Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeway, TX
April 19, 2025 4:31 PM CDT (21:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:57 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 12:33 AM Moonset 10:28 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeway, TX
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Area Discussion for Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 191954 AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 254 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Key Messages:
- There is a Level 1 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early Easter Morning for areas generally along and west of the I-35 Corridor.
Current radar trends show some scattered convection ongoing along and just east of the I-35 corridor. This activity is not rooted in the boundary layer, thus we are seeing fairly low 0.5 degree reflectivity values on area radars, but are noting a decent amount of cloud to ground lightning strikes.
For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours, the focus for stronger convection will shift into the southern Edwards Plateau, portions of the Rio Grande plains and western Hill Country.
The latest SPC mesoanalysis places an axis of higher CAPE in this region, with storms already developing farther north into west Texas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Llano and Val Verde counties until 10 PM. The hi- res models generally agree in showing convection developing across northern Edwards and Val Verde county where a level 3 of 5 risk for severe storms is noted. We will also monitor for development over the Serranias del Burro mountains west of Del Rio given strong surface heating. Large to very large hail and damaging winds are the main severe weather threats. As we head into the late evening and overnight hours, a Pacific front and upper level shortwave will likely result in a line of thunderstorms across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Models continue to show the strongest convection will likely occur over the mentioned areas, with large hail and damaging winds being the main severe weather concerns. This line of convection is expected to move into the I-35 corridor around sunrise Easter Sunday. A weakening trend is likely, but the I-35 corridor still remains in a level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms Sunday morning. Most of the convection is expected to shift east of the I-35 corridor Sunday afternoon as the frontal boundary slows while approaching the coastal plains. We will keep a low chance for showers and storms in the forecast through Sunday night in the coastal plains with the front in this region.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Key Messages:
- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances middle to late next week.
- Above average warmth and increasingly humid conditions next week.
A lack of strong offshore flow in the wake of Sunday's front favors keeping the front draped over the Texas Coastal Plain on Monday.
This will support lingering chances for showers and isolated thunder over the Coastal Plains along the stalling front. The rest of South Central Texas will likely see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as a dry mountain airmass briefly settles over our area. Highs Monday are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for most, with temperatures above 90 for sunny locations along the Rio Grande.
This window of drier conditions will be short lived as pressure falls over the Rockies causes a resurgence of southerly flow Monday night onwards, causing the the front to regress northward and reintroduce humid Gulf air across South Central Texas. This moist airmass will help prime our area for daily chances for rain and thunderstorms, in addition to maintaining warm daily high and low temperatures. The maintenance of high PWATs (around the 90th percentile of the climatological distribution) and adequate conditional instability will also support the potential for locally heavy rains and stronger organized thunderstorms. Given the substantial depth of moisture up to about 700 mb, streamer showers and drizzle are possible Tuesday morning as modest isentropic lift and warm advection spread inland. As broad troughing and southwesterly flow establishes over northern Mexico and the southwestern CONUS, periods of more pronounced shower and storm activity are possible with any passerby disturbance. Models are in good consensus that a weak shortwave will amplify over West Texas late Tuesday. That could result in a flare up of isolated to scattered dry line showers which track eastward into our region, persisting within the moist Gulf air late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible throughout the second half of the week as broad troughing becomes slightly more pronounced over the western US, providing more opportunities for shortwaves to set off showers and storms in our area. Late Thursday into early Friday could be another favored window for storm development with hints of a stronger shortwave passing around that time. Towards the weekend, divergence between the models increases, but the general theme of southwesterly mid-level flow over our area with troughing over the western US seems likely to be maintained through at least the weekend.
While the pattern may slightly favor heavier rains western and northern areas closer to the dry line and downstream of persistent moisture advection, ensembles suggest decently widespread coverage of rainfall totals across South Central Texas with relatively uniform accumulations. Of course, the actual distribution will be highly sensitive to the development and evolution of any organized convective systems which deterministic guidance have been hinting at for next week. There is medium to high confidence of widespread totals of at least 1 inch of accumulated rainfall this weekend through next week, with localized higher amounts above 2 inches possible within the stronger storm tracks. Cloud cover and rains will soften the warmth slightly throughout the week, but highs will likely remain in the 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
The overall aviation forecast is on track with the main challenge over the next few hours being convection chances along I-35. We will continue to mention PROB30 groups for the I-35 corridor through 24Z given current radar trends and breaks in the cloud cover allowing for daytime heating to gin up some convection. For the late evening hours, the focus for convection is expected to shift farther west to near DRT and we will include a TEMPO group between 04-07Z for TSRA. A line of storms is then expected to develop over the Hill Country and move into the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning and we will continue to mention PROB30 groups for TSRA along I-35 between 11-15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 66 82 58 86 / 40 70 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 81 55 87 / 30 70 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 82 56 86 / 30 70 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 61 80 52 85 / 70 60 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 86 59 91 / 80 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 64 81 52 87 / 50 70 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 84 56 86 / 60 50 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 81 55 86 / 20 70 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 82 61 84 / 10 60 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 82 59 86 / 40 60 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 69 83 60 86 / 30 60 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 254 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Key Messages:
- There is a Level 1 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early Easter Morning for areas generally along and west of the I-35 Corridor.
Current radar trends show some scattered convection ongoing along and just east of the I-35 corridor. This activity is not rooted in the boundary layer, thus we are seeing fairly low 0.5 degree reflectivity values on area radars, but are noting a decent amount of cloud to ground lightning strikes.
For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours, the focus for stronger convection will shift into the southern Edwards Plateau, portions of the Rio Grande plains and western Hill Country.
The latest SPC mesoanalysis places an axis of higher CAPE in this region, with storms already developing farther north into west Texas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Llano and Val Verde counties until 10 PM. The hi- res models generally agree in showing convection developing across northern Edwards and Val Verde county where a level 3 of 5 risk for severe storms is noted. We will also monitor for development over the Serranias del Burro mountains west of Del Rio given strong surface heating. Large to very large hail and damaging winds are the main severe weather threats. As we head into the late evening and overnight hours, a Pacific front and upper level shortwave will likely result in a line of thunderstorms across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Models continue to show the strongest convection will likely occur over the mentioned areas, with large hail and damaging winds being the main severe weather concerns. This line of convection is expected to move into the I-35 corridor around sunrise Easter Sunday. A weakening trend is likely, but the I-35 corridor still remains in a level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms Sunday morning. Most of the convection is expected to shift east of the I-35 corridor Sunday afternoon as the frontal boundary slows while approaching the coastal plains. We will keep a low chance for showers and storms in the forecast through Sunday night in the coastal plains with the front in this region.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Key Messages:
- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances middle to late next week.
- Above average warmth and increasingly humid conditions next week.
A lack of strong offshore flow in the wake of Sunday's front favors keeping the front draped over the Texas Coastal Plain on Monday.
This will support lingering chances for showers and isolated thunder over the Coastal Plains along the stalling front. The rest of South Central Texas will likely see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as a dry mountain airmass briefly settles over our area. Highs Monday are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for most, with temperatures above 90 for sunny locations along the Rio Grande.
This window of drier conditions will be short lived as pressure falls over the Rockies causes a resurgence of southerly flow Monday night onwards, causing the the front to regress northward and reintroduce humid Gulf air across South Central Texas. This moist airmass will help prime our area for daily chances for rain and thunderstorms, in addition to maintaining warm daily high and low temperatures. The maintenance of high PWATs (around the 90th percentile of the climatological distribution) and adequate conditional instability will also support the potential for locally heavy rains and stronger organized thunderstorms. Given the substantial depth of moisture up to about 700 mb, streamer showers and drizzle are possible Tuesday morning as modest isentropic lift and warm advection spread inland. As broad troughing and southwesterly flow establishes over northern Mexico and the southwestern CONUS, periods of more pronounced shower and storm activity are possible with any passerby disturbance. Models are in good consensus that a weak shortwave will amplify over West Texas late Tuesday. That could result in a flare up of isolated to scattered dry line showers which track eastward into our region, persisting within the moist Gulf air late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible throughout the second half of the week as broad troughing becomes slightly more pronounced over the western US, providing more opportunities for shortwaves to set off showers and storms in our area. Late Thursday into early Friday could be another favored window for storm development with hints of a stronger shortwave passing around that time. Towards the weekend, divergence between the models increases, but the general theme of southwesterly mid-level flow over our area with troughing over the western US seems likely to be maintained through at least the weekend.
While the pattern may slightly favor heavier rains western and northern areas closer to the dry line and downstream of persistent moisture advection, ensembles suggest decently widespread coverage of rainfall totals across South Central Texas with relatively uniform accumulations. Of course, the actual distribution will be highly sensitive to the development and evolution of any organized convective systems which deterministic guidance have been hinting at for next week. There is medium to high confidence of widespread totals of at least 1 inch of accumulated rainfall this weekend through next week, with localized higher amounts above 2 inches possible within the stronger storm tracks. Cloud cover and rains will soften the warmth slightly throughout the week, but highs will likely remain in the 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025
The overall aviation forecast is on track with the main challenge over the next few hours being convection chances along I-35. We will continue to mention PROB30 groups for the I-35 corridor through 24Z given current radar trends and breaks in the cloud cover allowing for daytime heating to gin up some convection. For the late evening hours, the focus for convection is expected to shift farther west to near DRT and we will include a TEMPO group between 04-07Z for TSRA. A line of storms is then expected to develop over the Hill Country and move into the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning and we will continue to mention PROB30 groups for TSRA along I-35 between 11-15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 66 82 58 86 / 40 70 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 81 55 87 / 30 70 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 82 56 86 / 30 70 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 61 80 52 85 / 70 60 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 86 59 91 / 80 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 64 81 52 87 / 50 70 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 84 56 86 / 60 50 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 81 55 86 / 20 70 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 82 61 84 / 10 60 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 82 59 86 / 40 60 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 69 83 60 86 / 30 60 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KRYW
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KRYW
Wind History Graph: RYW
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains
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