Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marshallberg, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:55PM Saturday August 24, 2019 5:42 PM ADT (20:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:19AMMoonset 2:21PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshallberg, NC
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location: 30.38, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241947
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
347 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will linger just south of our area tonight and
Sunday. The front will stall well offshore Sunday as a potential
tropical or subtropical low moves northeast but well off the
coast through Monday. Another cold front will approach the area
mid week.

Near term through tonight
As of 245 pm Saturday... Latest upper air analysis shows a broad
positively-tilted trough draped across the northeast u.S. With
eastern n.C. Near the right-entrance region of an h3 50-60 kt
jet. Some weak mid-level energy at h5 was noted in spc
mesoanalysis drifting into central nc. At the surface, a ridge
of high pressure (indicative of cad) continues to strengthen in
the wake of the cold front now stalled off the coast.

Overrunning 850 mb southerly flow over the front, combined with
the mid-level vorticity advection and weak jet support has aided
in scattered shower activity across much of the area.

Expect rain to continue into the evening as the aforementioned
mid-level disturbance slowly migrates east and the front remains
pinned near the coast. The extensive cloud cover today, as
expected, greatly hindered instability and the odds of any real
appreciable QPF associated with convective downpours. Kept pops
at likely but did lower QPF quite a bit as a result and took out
any mention of thunder as best instability looks to be offshore.

Have pops gradually trending lower into the morning hours as
mid- level support degrades. Coastal areas closest to the
surface front could still see a shower or two and kept chance
pops here.

Temps cooler still as the wedge persists with lows upper 60s
inland and low to mid 70s along the coast.

Short term Sunday
The upper level trough gradually shifts east with increasingly
dry air filtering in at the mid and upper levels. The high
pressure ridge is expected to continue strengthening Sunday. The
bulk of precip should remain offshore near the front coastal
trough but cannot rule out a few showers or two near the coast.

Otherwise with increasing dry air cloud cover should finally
start to slowly decrease through the day. The wedge should still
keep temps pleasant for late august with highs again upper 70s
inland and low 80s closer to the coast.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
As of 345 pm sat... A drying trend for the latter half of the
weekend through early next week, then a cold front moves through
mid week with the next chance of showers or storms. Mainly dry
for the end of the week with high pres moving back in.

Sunday night through Monday... The mid to upper level trough
over the NE CONUS will will slide farther east, with high pres
ridging southward into the carolinas and possible tropical or
subtropical system moving NE well off the coast. This regime
will bring mainly dry conditions as drier dewpoints advect in
with the high and the quasi- stationary frontal boundary
remaining well south of the area. Decreased pops markedly,
though kepts some small 20-30% along immediate coast where some
showers may brush by, though mainly should remain over the
coastal waters.

Much cooler for Sun night as td's drop into the low 60s inland
to. Lows will range from the low mid 60s coastal plain to around
70 coastal locales. Highs Monday pleasant with continued lowered
dewpoints, and mainly in the 80-85 degree range.

Tuesday... Continued mainly dry as tempo ridging continues with
next shortwave and front still well to the west. Temps moderate
a bit more into the mid to possibly some upper 80s.

Wednesday through Thursday... Good agreement amongst 24 12z
global model suite in next shortwave and cold front swinging
through. Have continued the chc pops for sct showers storms
mainly Wed and Wed night. Kept in a chc pop for thur as well as
there are some timing differences on the exit of the shortwave
and frontal boundary. Temps will be near climo with highs
mid upr 80s and lows in the mid upr 60s interior to low 70s
coast.

Friday through Saturday... Fcst a bit more murky this period.

Some indication the frontal boundary lifts north or becomes hung
up near the coast, and some showers develop with increasing
fgen, so will keep chc pops coastal areas and silent 20 pop for
interior zones. Latest ecm has a clean FROPA and dry high pres,
though would like to see more run-to-run continuity before
removing pops. Temps will continue near climo this period.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 140 pm Saturday... Overcast skies and MVFR will dominate
the TAF period. Scattered showers this afternoon continue to
filter into the area and observations show ifr conditions within
the steady rainfall. Overnight ceilings will hover close to the
MVFR ifr threshold, but models are suggesting predominantly
MVFR ceilings.

Long term Sunday night through Thu ...

as of 345 pm sat... A quasi-stationary boundary will remain
well south later this weekend through early next week, therefore
a drier regime expected. Still could see some ocnl subVFR
mainly in lowered CIGS as some low level moisture remains, but
generally a drying trend is taking shape. Next cold front with
possible showers storms arrives by Wednesday.

Marine
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm sat... Current obs show seas around 2 feet south of
hatteras and 3 to 5 north with winds generally around 10-15
knots out of the N nne. Seas never got quite to 6 feet but have
lingered at around 5 feet north of oregon inlet. Similar
conditions expected in the near term before a tightening
gradient between the front and the ridge increases winds to
10-20 knots, increasing to around 20 to 25 knots from north to
south by Sunday afternoon. Scas have been expanded to all waters
by Sunday morning and continuing into the long term. Seas
gradually build to 6 feet for all waters by Sunday night.

Long term Sunday night through Thu ...

as of 345 pm sat... Ne winds peak Sun evening with high pres
inland and low pres well off the coast maximizin the gradient.

Winds solid 15-25 kt with some higher gusts, and SCA for all
rivers and sounds except for the pamlico river. The wind
gradient begins to relax on Monday, though seas will remain
elevated for longer, through Tuesday. Return flow to the E and
then S develops on Wed though will be quite light no higher
than 10 kts ahead of next front that sweeps through sometime
Wednesday night, which will bring winds back around to a nrly
direction by thu.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am Sunday to 2 am edt Monday for
amz131-137-230-231.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Sunday to 11 am edt Monday for
amz135.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Sunday to 8 pm edt Tuesday for
amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Sunday to 6 pm edt Monday for
amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Sunday to 8 pm edt Tuesday for
amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ms
short term... Ms
long term... Tl
aviation... Tl ml
marine... Tl ms


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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.