Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 9:43 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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GMZ655 Expires:202405130930;;097984 Fzus54 Kmob 122028 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 328 pm cdt Sun may 12 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-130930- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 328 pm cdt Sun may 12 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers late this evening. A chance of showers after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms late. Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 5 seconds. Showers. Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Tuesday - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: south 6 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Wednesday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 3 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds and south 3 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Friday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 328 Pm Cdt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate easterly flow will transition to onshore flow into tonight and persist into the early part of the coming week as a system approaches the area from the west. Increasing onshore flow and building seas are expected during the mid to late part of next week. A small craft advisory may be needed for Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS64 KMOB 121739 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1239 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

General VFR conditions with scattered light rainshowers and southeasterly winds of 5 to 10 knots will drop to mid to upper MVFR overnight into Monday. Local drops to low end MVFR are expected as increasing coverage of showers with embedded thunderstorms move over the area. East to southeast winds around 10 knots expected by Monday morning.
/16

NEAR TERM
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Break time is over as we head back into another active pattern to start the week. Broad southwesterly flow will develop over the area as a rather deep upper level low ejects out of the Desert Southwest into the central Great Plains. A rather flat ridge will be in place across the southern Gulf which will help pump moisture northward slowly by Monday. At the surface, a warm front will attempt to lift northward ahead of this system late tonight into early Monday morning as moisture rapidly improves. PWATS will climb to around 1.8 to 2.0 inches with PWATS south of the warm front approaching 2.25 inches. With the ridge in place, expect today to remain mostly dry; however, weak ascent over the warm front may lead to some overrunning showers especially this morning but rain overall should be light and isolated. Monday will be the main event with multiple rounds of showers and storms. Heavy rainfall appears to be the primary threat with also the potential for strong to severe storms capable of all severe hazards. Storms will likely continue into Monday night as the upper trough pivots into the Mid-Mississippi valley.

Heavy Rainfall...Heavy rainfall appears to be the greatest threat; however, there are confidence issues on where the heaviest rainfall will fall. The overall setup supports somewhere in the general area getting whacked with some heavy rainfall. You have the classic setup with high PWATS, warm tropical rain processes, deep instability, a low level jet perpendicular to the initiating boundary advecting moisture towards the boundary with strong convergence and deep layer flow/shear parallel to the boundary to support training. The main question at play is where the heck this boundary will setup and there appears to be two main scenarios possible.

Scenario 1. About half the guidance is trying to push the warm font well inland Monday night with the heaviest rain axis occurring north of our area. In this scenario, the worst rain likely falls north of our area across central Alabama with our main rain maker coming Monday night. However, confidence in this scenario does not seem as high given historical difficulties that these types of systems have trying to shove a warm front northward without igniting a mess of storms. As a result this scenario seems the less likely solution unfortunately but a forecaster can hope right?

Scenario 2. The rest of the guidance and high res guidance appears to be slowly trending towards this solution. In this solution the warm front gets hung up somewhere near the coast leading to persistent training and overrunning of deep convection along and just inland of the coast. The key player in this will be a MCS that develops Sunday evening in Louisiana. If this system associated with a lead shortwave arrives early and travels down the boundary, its cold outflow will re-enforce the boundary allowing it to get stuck somewhere in the southern half of the area. This would then allow for steady southwesterly to southerly low level flow to pump deep moisture over and unleash the Gulf of Mexico on the area.
Unfortunately, in setups where you tend to have this broad southwesterly flow and attempt to move rather deep moist air northward rather quickly it tends to fire off a lot more storms than guidance thinks. The result is a better re-enforced boundary and higher likelihood of the boundary getting hung up. As a result the forecast leans towards the current model trends and this scenario where the area receives 3 to 5 inches of rain with a localized corridor of 6 plus inches across southeastern Mississippi into coastal Alabama closest to the boundary. For this a moderate risk of excessive rainfall has been issued and a flood watch may be needed in forecast packages if confidence increases.
The one saving grace is we have not seen a ton of rain recently and soil moisture is fairly dry. This will allow our sandy soils to attempt to keep up with heavier rainfall. This may limit the overall impact; however, we all know gulf coast rain rates can dump and can quickly overpower the grounds ability to absorb waters.

Severe... On top of heavy rainfall we could have a round of strong to severe storms early Monday morning along that advancing warm front.
As previously discussed, a MCS will likely be traveling down the warm front out of Louisiana and Mississippi. South of the warm front, a rapidly destabilizing environment will support the potential of deep surface based updrafts. On top of this, deep layer shear values will be around 70 knots, with long curved hodographs along the warm front. The main question will be what side of the front will the storms ride. Typically storms like to stay on the unstable side which would not be good. IF this cluster of storms stays south of the warm front and the warm front can slide onshore then a rather potent QLCS capable of damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. The big questions are 1. where does the warm front setup and 2. does the storms stay south of the warm front staying surface based. While the area is currently in a marginal risk, an upgrade may be necessary if trends continue today across southeastern Mississippi into coastal Alabama. BB/03

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Navarre Beach, Florida (sub), Tide feet

East Bay
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Sun -- 02:33 AM CDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
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Sun -- 03:11 PM CDT     1.99 feet High Tide
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East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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