lookout for outflow boundaries that could interact with other outflow boundaries or the sea breeze to spark additional showers and storms. The best chance for that occurring is generally east of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers, with a lesser chance, around 30 percent, for our western areas.

Another H5 shortwave is forecast to mosey north of our area during the day Monday and could lead to additional showers and storms Monday afternoon, especially along the I-75 corridor.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

To quote Glenn Frey: The heat is on. That about sums up the long term forecast for the rest of the work week. In fact, record highs could be challenged around the region as a ridge of high pressure takes over across the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeast. Not much relief is expected at night with lows only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s around much of the region.

The good news? A cold front is forecast to approach the region late in the period into next weekend and should push temperatures back to near normal, maybe even below normal, by Mother's Day weekend.

All of this is heat is due to a developing H5 ridge over the Gulf of Mexico nudging north into the Southeast. Meanwhile, an H5 trough diving out of Canada Wednesday into Thursday could help keep the H5 ridge a little south than forecast. In other words, there remains some uncertainty as to just how warm we get across the region during the period. While the lower 90s are expected away from the immediate coast, there is a low chance, less than 10 percent, of a few locations reaching into the middle 90s each afternoon. Overnight lows will be well above normal each night with upper 60s to lower 70s. In fact, sites along the immediate coast may not dip much below the mid 70s Tuesday night and beyond.

Fortunately, the H5 trough mentioned above will slowly push a cold front into the region sometime Friday or Saturday. This should put a damper on the summer-like heat by Mother's Day weekend and push temperatures closer to normal, or mid 80s for highs and near 60 for lows.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Fog and/or low stratus will be possible across most of the area this morning with light showers also possible across the northern sites. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid to late morning.
Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected this afternoon, with the best chances across TLH/ABY/VLD.

MARINE
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Tranquil boating conditions continue through the weekend and into next week as high pressure hangs out in the western Atlantic. Light winds, generally out of the south-southeast, are expected with seas around 2 feet through the weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and storms today and again Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area today with gusty erratic winds possible in and around storms.
Generally onshore flow is expected for the next several days except at times overnight when a land breeze may set up. Expect a sea breeze to develop and move inland each afternoon. Mixing heights will increase Monday, leading to the potential for high dispersions in the afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Ample moisture coupled with the potential for slow-moving showers and storms this afternoon could lead to a localized flooding threat later today. The latest HRRR is showing a 40 to 60 percent chance of rainfall in excess of 3" across our eastern timezone counties, or east of the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola Rivers, over the next 48 hours. If these higher rainfall totals come to fruition, localized street flooding is possible, especially if it falls in the more urban areas. Drier weather takes over next week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 87 66 89 68 / 50 40 30 10 Panama City 84 68 85 69 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 88 66 88 66 / 30 40 30 0 Albany 87 65 88 67 / 70 70 40 10 Valdosta 86 65 89 67 / 60 60 50 10 Cross City 87 65 88 66 / 40 20 40 10 Apalachicola 80 70 81 70 / 10 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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West Bay Creek
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Sat -- 03:40 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:02 AM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:55 AM CDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:13 PM CDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Panama City Beach
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Sat -- 01:27 AM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:53 AM CDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:08 PM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM CDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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