Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Navarre Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday July 4, 2020 11:50 PM CDT (04:50 UTC) Moonrise 7:45PMMoonset 5:09AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:202007051545;;335119 Fzus54 Kmob 050345 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 1045 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 4 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-051545- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1045 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 4 2020
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers late in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1045 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow will prevail through the weekend, increasing slightly early next week. Scattered to sometimes numerous showers and storms possible through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navarre Beach, FL
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location: 30.37, -86.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 050253 AAB AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 953 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/. A weak and broad upper low over the north central Gulf coast area drifts slowly northwestward through Sunday night. An associated weak surface trof lingers near the coast through Sunday night, although may briefly lift into the interior portion of the forecast area Sunday afternoon. This pattern will allow for some relatively drier air to work into the interior portion of the area overnight from Georgia and east central Alabama while a band of abundant deep layer moisture remains in place over the remainder of the area. As the weak upper low moves slowly northwestward, the deep layer flow changes gradually and advects the abundant deep layer moisture northward into the interior portion of the area on Sunday such that precipitable water values will be 2.0-2.25 inches areawide. Shear values remain very low through the period, in fact 0-6 km bulk shear values will be less than 10 knots. A weak surface low has been present on the surface trof near the coast, and there is some potential, albeit low, that system with tropical characteristics could form within the next 48 hours within this rather weakly sheared and very moist environment. At this point, the National Hurricane Center has this potential at 10% through Monday evening, and this will be closely monitored. For the rest of tonight, expect that convection will continue to diminish and by the late night hours will have dry conditions inland while slight chance to chance pops continue near the immediate coast. MLCAPE values increase to 1500-2000 J/kg on Sunday with wet bulb zero values likely near 14-15 kft. With the weak surface trof and also the potential for the weak surface low to at least linger near the coast, this convectively favorable environment will support likely to categorical pops on Sunday. Precipitation loading could lead to a few strong storms Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Rain chances become more difficult to determine Sunday night as this is when the potential surface low development could become a bigger factor. For now, have gone with likely pops for much of the area Sunday evening then for the late night hours have kept likely pops near the coast which taper to slight chance pops further inland. Lows tonight and Sunday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Sunday will be mostly in the upper 80s with heat index values topping out near 100. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through the period. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 641 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE . Have updated to keep high pops over portions of interior southeast Mississippi and a small portion of interior southwest Alabama where the highest coverage of showers and storms will be possible early this evening. For the remainder of the area, coverage will looks to be mainly isolated at best through the evening hours. Made other minor adjustments. /29

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . Showers and thunderstorms will predominately affect portions of interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwestern Alabama early this evening. Numerous to potentially widespread showers and storms redevelop across the area on Sunday. Light and variable winds tonight become southerly 5 to 10 knots on Sunday. VFR conditions prevail through the period except for MVFR conditions with the stronger showers and storms. MVFR conditions are also possible with some patchy fog over interior areas late tonight. /29

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/ . Weak low pressure both aloft and at the surface will aid in convective development once again across the region today. Looking at radar and visible satellite, seeing a few thunderstorms ongoing over the Florida panhandle and even a few towering cu beginning to percolate over southeast MS and southwest AL at this time. With moderate instability (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and ample moisture (PWATs around 2 inches) already in place per the 1700Z mesoanalysis, expecting thunderstorms to increase in coverage over these areas during the next couple hours. Eventually, as outflows merge and the sea breeze advances inland, should see additional development late this afternoon and this evening over the remaining inland areas. Activity will settle down towards sunset with the loss of daytime heating. A few storms could become strong and capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Stay weather aware and have a plan in place to seek shelter if a thunderstorm approaches, especially for those celebrating the holiday weekend outdoors. Heat indices this afternoon will peak in the 100 to 105 degree range, so be sure to stay hydrated and take breaks from the sun in cooler, shaded areas.

Tonight will be quiet and muggy as convection pushes offshore, though a few showers and rumbles of thunder could linger along the coast. Lows remain in the 70s. More thunderstorms are expected again Sunday. Similar to today, convective initiation will likely occur during the morning hours along the coast, then spread inland throughout the day with sea breeze and other boundary mergers/collisions. High temps on Sunday will be similar to today, reaching the upper 80s for most and low 90s for a few. /49

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/ . An active pattern continues through the short term as the area remains under the influence of a broad upper level low and weak sfc low pressure. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary lingers over the area before gradually lifting north on Tuesday. All of these factors combined with a deeply moist airmass with precipitable water values well above normal will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. The storms will be efficient rainfall producers, with locally heavy rain possible. The severe threat is low due to the very moist vertical profiles, however an isolated wet microburst can not be ruled out due to precip loading. High temps will remain below normal due to the clouds and rain with no change to the muggy overnight lows. /13

EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/ . A wet and muggy pattern continues into the extended range as the upper low slowly lifts northward and opens up. A deep, tropical airmass remains over the area and even with the low lifting north, above normal rain chances continue through Thursday. An upper ridge over the southern plains expands eastward late in the week, bringing some drier air into the area and lowering rain chances back to a more typical summerlike precip pattern. However, with the resulting northwest flow aloft, convective complexes developing to the north and west will have to be monitored.

Given the rain and cloud cover, afternoon highs will only top out in the 80s through mid-week. Temperatures will progressively get hotter each afternoon through the remainder of the week. The heat index will also get higher and higher each day with widespread 100-105° heat index Wednesday through early next weekend. /13

MARINE . A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow will prevail into early next week with relatively few impacts to boaters over the marine area. Scattered thunderstorms are possible through the period, with brief but localized higher winds and seas in and around the stronger storms. /49

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 15 mi51 min ENE 1 G 4.1 81°F 87°F1012.4 hPa (+1.0)
PPTA1 33 mi51 min 81°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi41 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 82°F 85°F1011.9 hPa73°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 47 mi81 min NE 4.1 79°F 1012.5 hPa
WBYA1 47 mi51 min 84°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 47 mi66 min 76°F 1012 hPa74°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 57 mi51 min NNE 1 80°F 1011.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL14 mi55 minNNE 410.00 miThunderstorm78°F75°F92%1012 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi58 minNE 55.00 miFog/Mist79°F75°F88%1012.2 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL20 mi1.9 hrsN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F73°F82%1011.6 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi55 minENE 410.00 miFair76°F73°F91%1010.8 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL23 mi55 minESE 410.00 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain78°F72°F84%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHRT

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3N5N3N3N4NE6E7E7SE6SE8SE8S11--CalmS5S6SW6SW4--SW5NW4N4
1 day agoNW5NW3N4NW3NW4N6NW6N5N3CalmS6SW4SW8SW9SW10SW8SW10SW9SW9W6SW5NW3N3NE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS6CalmW4N7N7N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:06 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:11 PM CDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:39 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.4-0.2-00.20.50.81.11.51.822.22.22.22.11.91.61.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.