Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeway, TX

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Key Messages:

- Chances for showers and storms Tuesday onwards, likely continuing through the weekend into next week.

- Above normal temperatures and humid conditions continue through the week with warm days and mild nights.

Throughout much of this week, the weather pattern will be favorable for rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout South Central Texas, aided by the persistent presence of moist air characterized by PWATs at or above the 90th percentile of the climatological distribution (around 1.5 inches) and a southwesterly flow pattern aloft that puts our region in position to encounter shortwave disturbances along a diffuse jet. Conditional instability associated with the moist airmass and occasional upticks in shear will also support some occasionally stronger to possibly severe storms, with moist atmospheric profiles conducive to locally heavy rains and perhaps minor flooding especially if storms become organized or retread over wet soils. Commensurate with that possibility, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a level 1 of 4 risk for flash flooding for parts of our region Tuesday through at least Friday morning. The steady resupplying of Gulf air will likely keep temperatures warm throughout the week, with highs generally in the 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

By Tuesday, deep Gulf moisture will have spread across our area and should remain in place for the remainder of the week as broad troughing over the western US helps to maintain steady southerly flow. Isolated to scattered light showers are possible Tuesday morning and afternoon, beginning over the Coastal Plains and spreading inland. A shortwave arriving Tuesday evening may cause an uptick in this activity, in addition to potentially triggering showers and storms along the dry line to our west which may enter our region late Tuesday into early Wednesday. These later storms may have some isolated severe potential. While forcing is slightly decreased Wednesday, we could see scattered showers concentrated along residual outflow boundaries from earlier storms. The arrival of another shortwave late Thursday into early Friday provides another possible round of showers and storms.

Medium range models continue to show wider disagreement entering the weekend as the recurring rain chances introduce deviations in the evolution the upper air pattern that grow with time. Previous runs of the GFS depicted a front clearing out some of the Gulf airmass on Saturday, which seemed unlikely given the continued troughing over the western US. It has since trended away from that solution, and in general this humid pattern looks to persist through the weekend with further rounds of rain possible.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR flying conditions are expected tonight through Monday evening.
The exception being near the Coastal Plains where ISOLD SHRA/TSRA may result in briefly lower CIGs /VSBYs. Light winds at 7 KTs or less prevail. Beyond this forecast for Monday night into early Tuesday, southeasterly flow brings lower level moisture with a return of MVFR/IFR CIGs and possible lower VSBYs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 58 88 66 86 / 0 0 10 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 55 88 65 88 / 0 0 10 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 57 90 66 88 / 0 0 10 60 Burnet Muni Airport 55 86 64 84 / 0 0 10 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 59 92 71 89 / 0 0 10 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 54 86 64 88 / 0 0 10 40 Hondo Muni Airport 55 89 66 88 / 0 0 10 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 56 88 65 88 / 0 0 10 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 88 67 86 / 20 10 10 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 60 Stinson Muni Airport 61 90 69 89 / 0 0 10 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.