Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Long Beach, MS

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

As we head into Wednesday through the weekend, rain chances will be quite enhanced due to the influence of a nearby Gulf disturbance, which has a 30% (low) chance of development per NHC in the next 7 days. There is some model uncertainty in how to handle this system, but generally increased Gulf moisture from the disturbance trending westward will likely influence our area.
Currently, the main impacts we may expect from this system will be locally heavy rainfall. While increased rain chances begin starting Wednesday, the bulk of the rainfall will occur on Thursday and Friday (and potentially into the weekend). Wednesday, there is still a little bit of uncertainty in the arrival timing of the rainfall. A lot will depend on the strength of the ridge as it breaks down mid-week. But generally, we should start to see some enhanced PoPs and rainfall coverage by Wednesday afternoon, increasing as we head into Thursday and Friday.

Thursday and Friday, the bulk of the rainfall from the Gulf disturbance is expected to impact the area. Conditions look very favorable for flash flooding, and this will be a very big concern. Generally looking at model soundings, PW values are around 2-2.2 inches, which above the 90th percentile for SPC sounding climatology. This combined with the deep layer moisture and an abundant source from the Gulf will create for some highly efficient rainfall for our area. Additionally, some of the soundings are hinting at parallel flow throughout the atmospheric column as well as extremely low shear due to the system getting a bit trapped, which would be a major issue that could lead to training and backbuilding of storms. If this occurs, rainfall totals could very well exceed any forecast amounts. It will all depend on how the pattern develops in the next 1-2 days, and there is still some uncertainty for the late week. Regardless, WPC has outlooked us in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Thursday and Friday to reflect the risk of heavy rainfall. We will continue to monitor closely through the next few days, but this event has the potential to be a major rain producer for our area, so please keep tuned into the forecast for changes. MSW

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. Some afternoon and early evening showers and storms are forecast at all area airports that will briefly drop conditions to MVFR, and TEMPO groups are in effect to represent this concern. MSW

MARINE
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Benign conditions will continue through the next few days as high pressure remains overhead or at least nearby. Winds generally onshore at 10 knots or less with seas under 2 feet. The only exception would be brief gale force wind gusts from isolated storms. A broad area of low pressure moving into the northeastern Gulf later this week will increase winds/seas over local waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 94 74 95 / 10 20 0 40 BTR 75 94 75 95 / 10 20 0 40 ASD 73 94 75 93 / 10 20 10 60 MSY 78 94 79 94 / 10 30 10 60 GPT 76 95 77 94 / 10 30 30 70 PQL 74 96 75 93 / 10 30 40 80

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ046>048-056>060- 064-065-070-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.