Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Springs, MS

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Starting off with late tonight/early this morning, recent GOES-16 IR and Cloud Microphysics shows the remnant upper-level cirrus canopy from earlier showers/storms over western/central areas.
This will continue to decay as low stratus builds into the rest of the region tonight. The main focus for the next 6-12 hours will be the potential for fog. Definitely not a clear-cut forecast scenario as we're seeing many pro's/con's to fog development where it'll make for a very challenging forecast. We do have ample low- level moisture return in a subtle advection fog regime, cooler shelf waters likely will promote best potential for areas of fog especially along the river closer to coastal SE LA. Already seeing in the fog product fog/stratus building down over the Atchafalaya Basin, where the cirrus canopy has dissipated allowing in radiational cooling to support fog maintenance/development. Given the aforementioned reasoning, went ahead with FG.Y for coastal SE LA and matched MF.Y for adjacent coastal waters across areas with best fog probabilities. As for further inland, areas that saw rain today (along/west of I-55) will have cooler grounds ontop of dewpoints in the mid 60's. Patchy fog will be high-confidence, but dense reaching 1/4sm or less will be in question and will continue to monitor guidance/obs in case an expansion northward is needed for the early morning hours impacting the morning commute.

Otherwise, we're on the path for another warm day on Thursday.
Forecast highs are coming in right at or just barely below climate records for the date. Won't be surprise we atleast tie or break a few as recent HRRR soundings indicate a good bit of sunshine expected tomorrow (mixed with high cirrus and cumulus streets within a moist upper PBL). Then, attention focuses at the pattern similarly what we saw on Wednesday. Another balance game between how much in the way of afternoon showers and storms we'll see.
While we're not exactly in the position for dynamic/synoptic-level support within a weak SW flow aloft, removed from any notable PVA/mid-level impulses, however will note broad weakness in the heights across the NW Gulf. Given that, we'll need other players to support shower/storm coverage and we might have that in the form of 1) Daytime destabilization/building instability 2) Ongoing WAA/moisture advection 3) localized forcing - now this one could be tricky. HRRR 0-1km mean wind/sfc wind illustrates progressive SE onshore flow, but does support the weak development of a southshore seabreeze boundary given land/water differential heating potential. If this occurs, the SE mean wind could stall this boundary east to west and tilt it towards the northwest basically following the river parishes. Small-scale by all means, but could support a zone of low-level confluence with the aforementioned subtle forcing mechanisms to get some scattered thunderstorms going. The combined degree of forcing involved is in question, but if there is enough, tall/skinny CAPE profile and positive buoyancy in the hail growth zone could support an isolated strong storm or two (-12 to -13C at H5, so cold air is situated aloft). Nothing slam dunk by all means, but was enough to introduce a minor uptick in PoP coverage from 10-15% to moreso 20-30%. CAMs that pinpoint this potential include the synoptic hour HRRR and RRFS. Again, a situation that will fall into place only if all lifting mechanisms are at work. Anything missing, we'll likely only get a few isolated shallow showers that struggle to attain substantial heights. Something to monitor.

Same deal going into Thursday night/Friday morning keeping an eye on the potential for areas of fog. Confidence will remain generally the same as patchy fog will be possible, but the extent/possibility of widespread dense fog will be in question.
Meanwhile going into the daytime hours on Friday in the same general idea that we'll see some areas with scattered showers or storms, with best coverage/focus across any confluence banding from surface winds. KLG

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Mar4 2026

Going into the weekend, definitely eyeballing some challenges.
Starting with what is going on to our west - a large-scale western US trough becomes "squeezed" between building PacNW ridging and anchored ridging over the SE Mid Atlantic states. Meanwhile, a piece of energy upstream of the positive-tilt axis slides south offshore coastal California eventually across the Baja. This pattern suggests what would eventually be the detachment of the lead energy/base of the shortwave going across the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, supporting widespread severe weather but meanwhile, the lingering energy becomes left behind and cut off meandering over Baja as the US transitions into a quasi-zonal pattern
Few big key points here
While yes, broad-scale synoptic-level support does wane as the best energy/lift advances into the northeastern US, but we'll see a weakening front drift our way and slow with time becoming parallel to low/mid-level flow reducing it's forward momentum.
Late Saturday, what is left from the earlier day's severe weather over the south/central US will surge east into the ArkLaTex to eventual MS valley region loosing 1) greatest dynamic lift/support as best lift pulls away from the region and 2)
loosing daytime heating/supportive thermodynamics. It's cautioned, that the extent/scale of upstream convection in this region during the afternoon/evening could potentially create a cold pool, at a scale that could self-sustain lift and continue this activity east and even southeast nearing our area Saturday night/Sunday morning. Lots of "what if's" with this possible scenario and will likely fully depend on the upstream depth/extent of severe convection and if it could counteract the aforementioned lack of environmental support. Late-hour RRFS runs are beginning to hint at this potential, so something to keep an eye out on.

Beyond this going into Sunday to eventually early next week, we enter a slight break in subtle NW Gulf ridging ahead of the upper- level low stationed over NW MX, but it won't take long until this energy slides east into the southern US, positioning the SE US into a favorable synoptic setup for severe weather. Many things to watch including how deep this upper-low can maintain, the depth/extent of the kicker shortwave that tries to pick it up over the northern US and eventual position of the low itself which will reveal which area(s) may be more pinpointed in the risk for severe weather. Many things need to come together just right, so for now, will continue to message the potential for the risk around mid-week, but stay tuned to the forecast as we near closer.
KLG

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Cigs are fairly stable this morning. Some light reduction in vis is expected at one or two sites but not expecting LIFR vis. IFR to LIFR cigs will begin to lift and break up around mid morning and should be all VFR by late morning. This same scenario will play out once again tonight in about the same fashion.

MARINE
Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Onshore southeasterly flow will persist today through the rest of the week and weekend averaging generally 8-12kts with gusts 12-15kts at times. Conditions will remain favorable for areas of coastal fog for nearshore waters each morning, mainly from 10PM-10AM. This morning, did introduce a Dense Fog Advisory for coastal areas near SE LA through 10AM. Otherwise, daily isolated to scattered shower/storm chances will persist each day closer to near shore areas, with rain chances increasing more as we get into the weekend.
Onshore southeasterly flow is expected to persist through atleast

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ066>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ538-550- 552-555.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ550-552- 555.