Bay St. Louis, MS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay St. Louis, MS

June 15, 2024 9:04 PM CDT (02:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM
Moonrise 2:16 PM   Moonset 1:40 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 404 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 15 2024

.small craft exercise caution in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning - .

Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.

Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers, Thunderstorms.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.

Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers with Thunderstorms likely.

Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.

Tuesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Tuesday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.

Wednesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.

Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 404 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 15 2024

Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure over the area today will shift to the east on Sunday, and winds will turn more persistent from the south-southeast. These winds will strengthen to small craft advisory levels on Monday in response to a broad area of low pressure developing in the bay of campeche, and these stronger winds of 20 to 30 knots will then persist through the middle of the week. Seas will also build in response to the strengthening winds with seas of up to 10 feet expected in the offshore waters by Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay St. Louis, MS
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Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 152329 AAA AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 629 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

NEW AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Dry air above 750mb is keeping our area hot and dry today, with highs across the area expected to reach the upper 90s. This is largely due to the ridge over the southeast CONUS. The ridge and suppression will cause the highs today to flirt with daily records at some sites.

Once we get into tonight and tomorrow, a subtle inverted shortwave from the Gulf will bring in deep tropical moisture across the area, especially south of I-10/12. The moistening up of the air column will feature PW from 1.4 in to over 2 inches by Sunday afternoon, which will be flirting with the daily max for that day. This deep tropical moisture from the gulf will lead to very efficient showers with the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. South of I- 10/12 will have the highest deep tropical moisture, so the threat seems to be maximized there Sunday afternoon through the overnight.

The rainfall seems to be more scattered in nature Sunday afternoon and evening, so rainfall totals are about an inch during that timeframe. Higher PW of 2.2 inches look to advect into the area during the late evening Sunday and through Monday morning. This is when the high-res guidance has the bulk of the rainfall in the short- term. During the 7pm Sunday to 7am Monday timeframe, places south of I-10/12 could see rainfall up to 2 or 3 inches with a reasonable maximum of 5-6 inches in localized areas. Of course, the urban areas such as the New Orleans and Houma-Thibodaux metro area would be most susceptible to flash flooding if the high totals occur during that time period. With the main threat being overnight and continuing into the long term, its best to be weather aware.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Deep tropical moisture (>2.2" PWAT, near daily records) will continue to stream into the area from the southeast through the early part of the work week bringing with it heavy rainfall and subsequent flash flooding concerns especially for urban and poor drainage areas. The primary focus for our heaviest rainfall potential will be Monday and Tuesday where high PWATs coupled with favorable diffluent flow aloft from upper-level troughing will yield periods of heavy rain with high rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour possible. NBM guidance favors rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches along coastal areas and 4 to 6 inches along the I-10/12 corridor, lower further inland, with reasonable worst case being about 2 inches higher than the forecasted totals currently. However, it's worth noting that the rainfall gradient will probably much tighter from south to north depending on the track of the broad surface low and the deep tropical moisture position across the northern flank of the surface trough axis. With that said, the flash flood risk is evident so a Flood Watch may be warranted for Monday into Tuesday with the subsequent forecast package. As this broad area of low pressure moves toward the western Gulf coast on Wednesday, the surge of deep tropical moisture will follow it and allow for drier continental air from the northeast to sneak back into the area and reduce PWAT values. Onshore southeasterly flow will keep rain chances elevated, but more typical of afternoon convective regime we see in the summer. This will also allow temperatures to rebound some with more sunshine during the first half of the day on Thursday and Friday.

Additional wind-driven hazards will also materialize as the broad area of low pressure attempts to consolidate over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with the Central American Gyre (CAG)
and the Bermuda High noses in across the southeast CONUS. This will quickly tighten the pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico and generate a corridor of stout 850mb winds (35-45 knots) primarily to the southwest of our area Monday through Wednesday. We can expect upwards of 20-25 mph winds and gusts up to 30 mph across coastal areas during this period. Though the highest winds will not reach our area, the stout southeasterly flow will generate gusty winds across the coastal areas and marine zones that will drive a large fetch of water inland. Coastal flood concerns have increased since yesterday with latest PETSS forecasts indicating inundation of water above normally dry ground beginning on Monday and increasing through midweek. Water heights 2 to 3 feet above normally dry ground are now in the forecast by Tuesday into Wednesday. While southeasterly winds do relax slightly into the latter half of the week, onshore flow persists through the period and this could prolong coastal flood concerns through the remainder of the week.

Aside from the broad low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, no other entities are outlooked at this time and we do not expect significant impacts from any tropical systems for the next 7 days.
That said, we will continue to monitor trends in the latest global guidance regarding a weak surface trough that attempts to consolidate in latest 12Z guidance and moves west under the influence of the large Bermuda High toward the Florida Peninsula. It is far too uncertain and inconsistent at this time to be discussing anything with regards to potential impacts to the local area as it pertains to any of these systems suggested by long range global guidance.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions through the evening and into Sunday morning for all terminals. Beyond this, convection will be on the increase generally from southeast to northwest. Used PROB30s for the far west and northern terminals. Used -shra and VCTS elsewhere given the low confidence in timing and coverage. Under the heaviest storms conditions may drop to IFR, but for now given the lower confidence kept things in the MVFR/VFR range. Subsequent forecasts may highlight changes including the need for lower flight categories. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A tightening pressure gradient between a high over the Southeast CONUS and a strengthening area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche will result in an extended period of small craft advisory conditions over the coastal waters during the upcoming week.
These small craft conditions with winds of 20 to 25 knots and frequent gusts in excess of 30 knots are expected to develop as early as Sunday night, but more likely on Monday and then continue through Thursday. These winds extend across a long fetch from the eastern Gulf, and this will allow for a decent swell of 2 to 3 feet to move into the area. This swell will combine with wind waves of 5 to 7 feet to push offshore seas to around 10 feet during the week. Wave run-up along east and south facing shores will also be an issue through the week, and coastal flooding is anticipated to occur during high tide cycles starting on Tuesday and continuing through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 70 90 72 84 / 0 70 40 90 BTR 75 93 76 87 / 0 80 40 90 ASD 75 90 76 87 / 10 80 70 90 MSY 79 90 79 87 / 10 90 80 90 GPT 78 89 77 84 / 10 80 70 90 PQL 75 91 76 89 / 20 80 70 90

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 1 mi47 minESE 8.9G11 91°F 90°F29.88
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 36 mi47 minE 8G8.9 87°F 83°F29.91
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 41 mi47 min 86°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 44 mi47 minESE 7G8.9 83°F 29.91
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi47 minE 1G6 88°F 90°F29.91
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 48 mi80 minESE 8.9 87°F 29.9578°F


Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KHSA STENNIS INTL,MS 8 sm77 mincalm10 smClear88°F66°F49%29.90
KGPT GULFPORTBILOXI INTL,MS 15 sm71 minESE 0710 smClear88°F72°F59%29.90
KMJD PICAYUNE MUNI,MS 21 sm29 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy79°F73°F84%29.90
KBIX KEESLER AFB,MS 23 sm69 minSE 0410 smClear88°F68°F52%29.88
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHSA
   
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Wind History graph: HSA
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
   
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Bay St. Louis
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Sat -- 12:24 AM CDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:39 AM CDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:16 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:05 PM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.7
2
am
0.7
3
am
0.8
4
am
0.8
5
am
0.8
6
am
0.9
7
am
1
8
am
1.1
9
am
1.1
10
am
1.2
11
am
1.2
12
pm
1.1
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
1
3
pm
0.9
4
pm
0.8
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.5
8
pm
0.5
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
0.6
11
pm
0.6


Tide / Current for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
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Sat -- 12:35 AM CDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:10 AM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:15 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:30 PM CDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.7
2
am
0.7
3
am
0.8
4
am
0.8
5
am
0.9
6
am
1
7
am
1.1
8
am
1.1
9
am
1.1
10
am
1.1
11
am
1
12
pm
0.9
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
0.7
4
pm
0.7
5
pm
0.6
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.6
8
pm
0.6
9
pm
0.6
10
pm
0.6
11
pm
0.7


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast   
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New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,




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