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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1017 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers. Patchy fog.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Monday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 1017 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..Moderate southwest flow persists into Sunday morning. Dense marine fog will also be possible through early Sunday morning, mainly over the nearshore alabama waters. A light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into early next week in the wake of a cold front.

FXUS64 KMOB 022351 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 551 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

LIFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities due to developing fog will resume behind a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving eastward across the western Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama. Winds will slowly turn southwesterly then northwesterly by tomorrow morning as the cold front sweeps from west to east across the area, with VFR conditions returning. Any lingering light rain showers will subside with the progression of the cold front. /22

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 353 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

The sloppy mess of rain continues this afternoon as we slowly chip away at the drought conditions. Broad southwesterly flow aloft with several embedded shortwaves will persist through Today before slowly pushing east on Sunday. The remainder of the day appears to be on track and expect scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms to remain possible, with best chances shifting east of the I-65 corridor by the afternoon hours. We see renewed chances for showers and storms late tonight into Sunday morning as another shortwave pushes across the area. The surface cold front starts working its way through the CWA late tonight into Sunday morning, finally ushering in drier, cooler air as we head into Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect high temperatures today to top out in the lower to middle 70's, dipping into the upper 50's inland and lower to middle 60's nearer the coast tonight. Sunday will be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's.

The overall threat for flash flooding appears to have diminished a bit as well considering the convective evolution so far this morning. Storms have been a bit more progressive and have not had a tendency to train very much, and storms later this morning into tonight will not have as much potential to train repeatedly over the same areas. Despite this, still expect an additional inch or two of rainfall over the forecast area, particularly nearer the coast. A high risk of rip currents remains in place through Sunday afternoon. BB/03 MM/25

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Dry week ahead!

A shortwave dives across the Plains Sunday night and quickly pivots into the Midwest on Monday. The associated surface low will drag another cold front across the region late on Monday, but the lack of appreciable moisture will mean that it'll be a dry frontal passage. Flow aloft turns zonal locally as yet another shortwave pivots into the Plains and Upper Midwest on the heels on the previously mentioned shortwave Monday into Tuesday. This shortwave trough amplifies and digs into the Southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday as ridging builds over the western half of the CONUS. Another dry cold front in this parade of fronts will swing out of the Midwest and sweep across the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A surface high builds into the region in the wake of the front and the area remains dry through the end of the work week. Moisture begins to rebound through the afternoon on Friday as the high moves east of the area and winds turn southerly. We begin to see deep southerly flow by Saturday ahead of a more potent shortwave pivoting into the Plains. The next chance for any appreciable rainfall will be either late in the weekend or early next week as another cold front moves through the area. Seasonable temperatures expected for much of the week with slightly cooler than average temperatures expected Wednesday.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning is still expected to be the coldest night of the week with some spots north of the Highway 84 corridor dipping below freezing for a few hours. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Moderate southeast to southerly flow persists today, becoming moderate for the weekend. Winds and seas will also be locally higher near showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move east across the marine area late Saturday and early Sunday, with a moderate offshore flow becoming established Sunday night into the early part of next week. BB/03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 61 71 50 66 41 63 43 61 / 70 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 66 72 55 66 46 62 46 61 / 80 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 67 74 58 71 49 64 49 62 / 90 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 62 72 46 68 38 64 39 58 / 70 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 58 70 48 64 38 63 39 58 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 60 69 46 63 36 60 37 56 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 65 74 47 69 38 64 40 61 / 90 40 0 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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Navarre Beach, Florida (sub), Tide feet

East Bay
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Sat -- 02:01 AM CST     1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:02 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:03 PM CST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:39 PM CST     Moonrise
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East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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