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FXUS64 KEWX 102330 CCA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 530 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The main concern in the short term portion of the forecast will be cold overnight low temperatures, likely resulting in a freeze for a good portion of south central Texas. The setup tonight remains mostly favorable for good radiational cooling conditions as we will see plenty of dry air with dewpoints in the teens to lower 20s. In addition, skies are expected to remain clear except for the possibility of some thin cirrus grazing north and central Texas. The biggest uncertainty in the equation for radiational cooling will be the winds. We will see surface high pressure slowly move eastward overnight as lee-side troughing remains intact over the plains of eastern CO/NM. This will aid in the return of southerly winds after Midnight, with the winds expected to first develop over the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Farther east, winds should be lighter near the center of the surface high pressure.
Forecast soundings across portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains show winds decoupling with a strong, but shallow surface-based inversion setting up. Just above the inversion, south-southwest winds will be on the increase overnight and any mechanical mixing of these winds would mix the boundary layer and disrupt the surface-based inversion. Our current thoughts are we will see enough cooling to result in a freeze across a good portion of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains to warrant a Freeze Warning for early Monday morning. While not all areas will see a freeze (Metro areas of Austin and San Antonio likely to remain just above freezing), a freeze is expected in areas where winds remain light through the overnight hours.

Dry weather continues into Monday as high temperatures warm to near normal, with 60s expected for most areas. Monday night lows will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s as cloud cover gradually increases.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Atmospheric moisture will increase quickly through the day on Tuesday as surface high pressure pushes off to our east and an area of low pressure begins to develop to our west in response to an upper low moving into the southwestern CONUS. As early as Wednesday morning, shower activity will begin to develop across western portions of the CWA as upper level forcing begins to increase. Over the last couple of days, model guidance has come into much better agreement regarding the track of this upper low, showing a continued east-southeasterly progression into Saturday when the low is progged to be sitting over the southern half of Texas. As a result, precipitation chances will increase across the western half of the CWA Wednesday into Thursday, before beginning to push east across the region Friday into Saturday. Due to the widespread cloud cover and rain, the temperature trend will be to cool slightly each day through this period, with highs generally in the 50s and 60s. This will greatly limit instability, but the upper low may be able to generate enough on its own for a few rumbles of thunder. Forecast QPF amounts have trended upwards across the region, with the NBM showing 50-75% probabilities for 72-hour QPF amounts to reach 1 inch across much of south-central Texas ending at 12z Saturday morning.
This is generally in line with the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC ensemble guidance as well, with the CMC continuing to be on the higher end.
From Saturday onwards model solutions begin to diverge, but the expectation is for dry conditions behind the departing low with near to slightly below normal temperatures.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR conditions continue underneath sky clear conditions. Winds become light and variable starting this evening and will persist through the overnight across the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT and KSSF). For KDRT, a slight east-southeasterly wind establishes by early Monday morning. The daytime on Monday will feature south to southeasterly winds of 5 to 10 knots at all the area TAF sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 35 64 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 29 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 32 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 33 65 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 35 67 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 30 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 33 64 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 29 64 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 31 63 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 35 63 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 36 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for Atascosa-Bandera- Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio- Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Lee- Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala.

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