Madisonville, LA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Madisonville, LA

June 16, 2024 7:48 PM CDT (00:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM
Moonrise 2:14 PM   Moonset 1:09 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 356 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 16 2024

.small craft exercise caution in effect through Tuesday morning - .

Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.

Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Monday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening.

Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.

Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.

Friday - East winds around 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 356 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 16 2024

Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
winds will strengthen to small craft advisory levels on Monday in response to a broad area of low pressure developing in the bay of campeche, and these stronger winds of 20 to 30 knots will then persist through the middle of the week. Frequent gusts to near gale- force will be possible west of the mouth of the mississippi river. Seas will also build in response to the strengthening winds with seas of up to 12 feet expected in the offshore waters by Tuesday and Wednesday. A gradual decrease in wind speeds and seas is expected on Thursday and Friday as the low in the bay of campeche moves into mexico and weakens.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madisonville, LA
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Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 162343 AAA AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 643 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

NEW AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in association with a weak inverted surface trough continue to move inland over southeast LA this afternoon. Primary impacts are heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds in excess of 30-40 mph. This activity will gradually wane into the evening hours as daytime heating dissipates and weak subsidence from high pressure on the back side of the trough moves in. This will create a lull in rainfall tonight through early Monday morning.

Monday we'll see PWATs surge in excess of 2" (near daily record maximums) and more widespread convective coverage develop over the coastal waters and spread inland through the morning hours. Locally heavy downpours (rain rates as high as 2"/hour possible), frequent lightning, and gusty winds in excess of 35-40 mph will be the primary impacts, similar to today. With coverage being more widespread, however, this does increase the potential for localized flash flooding especially in urban and poor drainage areas. Be extra careful on your morning commute and give yourself extra time to arrive to work. Timing appears to focus heaviest rainfall through the first half of Monday with lesser coverage and concerns as we progress into the late afternoon and evening hours.

Gradual deepening of a broad low over the Bay of Campeche up against a strengthening high pressure system over the southeast CONUS will generate a strong pressure gradient over the northern Gulf Coast. As such, surface winds will increase on Monday and continue to intensify through Tuesday. Immediate coastal areas where friction is weaker coming off the water will see sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph. This is right at the cusp of wind advisory criteria, but will hold off on this forecast package. If confidence increases in more frequent gusts exceeding 30 mph this would probably prompt issuance of one. While breezy, areas further inland will see reduced winds by comparison due to frictional forces as these stronger winds push inland.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The plume of deep tropical moisture associated with the broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf will continue to push westward in conjunction with the low moving toward the western Gulf coast. Based on the trends associated with the track of this low, the axis of heaviest storm total rainfall has shifted further southwest. Highest totals are still focused along coastal Southeast LA of 2 to 4" and lower amounts further inland and northeast. Tuesday should still see a fair amount of coverage of showers and storms with similar timing and impacts to Monday.
Additional concern at this stage would just be the antecedent conditions present from any heavy rainfall that occurred on Monday.

Rain chances will be tempered slightly Wednesday into the latter part of the week as drier continental air on the western flank of the surface high pressure is able to infiltrate from the northeast and decrease PWATs. This will put us back into a more typical summer convective regime with morning marine convection and afternoon thunderstorms. Slightly more ridging is able to nose into the latter part of the week which will help dry things up and help us see more sunshine (and heat things up slightly).
Uncertainty is much higher Friday into the weekend as we monitor the progress of an inverted surface trough currently situated over the southwestern Atlantic. Some of the deterministic guidance has indicated the potential that this weak surface trough rounds the southern flank of the high pressure of the eastern CONUS and arrives into the area around this timeframe, but the exact track and strength of this feature varies greatly in the ensemble guidance. Just something to watch for now.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Most of the convection has moved out of the region this evening.
Think this will be a brief break in the rain/storm chances so carried only VCs overnight for showers. That said mostly VFR anticipated overnight.MCB may drop into IFR ranges with CIGs overnight with also a reduced VIS. Otherwise, convection will again develop Monday morning and continue to stream south to north. A bit higher confidence in convection on Monday vs today as well as timing. Continued VCTS as exact timing of embedded thunder is currently tough to pin down. Otherwise, southeasterly winds will begin to increase across the region with many sites gusting over 20kts by mid to late morning through the end of the cycle. (Frye)



MARINE
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Have been dealing with clusters of storms producing gusty conditions across the waters, but should see a lull in activity overnight with weak surface high pressure nosing in. This also will briefly weaken the pressure gradient and result in winds relaxing, but this will be very short-lived.

Conditions will gradually worsen Monday morning over the open Gulf waters as the pressure gradient between a high to the northeast and a low to the southwest strengthens. By tomorrow morning, small craft advisory conditions are expected to be in place as easterly winds ramp up to 20 to 25 knots. These easterly winds will remain in place through the end of the week and could further strengthen to near gale levels on Tuesday and Wednesday as the low to the southwest continues to deepen. Given the long fetch of these 20 to 30 knot winds from the southeast Gulf into the coastal waters a swell train of 3 to 4 feet is expected on top of the wind waves of 5 to 8 feet, and this will push seas to between 8 and 12 feet over the open Gulf waters on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Additionally, water will continue to pile up on east and south facing shores over this period, and minor coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is expected from Tuesday through Thursday. A coastal flood warning may be necessary for areas around Lake Borgne and Bay St. Louis on Wednesday if confidence increases for inundation closer to 2.5 feet or so. Will monitor levels within Lake Pontchartrain as this fetch gradually funnels into the lake Thursday into Friday.

The low in the southwest Gulf should move into Mexico on Thursday and Friday and the pressure gradient will begin to ease as the low weakens. Winds will slowly ease from 20 to 25 knots on Thursday to 15 to 20 knots by Friday. Given the extended duration of small craft conditions, a small craft advisory is in effect for the open Gulf waters and the Chandeleur and Breton Sounds from Monday morning to Thursday morning. There is the potential that winds could further increase into gale conditions, and a gale watch may be issued closer to the event on Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 85 71 83 / 30 90 20 50 BTR 76 87 76 86 / 40 90 30 70 ASD 76 88 76 87 / 50 80 50 70 MSY 79 87 79 86 / 60 90 60 90 GPT 77 87 76 86 / 60 80 50 60 PQL 75 90 75 91 / 60 80 40 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ068.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ066>070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 25 mi48 minSE 1G6 83°F 88°F29.96
CARL1 31 mi48 min 82°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi48 min 79°F 88°F29.95
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 44 mi48 minESE 8G9.9 83°F 80°F29.98
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 44 mi48 minESE 6G8 86°F 86°F29.95


Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KHDC HAMMOND NORTHSHORE RGNL,LA 17 sm13 minSE 0510 smClear79°F77°F94%29.96
KASD SLIDELL,LA 18 sm55 mincalm10 smClear82°F75°F79%29.95
KNEW LAKEFRONT,LA 24 sm55 minSE 0810 smMostly Cloudy84°F75°F74%29.96
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Wind History graph: HDC
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Tide / Current for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
   
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Paris Road Bridge
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Sun -- 12:32 AM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:07 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:35 PM CDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:57 PM CDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
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Sun -- 02:06 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM CDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:11 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley   
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New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,




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