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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay- 324 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight cst tonight through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 324 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the day today. Strong northerly flow will briefly develop tonight though Wednesday morning in the wake of a cold front, before decreasing and turning easterly to southeasterly late in the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 052330 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 530 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light westerly to northwesterly winds this evening will become more northerly and increase to around 10 to 15 knots by midnight in the wake of a cold front. Some north-northwesterly wind shear of around 30-40 knots may be possible at around 2000 feet for interior regions overnight tonight. At this time LLWS was excluded from the latest TAFs, but we will continue to monitor. /22

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 339 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

A large upper-level trough digging over the eastern half of the US will slowly push into the Atlantic through the period. In its wake, upper ridging, currently building over the Rockies, will slide eastward and pass overhead on Thursday. Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through Wednesday night before turning zonal and eventually southwesterly as the ridge passes over our area. At the surface, a cold front associated with the upper trough will sweep through the area tonight. Behind it, high pressure will build in from the north, helping to advect in another re-enforcing cool/dry airmass. With PWATs plummeting to around 0.25 to 0.5 inches, no rain is expected through the period.
Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows tonight in the wake of the front will drop into the upper 30s inland to low 40s along the coast. Wednesday night will feature our coldest temperatures this week, thanks to clear skies and calm winds. Lows will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and mid to upper 30s along the coast. With small T/Td spreads that night at the surface, most areas north of I-10 will likely see a widespread frost overnight. Temperatures start to moderate Thursday night as the high pushes to our east and winds turn onshore. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the period. /96

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

An upper-level longwave trough digging into the Southern Plains Friday and Saturday will begin to eject northeastward Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface, an associated low pressure system looks to develop over Oklahoma Friday night and quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes region by Saturday night. As it lifts northeastward, a trailing cold front will approach and sweep through our local area Saturday night, ushering in a much cooler/drier air mass in its wake.

Out ahead of the upper trough and cold front, warm air advection will set up across the region thanks to southwesterly flow aloft and southeasterly flow at the surface. A weak, lead shortwave, embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft, should push overhead Friday evening/night, helping to increase rain chances for Friday night and especially into Saturday. By Saturday evening/night, very high rain chances are in place as the front approaches and moves through the area. We will have to continue to monitor trends over the upcoming days for any potential severe weather as this system moves through. Although we will have plenty of moisture and shear across the area, instability seems rather meager at this time. In addition, the best forcing at this time, similar to previous events over the past few weeks, looks to remain just to our north and west. That being said, subtle shifts in the speed and progression of the trough, along with the degree of destabilization, will likely be the determining factors for the overall severe risk as the front pushes through the area.

We quickly dry out in the wake of the front on Sunday and cool/dry conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the period. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

A light to moderate offshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the day today. Strong northerly flow is expected to briefly develop tonight in the wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from midnight tonight through noon Wednesday for Mobile Bay, the MS Sound, and our local Gulf waters out 60 NM for sustained winds of around 20-25 knots. Winds could occasionally gust to around 30 knots, especially over the Gulf.
Winds will relax and turn more easterly to southeasterly late in the week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 39 58 33 60 46 69 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 60 Pensacola 43 58 38 59 49 67 61 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 60 Destin 46 59 40 60 50 67 61 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 60 Evergreen 37 57 30 61 37 66 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 Waynesboro 36 56 29 60 39 69 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 70 Camden 36 55 29 59 37 66 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 Crestview 38 58 30 60 37 66 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

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Bayou La Batre
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Tue -- 01:45 AM CST     1.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:33 PM CST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:36 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayou La Batre, Mississippi Sound, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Tue -- 04:12 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:01 AM CST     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:35 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:49 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM CST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

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