Saturday, September19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:57PM Saturday September 19, 2020 2:30 PM CDT (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:04AMMoonset 8:50PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 959 Am Cdt Sat Sep 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely until late afternoon, then chance of showers late.
Tonight..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sunday night..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Monday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 959 Am Cdt Sat Sep 19 2020
Synopsis..A weak frontal zone draped across the region will continue to slowly erode over the weekend. Tropical storm beta, located over the western gulf of mexico, will continue to meander over the west and northwestern gulf through early next week. Refer to the latest advisories issued by the national hurricane center regarding tropical storm beta.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, MS
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location: 30.32, -89.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 191739 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

UPDATE. Updated for the 18z aviation discussion.

AVIATION. MVFR conditions are prevailing at most area airports and will prevail through the next day. Vicinity showers and rain are causing lower ceilings and visibilities at some area airports, especially along the coastal areas. This rain could persist through the evening and into tomorrow, so lower ceilings and visibilities are possible through the forecast period. Some gusty winds are also possible along the coastal areas this afternoon into the evening hours. MSW

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 518 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020/

DISCUSSION. No rest for the weary. Tropical Depression 22 became Tropical Storm Beta yesterday and continued to move to the north- northeast through the day. Beta finally turned more north late last night but the slightly farther north and east track has gotten closer to the area to necessitate the issuance of tropical storm watches for our coastal waters west of the mouth of the MS River. It has also led to widespread light rain across much of the area and it looks like we will remain in this wet pattern for a few days at least.

Today and through the weekend . Focus is on obviously on Beta but the rain we are seeing today and through the weekend is a byproduct of it. The region will not be lacking for moisture as PWs will remain abv 2". There is a shield of rain over SELA and it continues to become more enhanced just south of the region and looks to line up over the area today and through Sunday. GFS had indicated this potential about 24 hrs ago and it is now setting up. This appears to be associated with a number of features. First we have a deformation zone set up across SELA. This is occurring under the RRQ of a strong jet and with abundant moisture in place, showers have and will not be difficult to come by. Right now it is mostly light to moderate rain and should remain that way but on Sunday it there could be pockets of heavier rain. We will see LL theta e values increase and the ridge will stretch across SELA while instability may be just a tad higher. This could finally lead to a a few thunderstorms.

Beta is expected to turn to the west late today and move towards the central TX coast. However, the latest forecast slows Beat as it approaches the coast and turns it to the northeast in response to a digging trough. This forecast looks very fishy and lets be honest there is a lot of uncertainty but there are quite a few models that suggest this track. That said all interest in the Gulf from the Rio Grande to the Louisiana need to closely watch this forecast for Beta. Even with the current forecast there is a chance that our area could see quite a bit of rain through Wednesday and when everything is said and done it would not be out of the question for some impressive rainfall totals and possibly even some flash flooding.

Outside of Beta we have some indirect impacts occurring. We are already seeing moderate to strong easterly winds in the LL due to Beta and a strong broad area of high pressure well to the northeast. These onshore winds are leading to elevated tides. With these strong easterly winds expected through at least Wednesday tides will continue to trend up. Across much of the area we will see tides 1-3 feet above normal. A few sites like Shell Beach and Waveland could see tide values around 4-5 MLLW which is just under 3 feet above normal. This is still in Coastal Flood advisory levels but if there is any more deviation in the track to the north and east, especially in the short term then these values could go up and additional tropical products could.

This could be a rather long term event as Beta could remain around the area through the middle of next week. With that please continue to follow the latest forecast on Beta and prepare for impacts. /CAB/

AVIATION . Overall conditions aren't too bad. We do have light shra across much of the area but cigs are still above 3500 ft. This won't last long as deeper moisture and heavier showers push in later today. MVFR and even tempo IFR cigs will begin to impact much of the area around and after 15z. Cigs will likely range from 1500-2500 over most places outside of MCB and BTR. /CAB/

MARINE . Conditions continue to go downhill. With the Beta moving a little more to the north and east we have added the coastal waters west of the mouth of river into the Tropical Storm Watch. Elsewhere is a Small craft advisory. The strong easterly winds will continue through Wednesday and at the least Small Craft advisory will probably be needed. The strong easterly winds are also leading to rising tides and this was discussed earlier. Conditions may begin to improve late next week but that is quite uncertain right now. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 67 79 64 75 / 10 20 20 30 BTR 69 81 67 76 / 20 40 30 50 ASD 67 80 65 76 / 30 40 30 40 MSY 72 78 71 77 / 40 50 40 50 GPT 68 78 66 76 / 30 30 20 30 PQL 66 79 63 79 / 20 20 20 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for LAZ040-049- 050-058-060>062-064-066>070-072.

GM . Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-555-557-575-577.

MS . Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ080>082.

GM . Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-555-557-575-577.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 10 mi42 min ENE 13 G 15 76°F 76°F1015.6 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 31 mi42 min 80°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 34 mi42 min NE 17 G 20 75°F 1015.4 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 38 mi105 min NE 8 74°F 1017 hPa71°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 42 mi42 min ENE 19 G 22 74°F 79°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for West Pier, Port of Gulfport, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS7 mi37 minNNE 88.00 miLight Rain73°F69°F87%1015.3 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS14 mi2.6 hrsNE 710.00 miLight Rain72°F70°F95%1016.5 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS17 mi40 minNE 87.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F69°F94%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGPT

Wind History from GPT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N5N3N5N5N6NE4N8N5N5N7N8N6N7NE9NE8NE9N9NE9NE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Gulfport, Gulfport Harbor, Mississippi
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Gulfport
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:19 AM CDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:03 AM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:14 PM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:54 PM CDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.110.90.80.60.50.40.50.60.80.911.11.11.110.90.90.80.911.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:11 AM CDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.41.31.21.1110.90.90.90.911.11.21.21.31.31.41.51.51.61.71.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.