Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mandeville, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:30PM Monday August 26, 2019 3:58 AM CDT (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:14AMMoonset 3:38PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 912 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely early in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 912 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis..A broad area of low pressure will pass through the area tonight into tomorrow. High pressure will briefly build back in for Tuesday, but a front is expected to push into the coastal waters on Wednesday. High pressure will then settle over the waters for Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mandeville, LA
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location: 30.33, -90.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 252048
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
348 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Short term No major shifts in thinking through Tuesday night in
terms of the forecast. The combination of a shortwave trough axis
and a pool of deeper tropical moisture associated with a tropical
wave merging with the upper level trough will keep higher rain
chances in the forecast through tomorrow morning. Have likely to
categorical pop values in place for the entire forecast area, and
locally heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches could still occur tonight
into early tomorrow morning. Given this threat, have decided to
keep the flash flood watch in effect for tonight.

All of the guidance is in agreement that the trough axis will
begin to stall as it moves offshore of southeast louisiana and
east of coastal mississippi, and that the pool of deeper tropical
moisture will also shift toward alabama and georgia. As a result,
gradually decreasing rain chances are in the forecast for
tomorrow afternoon and evening across much of the forecast area.

However, the trough axis will linger over the coastal waters
tomorrow night. Forcing associated with this trough axis combined
with maximized instability over the waters during the overnight
and early morning hours should support likely pop values in sounds
and offshore marine zones. Temperatures through tomorrow
afternoon will remain cooler than average due to the expected
cloud cover in place.

The trough axis will shift back inland during the day on Tuesday,
and this will support scattered shower and thunderstorm
development from late morning through the early evening hours
across much of the forecast area. Have decided to go with high end
chance pop values of 50 percent to reflect this risk. Temperatures
on Tuesday will also climb back to more normal as a more typical
partly cloudy sky is expected. Any convection should die off over
land based zones in the evening hours, but land breeze induced
convection should fire up over the eastern waters later Tuesday
night.

Long term Wednesday into Wednesday night will be a period of
transition as a much stronger northern stream trough axis dives
into the southeastern conus, and an associated surface boundary
slides through the forecast area. This front will serve as a focus
for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon
into evening, and drier air in the mid-levels could support a few
stronger wind events with any deeper thunderstorms that develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strong dry air advection into the
region late Wednesday night will lead to clearing skies and lower
humidity values. Lows should dip into the lower 70s over the
northern part of the CWA by Thursday morning.

The strong dry air advection on the back of a deep layer northeast
flow pattern will allow for a very stable airmass to develop on
Thursday and persist through Saturday. Mostly clear skies, lower
humidity values, and a larger diurnal range can be expected.

Precipitable water values will be well below average at an inch or
less through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, an increase
in onshore flow should push precipitable water values up to around
1.5 inches, and this could support isolated convection south of
the i-10 corridor. The larger than average diurnal range will
allow low temperatures to dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s for
areas along and north of the i-10 corridor from Thursday night
through Saturday night. South of the i-10 corridor lows in the low
to middle 70s are forecast. Highs will warm into the lower 90s
each day, and the low humidity values should keep heat index
readings in the mid to upper 90s. Overall, these are pleasant
conditions for late august.

A weak inverted trough axis should slide into the area on Sunday,
and a pool of deeper tropical moisture will accompany this trough.

Precipitable water values should rise to around 2 inches by
Sunday afternoon, and this will support more typical shower and
thunderstorm development. Pop values are forecast to be in the 30
to 40 percent range, and temperatures will be near average.

Overall, a return to more typical summer weather is expected for
the beginning of september.

Aviation A low pressure system passing over the terminals
through tomorrow morning will keep lower ceilings and light to
moderate rain with some embedded thunderstorms in the forecast at
all of the terminals through tomorrow morning. Ceilings should
generally range from 1000 to 2000 feet resulting MVFR and fuel
alternate conditions through the evening hours. Visibilities are
expected to range from 3 to 5 miles as the light to moderate rain
persists. However, model guidance is indicating a band of
thunderstorms potentially affecting kmsy, knew, kasd, and khdc
between 00z and 03z. Have decided to include a tempo group over
this time period at these terminals with ifr visibility
restrictions. At kbtr, khdc, and kmcb prevailing ifr ceilings
between 500 and 1000 feet will be possible between 03z and 15z
tonight as the shield of rain passes through. Conditions should
begin to improve back into MVFR range at these terminals after 15z
tomorrow as the rain shield pulls to the east.VFR conditions
should begin to develop at all of the terminals between 18z and
21z tomorrow outside of the convective threat.

Marine A brief period of stronger winds may develop over the
western waters late tonight into tomorrow morning as a low
pressure system slides through the region. Southerly winds of
around 15 knots will be possible for a few hours. Otherwise,
prevailing onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots is expected through
Tuesday along with seas of 1 to 3 feet. A cold front will pass
through the waters on Wednesday, and winds will turn more
westerly and then northwesterly through the day. Wednesday night
through Friday will see northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots develop
after the front pushes further into the gulf, and seas of 1 to 3
feet will continue to be possible.

Decision support
Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall. Flash
flood watch.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 71 85 73 91 70 70 20 50
btr 74 88 76 92 60 70 20 40
asd 72 86 74 91 90 80 20 50
msy 76 87 77 91 90 70 20 50
gpt 74 84 76 89 90 90 30 50
pql 73 84 74 90 70 90 40 40

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Flash flood watch through Monday morning for laz036-037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Flash flood watch from 7 pm cdt this evening through Monday
morning for msz069>071-077-080.

Gm... None.

Pg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 21 mi59 min S 4.1 G 7 78°F 86°F1011 hPa (-1.0)
FREL1 24 mi65 min SSW 6 G 8 77°F 1010.8 hPa
CARL1 28 mi59 min 87°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 39 mi59 min S 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 87°F1012.1 hPa (-1.0)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 40 mi59 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 86°F1012.2 hPa (-0.9)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 41 mi59 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 77°F 83°F1011.8 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi2.1 hrsN 09.00 miLight Rain78°F75°F90%1011.9 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA20 mi2.1 hrsSSE 68.00 miOvercast79°F75°F90%1011.4 hPa
Hammond, Hammond Municipal Airport, LA22 mi2.7 hrsS 410.00 miOvercast73°F73°F100%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm----CalmE5--S5----S3SW11
G16
SW3SW6SW8SW4E4CalmS4S5S4--Calm--Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE3NE33N4NE5SE6SE9S10--4N3N5N3----CalmCalm--
2 days ago--Calm--CalmS3--NE3--3SE5SW5--S7SW5S5--SW3CalmCalm--------Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:54 AM CDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.40.60.70.911.21.31.41.51.51.51.41.31.210.80.60.40.30.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:12 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:14 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.70.80.91.11.21.31.31.41.41.31.21.10.90.70.50.30.20.1000.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.