Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Springs, MS

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Tonight through Saturday morning, high pressure continues to dominate the upper level pattern. Conditions will be dry overall for the short term forecast and warmer than normal. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s for the rest of the workweek.
Some dense fog will be possible the next few mornings for areas of the CWA, but these signals are not as strong. As a result, we held off on a dense fog advisory as it seems more likely that visibilities will be greater than 1 mile. Generally, expect mild temperatures and dry weather for the rest of the workweek. MSW

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The main pattern for the long term forecast is the frontal system that will be pushing through the area on Saturday into Sunday. The timing of this system is still pretty uncertain, given we are still 3-4 days out. But generally, the system will be moving through late Saturday night (approaching the area around 9/10pm)
through Sunday morning (leaving the area by mid to late morning).
There are some model differences of a few hours in the global models, but we feel that these will resolve as we get a little closer and can incorporate some of the CAMs and short-range models tomorrow and Friday.

Some light showers could be possible ahead of the system on Saturday afternoon along and east of I-55, but these are not expected to be strong or severe. The main event will be a strong line of storms will be moving through the area late Saturday through Sunday morning. These storms will be strong to severe, looking at the model trends. There is plenty of helicity and high shear (50+kts). The biggest limiting factor right now will be the instability. So, to sum up, this will be a high-shear, low CAPE environment for our area.

Generally, the directional shear will be pretty indicative of the threats to expect. The wind profile is more unidirectional in general, but the track of the system could change this in coming days. If the directional shear is more uniform, then the threats will more likely be strong to severe straight-line winds associated with a QLCS/squall line. And the threat for tornadoes would be low, but not out of the realm of possibility. But it seems more logical given the parameters in place that there could be an embedded tornado or two in the squall line, but we would not be expecting discrete cells ahead of the line, looking at current mode of the system. And we want to note that this could definitely change given the uncertainties aloft, so this needs to be monitored closely, especially given the sensitivity and vulnerability added in the area due to Mardi Gras activities.

Additionally, it is important to note that the winds on the backside of the system will be quite strong, especially along the southshore, Sunday morning through the afternoon hours. Generally, sustained winds will be in the 20-25mph range with gusts up to 30mph. These forecast winds were increased off the NBM significantly to account for the low wind biases in the model for this system, especially for the southshore. Winds should start to ease by 4pm Sunday. Wind advisories may be necessary if this forecast holds, especially given the added concerns for the public due to outdoor events and Mardi Gras.

Looking past Sunday, conditions will be dry and mild overall with no significant weather concerns Monday through Thursday at this time. MSW

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VIS/CIG reductions are anticipated...more so CIG/low stratus overnight tonight and early Thursday. MVFR/IFR will likely be the rule at least until around mid morning or so. Otherwise, winds will transition behind a front to a more easterly or northeasterly direction. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 1034 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Onshore flow will likely be in place all week with high pressure centered generally east of the region. The threat of fog development will be continue for the next couple days, and again this upcoming weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Saturday into Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks from west to east across the Gulf Coast states.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.