Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Navarre, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 140537 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

New Aviation, Discussion, Marine

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

High pressure both at the surface and in the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain centered over the area through Tuesday.
Light northwesterly to northerly flow will advect slightly drier air aloft and along with increased subsidence should support deep afternoon mixing both Monday and Tuesday afternoon's. This should allow for lowering dewpoints and hotter temperatures during this period. High temperatures will likely be a few degrees hotter early this week with middle to upper 90s expected. Lows will remain warm as well with increased humidity overnight. Due to deep mixing, heat indices should remain between 100 and 105 degrees Monday afternoon and 102 to 107 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. We will need to keep a close eye on dewpoints the next few days to ensure that heat advisory conditions are not met, especially Tuesday. This potential will be closely monitored over the next few days.

Otherwise, the higher concern for potential high impact weather will come for the second half of the week. Latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a developing surface low pressure off the coast of South Carolina this evening should retrograde southwest and west towards the east coast of Florida tomorrow and across the Florida Peninsula Monday night through Tuesday morning. As this feature emerges off the west coast of Florida into the northeast Gulf conditions appear increasingly favorable for the development of a tropical system. At this time, there still remains uncertainty regarding how well the system can consolidate a low level center.
Depending upon its ability to organize, it will be possible for it to develop. Once again, overall confidence in both development and track remain low, but this is something to closely monitor over the next few days as it could result in hazardous high impact weather in our area if development and intensification occurs and it tracks close enough to our area. Regardless, it appears that increasing winds and dangerous rip current conditions appear more likely for the middle to end of the week if nothing else than a tightened pressure gradient. Continue to monitor the latest forecast and we will continue to provide additional updates. /JLH
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