Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 10:07 PM   Moonset 7:21 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 262330 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 630 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Point

-Isolated strong to severe storms possible Saturday night with large hail and damaging winds possible.

An upper level trough covers the western half of the country. Strong southeasterly flow in the boundary layer is keeping a warm, moist airmass in place over South Central Texas. Temperatures this afternoon range from the middle 70s to near 90 and dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A dryline is just moving into Val Verde County. The upper trough will move slowly toward the east during this period. The dryline will shift back toward the west tonight.
This will keep our weather dry tonight. With strong southeasterly flow continuing skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will be warm. Lows Saturday will be mostly n the 70s. The dryline will move back eastward again during the day Saturday reaching our western area by late afternoon. This will only provide enough lift for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area will stay dry. Tomorrow night a shortwave trough will move through the upper pattern and push the dryline farther east. This will bring good chances for showers and thunderstorm. POPs will increase over the northwest during the evening and spread south and east after midnight. The surface boundary will move into a warm, moist airmass with high CAPE and moderate deep layer vertical shear. Strong to sever storms will be possible. The greatest threat will be large hail with steep mid- level lapse rates, but damaging winds gusts and tornadoes are also possible. The best timing looks like late evening out west, after midnight I-35, and early Sunday morning Coastal Plains.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Incoming 12Z model data continues to indicate a line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will be moving across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau early Sunday morning. The cold front is not expected to make much eastward progress during the daytime hours on Sunday and as convection moves ahead of the front, a gradual weakening trend is expected as activity moves into the I-35 corridor. With the convection expected to weaken, the threat for severe weather is expected to gradually decrease through Sunday morning. For now, it appears the better chance for strong to severe storms will remain confined to areas west of the I-35 corridor, where the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
for severe storms. Farther east for our counties along the I-35 corridor, the risk drops into the Marginal category (Level 1 of 5).
All modes of severe weather will be possible, including hail, high winds and tornadoes. For the afternoon hours, the higher rain chances will shift eastward, mainly east of the I-35/I-37 corridors. Low- level moisture surges back westward Sunday night, with a continued low chance for showers and storms from I-35 eastward.

Some weak upper disturbances moving in from the southwest continue on Monday and Tuesday. We will keep a fairly low chance (20-40%) for rain in the forecast, mainly for the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Strong to severe storms don't appear favored at this time, but given the time of year, we will continue to monitor the setup. A stronger upper level system is expected to move in late Wednesday or early Thursday and this may help boost the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity. The medium range operational models continue to show some agreement in showing a fairly strong front moving in from the north sometime early Friday. If models remain in good agreement, we will need to increase our rain chances for Friday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will start the period, although MVFR ceilings will once again develop overnight into Saturday morning. Southerly to southeasterly wind will continue through the period, with a few gusts to 25 knots possible through morning. Stronger gusts will be seen mid-morning into the afternoon across the eastern two-thirds of the area, with all of South Central Texas seeing gusty conditions by Saturday evening. There is a small chance for showers or thunderstorms on Saturday, but the probability is too low to include in the TAFs. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area are seen after 06Z Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 86 69 80 / 10 20 60 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 85 68 79 / 10 20 50 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 87 70 82 / 10 10 40 60 Burnet Muni Airport 70 82 66 79 / 10 30 80 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 98 68 95 / 10 10 50 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 84 67 79 / 10 30 70 70 Hondo Muni Airport 71 90 67 86 / 10 20 60 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 86 68 80 / 10 10 40 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 85 73 82 / 10 10 20 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 86 69 82 / 10 10 50 60 Stinson Muni Airport 73 88 70 83 / 10 10 40 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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