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FXUS64 KEWX 031915 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 215 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

An upper trough continues sliding to the east this afternoon. Flow over Texas has become southwesterly. The low level flow is from the east through southeast re-enforcing the warm, moist airmass over South Central Texas. So far, the cap is holding over CWA, but convection has developed to our northwest and there is an MCV to the southeast. With the very warm, moist airmass in place we expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and tonight. There is some chance for a strong to severe storm to move into western Val Verde County, but that chance is very low. The upper trough will continue moving toward the east destabilizing the atmosphere over us. Combined with the warm, moist air and strong heating during the day Wednesday this will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will be over the east where the deepest moisture will reside. Wednesday night a strong cold front will move through northwest Texas and showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front. This activity will move into our CWA from the north during the evening and spread south overnight.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A relatively deep upper trough axis will be crossing into the central CONUS early Thursday, with the southern portion of this axis in OK/TX offset to the west from the northern portion in a positively tilted manner. This axis will move across south-central TX over a cold front that should push through during the day, and scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast as a result.
These storms will drift southward Thursday and Thursday night, with high moisture content to work with. However, forecast rainfall amounts have trended downward over the past 24 to 48 hours, unfortunately. While widespread 0.2-1" rainfall amounts are likely for most areas, localized misses as well as higher totals of 2-4+" will be possible. WPC will update the Day 3 ERO today to downgrade from Slight (level 2 of 4) to Marginal (1 of 4) given the continued decrease in model QPF. The best chances for these localized higher totals are expected to be along our eastern counties from Williamson, Lee, and Bastrop south and eastward, as well as in the southern portions of the area right along the Rio Grande. Frontal timing will be nailed down a little better in subsequent forecasts, but the NAM is usually a go- to for this scenario and it pushes the leading edge into our northern Hill Country counties from Llano to Williamson in the 12-15Z time frame, meaning most of the rain should come during the daylight hours for all but our southern counties.

Some post-frontal showers/storms may linger over our southern and western areas Thursday night into Friday, but this is beginning to look less likely, especially after midnight as we lose the mid-level PVA-associated lift. This first front won't wipe out our surface moisture, but will begin to chip away as mid and upper level moisture as a continental airmass pushes in. High temperatures Thursday and Friday should be mainly in the 80s, a welcome sight, but the best news in the temperature department arrives late Friday into the weekend as surface high pressure settles in and pushes the surface moisture out to the gulf. Morning lows Friday in the mid 60s to low 70s will fall to the mid 50s to mid 60s for Saturday morning, then into the 50s areawide by Sunday morning. Better yet, highs Saturday and Sunday should be mainly in the 70s! Although we're holding onto some low-end POPs in the forecast over the weekend, it is likely to be mostly dry. It will be a beautiful weekend for those who enjoy milder weather, and these temperatures will be the coolest we've experienced since April for most locations! We expect a gradual warming trend early next week.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

We expect all terminals to be VFR by the start of this period. This statement depends on the ceiling at DRT lifting by the top of the hour. They could stay MVFR for a little while longer. There is a chance for showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, chances are too low to include in the TAFs. MVFR ceilings will develop overnight at all airports and chances for rain will increase.
Timing on any convection is uncertain. Ceilings will lift back to VFR near the end of the 24 hour period. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 75 93 72 86 / 30 50 70 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 92 72 86 / 30 50 70 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 94 75 88 / 30 50 60 70 Burnet Muni Airport 75 91 72 84 / 30 40 80 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 97 77 91 / 20 10 40 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 92 72 84 / 30 50 80 80 Hondo Muni Airport 74 93 73 88 / 20 30 50 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 94 73 87 / 30 50 60 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 89 74 85 / 30 50 50 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 93 75 87 / 30 40 60 70 Stinson Muni Airport 78 95 76 89 / 30 30 50 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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