Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 4:53 AM   Moonset 6:13 PM

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GMZ633 Perdido Bay-pensacola Bay System- 928 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. Patchy fog. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Friday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 928 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 060504 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1204 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions prevail to start off this forecast, but we still anticipate MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop across portions of the western FL panhandle and south central AL around or shortly after 06.08Z and then across most of the rest of the forecast area between 06.08Z-12Z. There is also potential for patchy fog formation with visibility reductions to IFR or lower thresholds across the western FL panhandle and interior portions of south central and southwest AL, mainly after 06.08Z through around 06.13-14Z Monday morning. VFR should then prevail through the remainder of the forecast period with southerly winds increasing to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts over 20 kt late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. /21

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 658 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024/

New AVIATION

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across most of the region through much of the evening underneath scattered to broken mid level cloud decks and a few transient lower level stratocumulus clouds. We do anticipate MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop across portions of the western FL panhandle and south central AL around or shortly after 06.06Z and then across most of the rest of the forecast area between 06.08Z-12Z. There is also potential for patchy fog formation with visibility reductions to IFR or lower thresholds across the western FL panhandle and interior portions of south central and southwest AL, mainly after 06.06Z through around 06.13-14Z Monday morning. VFR should then prevail through the remainder of the forecast period with southerly winds increasing to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts over 20 kt late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across inland areas through late this afternoon then fade away after sunset.
Another round of low clouds and patchy fog is possible tonight which will clear around daybreak on Monday. A weak shortwave will pass to our northwest on Monday, providing enough lift for more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest coverage will be northwest of I-65 where the greater lift will be.
Outside of isolated to scattered convection, it will remain warm with highs on Monday in the mid and upper 80s inland to low to mid 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Weak upper level ridging will begin to build into the Gulf Coast on Tuesday while a persistent onshore flow continues to advect moisture into the region. This pattern will result in another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly for interior areas on Tuesday. Any convection that develops should generally follow a diurnal pattern with activity tapering off through the evening. By Wednesday, the upper level ridging becomes more defined and the associated subsidence will keep conditions dry through the day. Temperatures will be on the rise through the middle of the week with highs reaching into the middle and upper 80s on Tuesday and the upper 80s and lower 90s on Wednesday afternoon. These temperatures combined with the humid conditions will allow heat index values to rise into the 93-98 degree range on Wednesday so it will feel even warmer than the ambient temperature. Overnight lows will also be rather warm. Lows Monday night will fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s with temperatures lingering in the lower 70s for most locations on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. /14

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)

The pattern will begin to change towards the end of the week as a late season cold front approaches and moves into the region.
Upper level ridging quickly slides east on Thursday as a longwave trough pushes out of the North Central states and swings over the eastern US on Friday. This will result in zonal flow with a few embedded impulses becoming more northwesterly as the base of the trough moves over the Southeast on Friday. Down at the surface, a low pressure will lift northeastward across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region with it's associated cold front expected to push through the area Thursday night into Friday. Current guidance has trended a bit faster with the overall progression of this system, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. The better forcing is expected to remain to our north, but given that there will be plenty of instability and increasing shear across the area, we could see a few strong to perhaps severe storms during the Thursday evening into Friday timeframe with gusty winds and hail being the main concerns. Drier and cooler conditions are anticipated Friday night behind the front. As we head into the weekend, the deterministic guidance begins to diverge with regards to the location frontal boundary and lingering rain chances. For now, have maintained mostly dry forecast through the weekend. Temperatures will also be notably cooler with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 71 86 72 88 73 88 70 85 / 0 10 0 0 0 20 30 30 Pensacola 72 84 73 85 75 85 72 83 / 0 10 0 0 0 20 30 40 Destin 73 82 74 83 76 84 73 82 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 20 40 Evergreen 67 89 69 90 71 90 67 82 / 0 20 0 10 0 40 40 50 Waynesboro 68 89 70 92 71 90 65 82 / 0 30 0 0 10 40 50 30 Camden 67 89 70 91 70 88 65 80 / 0 30 0 10 10 50 50 40 Crestview 67 87 68 89 70 89 67 85 / 0 10 0 0 0 20 30 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Bon Secour
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Sun -- 03:49 AM CDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:20 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:35 AM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:31 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:00 PM CDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Sun -- 12:59 AM CDT     -0.12 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:52 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM CDT     0.15 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:33 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:04 PM CDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:32 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:25 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

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