Tuesday, January26, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:21PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 9:00 PM CST (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:24PMMoonset 6:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 310 Pm Cst Tue Jan 26 2021
.dense fog advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Wednesday...
Tonight..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of dense fog after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest 18 to 23 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds 18 to 23 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..North winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast. Waves less than 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Friday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 310 Pm Cst Tue Jan 26 2021
Synopsis..Light to at times moderate onshore flow tonight along with dense fog is expected into Wednesday. A cold front will move across area waters later Wednesday through Wednesday night, mixing out the fog, but bringing moderate to strong offshore flow. Winds will ease and shift to onshore as surface high pressure passes north of the area, remaining light to moderate through most of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, AL
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location: 30.36, -87.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 270011 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 611 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

AVIATION. 00Z issuance . MVFR ceilings will lower tonight with -SHRA and isolated TSRA. In addition, dense fog can be expected with IFR/LIFR visibilities possible. Ceilings and visbys improve during the afternoon on Wednesday. /13

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 357 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/ . Deep southwesterly zonal flow over the Southeastern third of the Conus is present. The latest SPC analysis show MUCapes 1000-1500J/KG south of I-65 at this time (though this will increase if any breaks in the overcast skies occurs) with a band of Effective Bulk Shear values of 50-60 knots with a deep generally linear wind profile. SPC is continuing to place the area along and southeast of I-65 in a Marginal Risk of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, with wind damage the primary threat. With surface boundaries from the previous day's convection, a tornado can not be ruled out.

Tonight through Wednesday, another upper level shortwave trough moving over the Southern Plains will swing east-northeast to over the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys. The stalled cold front over the forecast shifts south of the coast in response, along with any residual showers and thunderstorms. Tonight, with onshore flow south of I-65 in the low to mid 70s flowing over water temperatures in the low to mid 60s south of the coast, dense fog formation is a strong possibility. The expected convection form along and south of the front will help to temper the denser fog formation, though a dense fog advisory for marine portions and coastal areas of the forecast area remains a strong possibility tonight into Wednesday morning, before the southeastward moving cold front ushers in a drier airmass over the forecast area.

For temperatures tonight, low temperatures in the 50s northwest of I-65 are expected in the cooler air that has moved southeast over the forecast area, low to mid 60s southeast of I-65, south of the front. Wednesday, high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s are expected northwest of I-65, low to mid 70s southeast. With the push of cooler air Wednesday mainly Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, along with some afternoon clearing, feel this temperatures are representative. The some solutions are advertising cooler air pushing south across the forecast area earlier than the other solutions, so did bump resultant average high temperatures down a bit to reflect. /16

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/ . The cold front will be moving southeast of our forecast area at the beginning of the short term period, with cooler and drier high pressure building in from the west. The upper shortwave to our north will continue to move eastward, with very dry northwesterly flow aloft as an upper ridge will be just to the west of our area. A large surface high pressure ridge extending from south central Canada to northeast Mexico will move eastward, with the southern axis moving across the our area late Thursday night through Friday afternoon, so no precipitation is forecast through the short term. Temperatures will be trending much colder, with lows Wednesday night expected to range from the low to mid 30s inland to the upper 30s and lower 40s near the coast. On Thursday highs across the entire area should be in the low to mid 50s. Coldest temperatures will come Thursday night, with a light freeze expected for most of the area. Lows north of the I-10 corridor will generally be in the 30-32 degree range, but a few upper 20s possible northwest of I-65 over interior southwest Alabama extending over into interior southeast Mississippi. South of I-10 down to the coast, look for temperatures to fall into the mid 30s with upper 30s at the beaches. Temperatures trend warmer Friday, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. /22

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/ . Upper level ridging will shift eastward over the region Saturday morning, while an upper shortwave trough over the Western High Plains progress over the central and southern Plains. There still remains model differences in regards to timing with this feature. The GFS is a bit faster advancing the trough across the Mississippi River Saturday night which then decelerates over the eastern conus through Sunday. The slower ECMWF holds off moving the shortwave trough across the Mississippi River until late Sunday afternoon, and then over the eastern conus through Monday night. The same is reflected at the surface with the progression of the low pressure area from the southern Great Plains toward the east-northeast, with the ECMWF lagging behind the GFS by about 12 hours.

For sensible weather, expecting no rain chances for the local area through much of the day on Saturday. The bulk of the rain, 40-50% Pops, will come Saturday night through Sunday afternoon as the cold front approaches from the west. At this time, with the better upper level dynamics well to our north as well as model guidance showing little to no instability, no thunderstorms are forecast with this system for the local area. Rain chances will then decrease Sunday night as the front passes well to the southeast. No rain is expected through the remainder of the extended term as high pressure and northwest flow take hold.

High temperatures will increase over the weekend, with mid 60s on Saturday increasing into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. Highs Monday and Tuesday will then dip back into the upper 50s to lower 60s once again as a result of cold air advection from high pressure building in behind the cold front. Low temperatures will follow a similar pattern, starting in the 50s Saturday night, lowering into the 40s Sunday night, and into the mid 30s to lower 40s Monday night. /22

MARINE . A cold front will move south across area waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Light to at time moderate onshore flow is expected tonight into Wednesday, with moderate to strong offshore flow following the frontal passage. Warmer air flowing over cooler nearshore waters will allow for dense fog formation over near shore zones tonight before drier air moving south over the area waters later Wednesday through Wednesday night mixes the fog out. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most coastal zones for late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Winds are expected to ease during the day Thursday, but are expected to remain moderate to occasionally strong through Thursday night, mainly over open Gulf waters. Winds will shift to onshore Friday as surface high pressure passes north of area waters, and remain light to occasionally moderate through most of Sunday before another cold front moves over area waters, bringing moderate to strong offshore flow for the beginning of the week. /16

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for ALZ265- 266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ202- 204-206.

MS . None. GM . Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>636-650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to noon CST Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 12 mi450 min ENE 8 70°F 1012.9 hPa
WBYA1 12 mi420 min 68°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 21 mi400 min 9.7 G 14 62°F 62°F1012.9 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 21 mi420 min W 1 G 2.9 67°F 61°F1012.7 hPa (-1.7)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 22 mi450 min NW 11 66°F 1012.2 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi420 min NE 6 G 7 64°F 1012.3 hPa (-1.7)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 26 mi420 min NNE 6 G 6 64°F 1012.4 hPa (-1.6)
MBPA1 28 mi420 min 71°F 56°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 31 mi420 min NE 5.1 G 8 71°F 62°F1011.7 hPa (-1.8)
PTOA1 31 mi420 min 72°F 55°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 33 mi420 min 71°F 56°F1012.5 hPa (-1.8)
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 49 mi420 min E 8.9 G 12 64°F 1012.3 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL6 mi65 minENE 310.00 miOvercast64°F60°F89%1013.5 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL16 mi65 minN 0 miOvercast63°F59°F88%1013.5 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL23 mi67 minENE 410.00 miOvercast66°F63°F90%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJKA

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
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Tue -- 05:07 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM CST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:24 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:22 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:04 PM CST     1.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.20.50.70.91.11.31.51.61.61.61.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM CST     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:08 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:05 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:42 PM CST     2.14 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:24 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-1.9-2.2-2.3-2.2-2-1.6-1.1-0.6-0.10.511.41.722.12.121.81.510.5-0.1-0.7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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