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GMZ632 Mississippi Sound- 924 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 924 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow continues into Saturday. The onshore flow strengthens Saturday night ahead of a cold front. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow develops Sunday into Sunday night behind the front with gusts to gale force possible over the gulf. Moderate offshore flow returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week.

FXUS64 KMOB 072323 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 523 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 357 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 357 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

An amplified upper ridge extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley down into the local area continues to slide east this afternoon. Winds aloft will turn more southwesterly overnight as an upper ridge weakens and exits the area. Down at the surface, high pressure is currently centered over southern Georgia with an onshore flow prevailing over the local area. The high pressure to our east will get nudged out over the western Atlantic tonight and into Friday as the next system begins to approach our area.

As for sensible weather tonight, dry and cool conditions persist.
Lows are expected to dip into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the northern half of the area with middle 40s and lower 50s along southern parts of the county warning area. On Friday, we begin to moderate as an upper trough deepens over the central US and southwesterly flow aloft strengthens. This will allow for better deep layer moisture advection into the area with PWATs increasing to 1-1.3 inches by Friday afternoon. The increase in moisture and weak isentropic lift may result in isolated to perhaps scattered showers mainly along the coast by Friday afternoon. There could also be a thunderstorm or two out over the Gulf waters where the better instability is expected. Warm air advection will result in warmer temperatures on Friday. Highs top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama with middle 60s over parts of south central Alabama. /14

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 357 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

An upper-level longwave trough, located over the Rockies at the start of the period, will become more amplified as it quickly translates across the central US through the weekend. Deep southwesterly flow will be in place aloft as the trough approaches our region, helping to increase PWATs to around 1.3-1.5 inches.
The trough's axis passes overhead late Sunday afternoon and northwesterly flow aloft behind it allows for a much drier airmass to advect into the region by Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will help to maintain a southeasterly flow pattern across the area. This continued pattern will give way to an efficient warm air advection regime and will allow for temperatures and dew points to quickly rise on Saturday, with highs topping out in the mid 70s and dew points increasing into the upper 60s to near 70. By Saturday night and into Sunday morning, a strong cold front will approach and quickly sweep across the local area. In its wake, high pressure builds in and the weather turns much cooler and drier for Sunday afternoon and night.

Rain chances will start to increase on Friday night especially over the eastern half of the region as a weak shortwave, embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft, pushes overhead. Throughout the day, rain will become more numerous as overall ascent increases as the longwave trough approaches, embedded shortwave impulses pass overhead, and strengthening WAA at the surface gives way to efficient isentropic lift. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out throughout the day as some weak destabilization occurs across the area. By Saturday evening and into the overnight hours, our attention turns to the approaching cold front from the northwest.
Very high rain chances (80-90 percent) are in place as the front approaches and moves through the area. Plenty of shear will also be present out ahead of the front (0-6km bulk shear values of 40- 50kts). Although this shear would be supportive of storm organization, the best jet dynamics/forcing looks to remain displaced to our north and west. In addition, weak lapse rates and earlier rainfall should help to keep instability rather low across the region (CAPE values generally around 400-800 J/kg). Some drier air aloft may lend to higher DCAPE values, which could lead to gusty downburst winds if a storm can get tall enough to utilize the higher winds aloft, and if there are any lingering mesoscale boundaries/outflow from earlier storms, there could be a brief spin up along these boundaries. But with the limited forcing and instability across the area, the overall severe threat still looks fairly marginal across the area. We will continue to monitor trends over the coming days.

A High Risk of rip currents will be in place for Saturday and Sunday. /96

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Surface high pressure builds into the area on Monday and becomes anchored over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley regions through the week. The subsident pattern combined with a persistent north to northeasterly surface wind will keep conditions dry and cool through Thursday. High temperatures top out in the 50s and perhaps lower 60s later in the week with lows ranging from the 30s inland to the lower and middle 40s along the coast. The coldest night in the extended period will be Monday night as strong radiational cooling and cold air advection allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s over inland locations with middle 30s along the immediate coast. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow continues into Saturday. The onshore flow pattern will strengthen Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow develops Sunday into Sunday night following the passage of the front, with gusts to gale force possible over open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed Saturday night into Monday morning, and possibly a Gale Watch/Warning as well.
Moderate offshore flow then returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week. /14

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 47 70 60 75 54 61 34 55 / 0 10 20 40 90 50 0 0 Pensacola 53 68 62 74 60 65 38 54 / 10 30 40 60 90 60 10 0 Destin 53 70 63 73 64 69 40 57 / 10 30 50 60 90 70 10 0 Evergreen 39 67 57 75 56 62 32 53 / 0 10 30 60 90 60 10 0 Waynesboro 40 68 56 76 49 55 31 54 / 0 10 20 50 90 30 0 0 Camden 39 67 56 75 53 59 31 51 / 0 10 30 60 90 60 0 0 Crestview 42 67 57 73 60 65 33 55 / 0 20 40 60 90 60 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Bayou La Batre
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Thu -- 01:23 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:28 AM CST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:58 PM CST     0.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayou La Batre, Mississippi Sound, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Thu -- 01:22 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:59 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:35 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM CST     -0.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:00 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:27 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:36 PM CST     0.33 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:16 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

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