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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 812 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening with visibility 1 nm or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 812 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a cold front continues to very slowly drift southeast with onshore flow into the weekend as a series of low pressure systems pass north of the waters. There is the potential for fog nearshore tonight into Saturday. A cold front will move through late Sunday allowing high pressure to finally build over the northern gulf for the start of the new week.

FXUS64 KLIX 012320 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 520 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 440 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

It looks like another active night and this is likely to begin much earlier than last night. Main thing is not much has changed in the setup as we are still under southwest flow with the old boundary from the convection this morning draped across the area.
The cold front is still off to the west and is not expected to move to the east quickly, likely pushing through sometime Sunday.
With southwest flow and until the front can move through rain at the least will remain possible if not probable but we are anticipating one more round of locally heavy rain and even a few strong to severe storms which looks like is this evening and overnight.

Already beginning to see some response to the increasing lift in the flow aloft with scattered storms beginning to fire across the area.
Moisture is very abundant right now with PWs still near 2" and this will be near a record. That alone gives you the idea of the available moisture and also we are seeing a quick response to developing convection. The slight increase in lift as the next disturbance approaches and increase in isentropic lift is more than sufficient to get this scattered convection and the activity is expected to only increase over the next 6 to 12 hours and intensify especially as we feel the disturbance more which still back in south TX and just crossing the TX/Mexico border. In addition the LL wind field is expected to respond with h85 winds increasing and what could be a weak LL jet developing over the northern Gulf and nosing into SELA. This will increase the LL convergence especially at the nose and and south to the core of this jet. That will likely increase the intensity of thunderstorm development which looks to be around 2/3z across SELA and perhaps around the 10/12 corridor which is over areas that saw the heaviest rain yesterday. Storms initially will move SW to NE and there is a good chance that storms could train until we get a more congealed complex or line which is likely not going to happen until shortly after midnight. Once that happens convection should begin to take on more of an eastward motion as a whole, while individual cells move to the northeast. One last piece of info is upper level diffluence/divergence will be present but at least this is the one aspect that isn't really that impressive and is mainly just some slight to moderate divergence. However there is divergence none the less and combined with the increasing mid lvl support, developing and favorable LL convergence setup, likely record PWs and even some instability and storms will once again be very efficient and capable of dropping over 2" in an hour.

Because of the band of 2 to almost 6 inches of rain we saw across most of the 10/12 corridor, the large urban areas of BTR and NO with flood prone areas, and multiple events occurring tonight in the same areas where large groups will be together and likely trying to head home as conditions start to tank, felt it was the best idea to get a Flash Flood Watch out from 6p-6a.

In addition to the flash flood potential strong to even a few storms will also be possible. There is even a better chance of a few storms becoming sfc based as we already have 70 degree dewpoints over portions of the area. Even though the shear and kinematics will not be anywhere as strong as last night conditions look quite favorable to produce rotating storms. As mentioned earlier that boundary from this mornings convection is draped across the area from WSW to ENE and as the disturbance approaches this evening a weak sfc low may begin to develop in the far northwestern Gulf strengthening the reflection of the inverted trough across the area with winds backing through the evening. Even though the sfc and even h925 winds don't really ramps up the fact that they become easterly to southeasterly with h85 winds beginning to increase and out of the S and SSW with h7 winds out of the SW. This will provide more than adequate SRH at both 0-1 and 0-3km while 0-6km bulk shear will be around 50-60 kt.
Instability will be in place and even though it may not be anything to necessarily jump out at you it is more than enough. The biggest concern is the boundary level once again. There is a good chance that most convection remains elevated but this time that will be much shallower than last night and with upper 60s dewpoints and even lower 70s already in place or on the doorstep it may be much easier to finally get some stronger winds and even a few quick QLCS like spin ups. Given that we had one last night in a far more hostile environment feel like there could be a few more tonight. Again the biggest concern is what could be multiple people either outside at an event and/or driving home people need to be aware of the potential.

Southwest flow remains over the area tomorrow and convection will likely continue into tomorrow but it does look like the worst of it will be tonight. Cold front and possibly the trough axis moves through Sunday and this will dry there area out. slightly cooler LL temps will move in but the more noticeable feature will be the dewpoints which could drop into the upper 30s by Sunday night but likely in the 40s for most of the area. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 440 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Models continue to advertise a rather dry week next with a more substantial disturbance dropping out of Canada and through the MS Valley Monday and this will bring a reinforcing front with much drier air and finally some cooler air with highs likely in the 60s Tuesday through Thursday. /CAB/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports and conditions are expected to deteriorate through the evening to widespread IFR conditions due to more moderate to heavy rainfall and storms expected now through the morning hours. LIFR conditions will be possible at all area airports, mainly between midnight and 4am, for low ceilings (and for low visibilities mainly for airports along and north of I-10). Conditions will improve to MVFR and IFR for most area airports by early to late morning Saturday (between 8a and noon). Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be possible, mainly tomorrow during the afternoon hours. MSW

MARINE
Issued at 440 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

The stalled cold front to the northwest will start to slowly work east but is not expected to finally enter and move through the coastal waters till Sunday. Light to moderate onshore flow will occur outside of convection until that front moves through with offshore flow back in place. These winds will gradually shift to N then NE by Wed. Winds will then quickly shift to easterly by Thu and remain in that direction through the end of the week with some small fluctuations. Wind speeds will mostly be 10-15kt but some higher winds around 20kt could temporarily move over the gulf with successive reinforcing frontal passages. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 72 53 70 / 100 90 50 0 BTR 66 76 57 74 / 100 80 40 0 ASD 64 74 58 72 / 100 90 70 0 MSY 67 74 61 69 / 100 90 60 0 GPT 63 72 60 70 / 100 80 80 10 PQL 63 75 60 73 / 100 90 90 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ046>048-056>060-064-065- 076>090.

GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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