Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday July 2, 2020 3:27 AM CDT (08:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:42PMMoonset 3:31AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 1113 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 1 2020
Rest of tonight..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..Winds light becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1113 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 1 2020
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow will persist into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible mainly near the shore through tonight then higher rain chances are expected Thursday through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, AL
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location: 30.36, -87.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 020503 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

AVIATION. 06Z issuance . Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the 24 hour period. During afternoon hours, some of these storms could become capable of producing strong, erratic wind gusts along with frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Expect locally lower cigs/vis in and around these storms. Outside of convection, VFR conditions prevail and winds remain generally light out of the west to northwest. /49

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 1108 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/ . The overall pattern remains relatively unchanged and thus, we can expect to see more of the same through the next 24-36 hours. At this time, a decaying MCS is advancing southeastward across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. This feature will bringing showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to areas generally along and west of I-65 before it begins to dissipate. Expect a brief lull in activity following this wave, then redevelopment of showers and storms during early morning hours right along the coast that will subsequently push out over the northern Gulf by mid-morning. Yet another complex of showers and thunderstorms moves into the area from the north later Thursday morning and afternoon. Beyond that, this "wave after wave" action complicates forecasting particular timing and location of thunderstorms, as rain chances through the remainder of the period will depend on how much and where the boundary layer is able to recover between each round. In general, most folks in the area can expect to see several rounds of thunderstorms now through Friday, so left decent PoPs (60-80%) over much of the area during that time. During peak heating hours, some of these storms could grow strong enough to produce localized damaging wind gusts, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy downpours.

Temperatures don't change much through the period, reaching the upper 80s to around 90 each afternoon and staying in the 70s during overnight hours. Could see heat indices climb over 100 degrees for some each afternoon, particularly along the coast on Thursday and inland on Friday. /49

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/ . An upper level trough over the northeastern CONUS will continue to dig south, with a section of this trough digging from northeast to southwest over the southeastern CONUS through late week. A slow- moving surface front will also progress southward over the southeastern CONUS through Saturday morning before stalling near the northern Gulf coast through Saturday night. The aforementioned pattern will lead to continued unsettled and wet weather through the short term period, albeit still somewhat diurnal. Scattered showers and storms are likely during the overnight hours, with increasing chances during the afternoon each day. PWATs are shown to be just under 2 inches to around 2.3 inches through Saturday night, leading to forecast storm total rainfall ranging from 0.50-1.5 inches. Thus, The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked southeast Mississippi, southwest and south-central Alabama, as well as the western Florida Panhandle in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday. In addition, MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg in the afternoon and between 500-800 J/kg during the nighttime will keep the potential for embedded thunderstorms through the short term as well.

Warm and muggy conditions will comprise the short term, with high temperatures Friday and Saturday afternoons a touch cooler, in the mid to upper 80s, due to cloud cover. Although, a few spots could reach 90 degrees Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, overnight lows Thursday night through Saturday night will continue to be warm. Temperatures are expected to only dip into the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 70s south. Lastly, there is a LOW RISK of rip currents through Saturday night. /26

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . An upper level low is expected to form over the southeastern CONUS and persist through much of the extended term. Meanwhile, upper level high pressure will build over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into midweek next week. At the surface, the front that stalled close to the northern Gulf coast will weaken as low pressure forms over the Deep South. This low will eventually progress over South Carolina by Tuesday morning and then move off over the Atlantic by midweek. By this time, high pressure is expected to build over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Model PWATs are shown to be right around 2 inches to about 2.3 inches through much of extended period, with exception of Tuesday where values are shown to be less (around 1.5-1.8 inches). Thus, the unsettled and wet pattern will persist through early next week. However, with PWATs decreasing into midweek, chances for showers and storms could start to decrease by this time. This will continue to be monitored.

Continued warm and muggy conditions are expected through midweek next week. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s Sunday through Tuesday afternoons, with some areas along and south of I-10 potentially reaching 90 degrees by Wednesday afternoon. Lows Sunday through Tuesday nights will likely be in the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 70s south. /26

MARINE . No impacts are forecast except winds and waves higher near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 6 mi57 min 80°F 1012.9 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 12 mi102 min 75°F 1013 hPa75°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 12 mi87 min SSW 11 80°F 1012.9 hPa (-3.0)
WBYA1 12 mi57 min 85°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 21 mi57 min S 2.9 G 7 80°F 87°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 21 mi37 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 84°F1 ft1013.1 hPa75°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 22 mi117 min E 1.9 79°F 1012.2 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi57 min SSW 11 G 12 81°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 26 mi87 min S 8.9 G 9.9 80°F 1013.1 hPa (-2.2)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 28 mi57 min S 8.9 80°F 1012.5 hPa
MBPA1 28 mi57 min 75°F 73°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 31 mi57 min SW 2.9 G 7 86°F
PTOA1 31 mi57 min 76°F 71°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 33 mi87 min SW 6 -40°F 1013.5 hPa (-2.0)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 33 mi87 min 1012.3 hPa (-3.6)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 43 mi102 min SSW 5.1 77°F 1014 hPa74°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 49 mi57 min SW 8.9 G 11 81°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL6 mi32 minSSW 610.00 miFair77°F73°F89%1012.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi31 minSW 510.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1012.3 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL16 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1012.9 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL23 mi34 minSW 510.00 miFair76°F69°F79%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJKA

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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W9NE5NE6NE4N9CalmSW7W9S7SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:31 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM CDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:11 PM CDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.70.91.11.31.61.81.9221.91.71.51.20.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:32 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:56 AM CDT     2.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:42 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:37 PM CDT     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:43 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:52 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.61.82221.81.410.4-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.8-2.1-2.3-2.4-2.2-1.9-1.5-1-0.50.10.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.