Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cinco Bayou, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:31PM Thursday August 13, 2020 11:45 AM CDT (16:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:56AMMoonset 3:06PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:202008132000;;374770 Fzus54 Kmob 130800 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 300 Am Cdt Thu Aug 13 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-132000- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 300 Am Cdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Today..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 300 Am Cdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure extending from the western atlantic into the gulf waters persists through the end of the week. Expect a light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow with little change in seas through early next week. Winds and seas will be higher near showers and Thunderstorms each day. Waterspouts are possible early each morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cinco Bayou town, FL
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location: 30.39, -86.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 131215 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 715 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/. Forecast remains on track this morning with no significant changes necessary at this time. Slow-moving showers and storms continue to develop over the Gulf waters this morning. Convection will develop inland throughout the late morning and afternoon hours, especially across parts of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Minor/nuisance flooding continues to be the main threat today (although we cannot rule out isolated strong storms later today) as the deep steering flow remains light coupled with deep moisture in place over the region. 07/mb

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Patchy fog and low clouds will continue to impact TAF sites for another hour before lifting. Showers and storms will develop late this morning through the afternoon, especially across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast, except near thunderstorms when visibilities and ceilings could drop to MVFR or IFR. Wind gusts of 15-25 knots are possible near thunderstorms today. Showers and a few storms will linger into the overnight hours across much of the area. 07/mb

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 525 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/ . Showers and storms are developing early this morning over the Gulf waters and this increasing trend in coverage will continue throughout the morning. Would not be surprised to see a few storms develop right along the coast and push inland across the coastal portions of Alabama and northwest Florida this morning based on current radar trends. Environmental conditions are supportive of brief waterspouts throughout the morning hours. Further inland, the probabilities are low for the development of widespread dense fog this morning, but cannot rule out a brief round of patchy fog and a low cloud deck right around sunrise in a few spots.

A series of shortwaves rotate around the northern periphery of the mid-upper level ridge that is anchored west of the area over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains between now and Friday. One of these mid level shortwaves slowly slides to the south and meanders across the region during this timeframe. In the low levels, the western Atlantic ridge continues to spill into the north central Gulf through Friday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low forms over the ArkLaMiss region overnight tonight into Friday morning and meanders to the northeast through the day on Friday.

The aforementioned pattern will open the door for unsettled weather and high rain coverage this afternoon through Friday. Convection will spread inland throughout the late morning and afternoon hours, especially west of I-65 where coverage will be influenced by the shortwave sliding into the region. Coverage will transition more to the north and east as we progress into the late afternoon and early evening hours. While there will be ample instability in place this afternoon, forecast soundings are more moist than the past few days. That said, there is some drier mid level air to our northwest noted in the water vapor satellite imagery that may edge into our CWA later today, thus a few isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon through the early evening hours. Unlike the past few evenings where convection over land areas generally wanes by midnight, the shortwave moving overhead will allow for the development of scattered showers and storms throughout Thursday night and into early Friday. Coverage will ramp up again on Friday by the late morning hours and into the afternoon as the mid level shortwave meanders through the area and a weak surface low persists nearby. Minor/nuisance flooding will continue to be an issue both afternoons as the deep steering flow remains somewhat light coupled with high PWATs.

Temperatures will top out in the 90s inland again this afternoon with upper 80s at the beaches. Temperatures on Friday will struggle to reach the 90s in many locations inland with the increase in cloud cover and rain coverage area-wide. Near normal overnight low temperatures are expected again tonight. The heat index will not be a concern today or tomorrow, although the beaches and river delta could see a brief spike into the 103-105° range late this morning.

LOW risk of rip currents persists through the end of the week. 07/mb

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Saturday night/ . An upper trof will be in place Friday evening from near the Great Lakes to the north central Gulf coast, with a modest surface low located near central Tennessee along with a surface trof which extends to the mid Atlantic coast. The upper trof advances slowly eastward into the Eastern States through Saturday night, and in the process starts to merge with another upper trof moving from the northern Plains and central Canada into the interior eastern states. During this evolution, the Tennessee surface low deepens somewhat while moving towards the D.C. area and brings a trailing surface trof southward into the forecast area on Saturday which continues to the coast Saturday night, possibly into the near shore waters. An upper ridge over the southwest and south central states meanwhile amplifies into a longwave ridge dominating the western and southern Plains, and this overall pattern will promote a deep layer northwest flow regime over the forecast area through the period. While abundant deep layer air will be in place over the area Friday evening with precipitable water values around 2.0 inches, this pattern will favor progressively drier deep layer air flowing into the region, with precipitable water values dropping to 1.2-1.5 inches by late Saturday night. A shortwave moving through the base of the upper trof combined with the weak surface trof looks to support likely pops over much of the area on Saturday, except for chance pops over interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama where coverage will be limited by the progressively drier air flowing into the region. Isolated to possibly scattered convection lingers into the evening hours Saturday evening. MLCAPE values Saturday afternoon look to be mostly around 1500 J/kg while 0-6 km bulk shear remains very low. With the drier deep layer air beginning to move into the area during the day, wet bulb zero values drop to around 11 kft over interior areas (with values around 12.5 kft closer to the coast) indicating the potential for enhanced downdraft production. As such, see a potential for some stronger storms mainly during the afternoon hours. A low risk of rip currents continues through the period. Highs on Saturday will be around 90 with afternoon heat index values of 100-104. Lows Friday night and Saturday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . A broad mid level trough axis should be oriented from the Ohio Valley and southward across the Appalachian Mountains and adjacent southeastern states early Sunday morning and should slowly move east and dampen somewhat as it approaches the Eastern Seaboard through Monday. A strong ridge of high pressure aloft should meanwhile extend from UT/NV/Four Corners region and eastward across the Rocky Mountains and adjacent Plains states. A light northwesterly to northerly mid level flow pattern should generally prevail across our forecast area between these features Sunday into Monday. A weak surface front/trough is also forecast to move southward across our forecast area Sunday into Sunday, before moving offshore by Sunday night. A slightly drier deep layer airmass still looks to advance into our region behind the boundary within the northwesterly to northerly flow. However, by Sunday afternoon, precipitable water values may be sufficiently high to aid in the development of a few showers and storms, particularly along the advancing boundary over southern portions of the forecast area. We have tapered POPs below blended guidance, particularly over northern/northeastern zones considering the lower PWAT airmass moving into this portion of the region. Deep layer moisture may improve over the region on Monday along a subtle impulse moving across the region within the weak northerly flow aloft. We still kept POPs in the lower end scattered coverage for Sunday afternoon (30-40%).

A broad upper level trough continues to deepen and currently looks to extend southward across the north central Gulf Coast region next Tuesday and Wednesday. Another weak surface front may push southward toward our region by the middle of next week. Operational medium range guidance shows differences on the availability of moisture and ascent over our area, but considering that our area is on the base of the trough axis and will likely have at least some moisture convergence along weak surface boundaries, we have continued a chance of showers and storms into Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs should continue to average in the lower to mid 90s inland Sunday and Monday, and upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. Max heat indices could range between 100-105 on Sunday, perhaps a little higher in the typically warmer spots. High temperatures may be just a few degrees cooler by Tuesday/Wednesday depending on the timing of the surface front and convective coverage around the region. /21

MARINE . No impacts forecast except winds and waves higher near storms each day. Environmental conditions support the development of waterspouts each morning. 07/mb

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi46 min E 1 G 5.1 91°F 88°F1017.4 hPa (+0.7)
PCBF1 39 mi46 min S 9.9 G 11 83°F 86°F1017.9 hPa (+0.3)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 51 mi46 min S 8 G 9.9
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 56 mi16 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 84°F 87°F1017.9 hPa78°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL6 mi1.8 hrsN 410.00 miA Few Clouds88°F74°F64%1016.7 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi53 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F75°F66%1017 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL7 mi50 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds90°F73°F58%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDTS

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE55S8S7S7S553SW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3NE3CalmN3NE3Calm4
1 day ago3--45
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E6NW3N5CalmCalmCalmW3N3N6NE5NE3NE4NE4NE5NE3N7NE7
2 days ago655SW7SW7SW744SW33Calm4------------CalmCalm34Calm3

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.