Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 12:41 PM   Moonset 1:43 AM

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GMZ634 Expires:202405152130;;241838 Fzus54 Kmob 150839 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 339 am cdt Wed may 15 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633>636-152130- perdido bay-pensacola bay system-western choctawhatchee bay- eastern choctawhatchee bay- 339 am cdt Wed may 15 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 339 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - A weak pressure pattern supports light wind flow and lowering sea states for the middle of the week. Onshore flow returns and becomes well established by the end of the week continuing into Saturday, resulting in a gradual build in seas to a range of 3 to 6 ft. Marine weather to become more unsettled by late in the week with approach of next weather maker.

FXUS64 KMOB 151122 CCA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 620 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A bit of patchy morning mist reducing visibilities to generally 1 to 3 miles will quickly erode after sunrise. VFR conditions expected today with a general light northwest wind. /10

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

15.00Z upper air analysis shows axis of upper trough aligned over the forecast area. A narrow zone of weak support/lift has been enough to squeeze out a few showers/some rumbles of thunder over the northeast zones during the early AM hours. Deep layer dry air is beginning to overtake this zone and expect remainder of activity to dissipate by sunrise. The upper trough lifts up across the Appalachians today with short-wave upper ridging moving in over the deep south. At the surface, a weak pressure trough slips southeast over the eastern zones today and tonight followed by a weakly reflected high moving eastward on Thursday. Despite the surface trough, appears the deep layer dry air will take hold supporting a rain-free Wednesday, continuing into Thursday before a fairly quick ramp up in PoPs return going into the next period. There is some indication in the short range ensembles, albeit a small probability (~10%), of patchy fog development along the coastal zones late tonight.

Daytime highs look to be well into the 80s the next couple days with a few areas possibly reaching the 90 degree mark. Overnight lows tonight range from 59 to 63 interior to 65 to 70 coast.

A High Risk of rip currents continues along area beaches today, lowering to Moderate Thursday. /10

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The next storm system will move in from the west Thursday night as an upper trough over the Great Plains shifts slowly eastward with more rounds of shortwave energy traverse over our region through the remainder of the week. Much of the model guidance is also suggesting that a lead southern stream shortwave should eject across our forecast area out ahead of the main approaching mid/upper level trough. As this occurs, there is a fairly robust signal in the ensemble probabilistic guidance that there will be a surge of deep tropical moisture northward across the north central Gulf Coast associated with a lifting warm front with the air mass destabilizing rapidly along and south of the front by Thursday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across the forecast area Thursday night as several upper disturbances moving in the west-southwest flow aloft brings a round of elevated convection.

Increased ascent along with deeper Gulf moisture returning in the lower levels will resulting in an increase in showers/storms for Friday to potentially bring high impact weather along the northern Gulf Coast. There are indications of yet another heavy rain event on Friday, and WPC has areas along and northwest of I-65 in a Moderate Risk of flooding (4-6 inches possible) with a Slight Risk to the southeast of I-65. As far as strong to potentially severe storms, guidance points to Friday. All depends on position of the warm-front late in the week, but at this moment it appears SBCAPE values on Friday should be in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range along with marginal shear with Bulk Shear values in the 45 to 55 knot range along with increasing lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/Km. This should support another round of storms, some potentially severe, during this time period.

Storms may become increasingly surface based on Friday. This would only help to increase the overall severe weather potential, and SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather outlooked for the western half of our CWA, and a Marginal Risk across the east.
There will be some uncertainty with respect to the overall instability available for newly developing convection overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. These details will not be known until we get closer to the event and begin to see the eventual evolution of storms associated with the lead shortwave.
Either way, conditions appear to be increasingly favorable for some severe weather potential during the end of this week with details to still be worked out over the coming forecast cycles.

Storm coverage may continue into Saturday as the upper trough remain over the area and a potential boundary drapes across the area. This again will be dependent upon the evolution of the convection Friday night into Saturday morning and whether or not the air mass can recover. Low temperatures Thursday night will trend warmer to be 4 to 9 degrees above normal, ranging from around 65 degrees well inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
High temps on Thursday will be around 3 degrees above normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Along the beaches, a Moderate rip current on Thursday will increase to High on Friday through the weekend. /22

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Upper level ridging should become re-established across the Gulf Coast states by early next week and bring a return to dry weather along with increasingly hot temperatures. Temperatures will be about 3 to 7 degrees above normal, with highs ranging from 86 to 92 degrees and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Onshore flow returns and becomes well established by the end of the week and into Saturday, resulting in a gradual build in seas to a range of 3 to 6 ft. Marine weather to become more unsettled by late in the week with approach of next weather maker. Winds, waves, seas will be locally higher in and near storms. Visibility likely to be reduced in heavier rains. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 87 64 88 70 86 71 86 68 / 0 0 0 30 70 60 60 10 Pensacola 87 67 86 73 84 73 83 70 / 0 0 0 20 60 60 70 20 Destin 84 70 85 73 83 73 82 72 / 0 0 0 10 60 60 80 30 Evergreen 87 61 89 66 85 68 86 65 / 0 0 0 30 80 70 70 20 Waynesboro 85 61 89 65 83 66 85 64 / 0 0 0 50 90 60 50 10 Camden 84 60 87 66 82 66 84 64 / 0 0 0 40 80 70 60 20 Crestview 88 61 90 66 86 69 84 65 / 0 0 0 20 70 60 80 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:28 AM CDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 12:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:38 PM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, Tide feet

East Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:54 AM CDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 12:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:41 PM CDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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