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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 115 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186 ... Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

We have issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the area along and south of Hwy90/I-10. Storm strength has increased over the past hour or two and the environment is ripe for this to continue into the early evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the most likely threats with tornadoes also possible.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Current radar data shows a line of convection in place from the western Hill Country into portions of the I-35 corridor near Austin.
Concerns for severe storms will be on the decrease through the early morning hours as convective inhibition slowly builds. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #185 was allowed to expire at 2 AM CDT. While the threat for severe storms has temporarily eased, we are seeing some healthy rainfall rates embedded within this line with instantaneous amounts on the order of 4-5" per hour. Luckily, this line of convection is steadily moving eastward and will continue to do so through the pre-dawn hours. We are also noting some new convective development over the lower Trans Pecos region as the leading edge of a frontal boundary interacts with an outflow boundary from earlier convection.

Recent runs of the HRRR model generally capture what is unfolding on radar and the weakening of this line is expected to continue through this morning. With precipitation still ongoing across areas covered by the Flood Watch, Burnet, Lee, Llano and Williamson counties, the Watch will remain in effect until 1 PM CDT. We could still see some 1 to 2 inch amounts with a few spots up to 3 inches. Any moderate to heavy rain falling over these areas will result in quick runoff and continue to pose a flood threat. For the late morning and afternoon hours, hi-res models generally agree in showing renewed convective development along an outflow boundary. Any breaks in the cloud cover will help destabilize the atmosphere and with adequate shear, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, especially along and south of a Rocksprings to San Marcos line. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather concerns. Rain chances should begin to decrease fairly quickly with the loss of daytime heating.
Wet ground tonight along with southerly flow in the low-levels will likely lead to fog development late tonight into Monday morning.
Highs on Monday will range from the lower 80s in the Hill Country to the mid and upper 90s along the Rio Grande. We will keep a low chance for some afternoon convection across the Hill Country, but overall confidence is low at this time.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A broad area of mid and upper level low pressure remains intact across the central and high plains states through the middle of the week. Farther south into the southern plains states, west- southwesterly flow will persist as the low-level thermal ridge slowly strengthens. Four our region, this will bring about a warming trend for Tuesday through Thursday, with highs in the 90s for most areas.
The exception will be out west along the Rio Grande where some highs on Wednesday and Thursday will warm into the 100 to 105 degree range.
These higher temperatures will likely be reached as the dryline is able to mix eastward aided by 700mb westerly winds in the 20-30kt range. As we head into the latter part of the upcoming week, the upper air pattern begins to change as the medium range models show a Rex block pattern taking shape over the western CONUS with a broad trough farther east into the Great Lakes and upper Midwest. This should allow a cold front to drop southward through the plains states and eventually into south central Texas on Friday. Some notable cooling will accompany the front as highs on Friday and Saturday ease back into the upper 70s for areas generally along and north of I-10.
Elsewhere, highs will be mostly in the 80s, except near 90 along the Rio Grande on Friday. We will keep a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for most areas on Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms have formed across South Central Texas, first impacting SAT/SSF for the start of the period with thunderstorms possible at AUS around 19-23Z. Ceilings will range from MVFR to VFR through the afternoon at all sites. Storm activity should diminish early this evening with low MVFR/IFR ceilings expected to return across the entire area tonight into Monday morning. Fog may also be possible with wet grounds and light wind, but ceilings my limit any dense fog formation. VFR conditions return Monday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 86 72 91 / 20 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 86 72 91 / 20 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 72 93 / 20 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 84 70 90 / 20 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 99 74 100 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 85 71 89 / 20 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 88 70 94 / 20 20 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 87 71 92 / 20 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 86 74 90 / 20 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 87 72 92 / 20 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 88 73 94 / 20 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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