Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Goulding, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:07PM Sunday March 29, 2020 10:33 PM CDT (03:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:53AMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:202003300900;;271100 Fzus54 Kmob 292059 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 359 Pm Cdt Sun Mar 29 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-300900- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 359 Pm Cdt Sun Mar 29 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 18 to 23 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 18 to 23 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 18 to 23 knots with gusts to around 30 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Wednesday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 359 Pm Cdt Sun Mar 29 2020
Synopsis..A weak front will push southward into the marine area tonight. A brief light offshore flow is expected to the north of the boundary overnight. A light onshore flow returns on Monday as the boundary lifts northward toward the coast. A moderate to strong southwest flow and building seas will develop on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. A moderate to strong offshore flow sets up Tuesday night in the wake of the frontal passage. A small craft advisory may become necessary Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds will decrease and seas will subside late Wednesday through the end of the week as high pressure builds across the eastern states and western atlantic.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goulding, FL
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location: 30.4, -87.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 292331 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 631 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday night/. A weak cold front is analyzed roughly along the I-65 corridor as of noon CDT. A drier airmass, light N/NW winds, and slightly cooler temperatures are noted across our northwestern zones behind the boundary. Low level moisture content remains higher across our southeastern areas ahead of the front, and satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cumulus fields over this part of the area. Isolated rain showers cannot be entirely ruled out over our southeastern zones this afternoon, but the chance of measurable rain remains less than 20%.

Also a quick note that Mobile has officially reached 86 degrees as of 320 PM CDT this afternoon, which breaks the old record of 85 set way back in 1879 (141 years). Pensacola has also reached at least 86 degrees so far today, breaking the old record of 83 last set in 1974 (46 years).

The southwest mid level flow pattern over our region this afternoon gradually transitions more zonal late tonight into Monday. The weak frontal boundary gradually moves offshore through late tonight as surface ridging builds southeastward into MS and AL. A drier surface airmass sinks southward into our region along the building ridge axis tonight, with dewpoints expected to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s over most interior areas. The lack of meaningful moisture and ascent will preclude rain chances for tonight and will keep the forecast dry. Cooler temperatures are anticipated tonight with lows expected to range from the mid 50s to around 60 over interior areas, and in the lower to mid 60s near the coast. The frontal boundary offshore will retreat northward to coastal portions of the CWA by late Monday afternoon, where winds should transition southerly and dewpoints increase back into the low to mid 60s. The next upper level trough will move from the Rockies toward the central plains on Monday. Any semblance of deep layer moisture/ascent is expected to remain well to the west of our CWA, so will opt for a dry forecast. Temperatures remain well above normal across our region on Monday with highs in the lower to mid 80s over much of the forecast area, except upper 70s over interior southeast MS and southwest AL. /21


AVIATION. 00Z issuance . VFR conditions will continue through the night with the weak front moving off the coast. Winds will be light and northerly tonight before slowly turning out of the south by tomorrow night. Expect a few low end VFR cigs tomorrow afternoon as fair weather cumulus develops with the diurnal cycle. BB/03

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/ . A weak cold front is analyzed roughly along the I-65 corridor as of noon CDT. A drier airmass, light N/NW winds, and slightly cooler temperatures are noted across our northwestern zones behind the boundary. Low level moisture content remains higher across our southeastern areas ahead of the front, and satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cumulus fields over this part of the area. Isolated rain showers cannot be entirely ruled out over our southeastern zones this afternoon, but the chance of measurable rain remains less than 20%.

Also a quick note that Mobile has officially reached 86 degrees as of 320 PM CDT this afternoon, which breaks the old record of 85 set way back in 1879 (141 years). Pensacola has also reached at least 86 degrees so far today, breaking the old record of 83 last set in 1974 (46 years).

The southwest mid level flow pattern over our region this afternoon gradually transitions more zonal late tonight into Monday. The weak frontal boundary gradually moves offshore through late tonight as surface ridging builds southeastward into MS and AL. A drier surface airmass sinks southward into our region along the building ridge axis tonight, with dewpoints expected to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s over most interior areas. The lack of meaningful moisture and ascent will preclude rain chances for tonight and will keep the forecast dry. Cooler temperatures are anticipated tonight with lows expected to range from the mid 50s to around 60 over interior areas, and in the lower to mid 60s near the coast. The frontal boundary offshore will retreat northward to coastal portions of the CWA by late Monday afternoon, where winds should transition southerly and dewpoints increase back into the low to mid 60s. The next upper level trough will move from the Rockies toward the central plains on Monday. Any semblance of deep layer moisture/ascent is expected to remain well to the west of our CWA, so will opt for a dry forecast. Temperatures remain well above normal across our region on Monday with highs in the lower to mid 80s over much of the forecast area, except upper 70s over interior southeast MS and southwest AL. /21

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/ . An upper shortwave trough ejects eastward from the southern Rockies across the South Plains Monday night, reaching the lower Mississippi River Valley region by early Tuesday morning. Lee cyclogenesis results in a surface low developing over the Texas panhandle and pushing east during this time, reaching central Mississippi by early Tuesday morning as well. As this low approaches, a warm front over the local area on Monday begins to lift inland and Gulf moisture returns to the region. The low passes just north of the local area Tuesday morning/afternoon, with its attendant cold front approaching and pushing through the area during that time. Showers and storms will accompany this front as it pushes through the area.

Instability develops ahead of the front, with roughly 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE over SE MS and SW AL early Tuesday morning increasing to as much as 1000 J/kg late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon along and east of I-65. Also expecting roughly 60 knots of unidirectional (westerly) deep-layer shear to overspread the region during this time. These ingredient will support convective organization and thus, the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. This severe potential will be greatest along and east of roughly the US-43 corridor from mid-morning through afternoon hours Tuesday. The primary hazard will be damaging straight-line winds. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, model soundings continue to indicate a layer of dry air around 700-400 mb which should support some hail growth up to quarter size in the stronger cores. Cannot rule out a tornado or two as well with any cells able to become more isolated and take advantage of a ~45 knot southwesterly 850mb jet producing weak low-level hodograph curvature and ~25 knots of 0-1 km shear.

Rain chances taper off quickly from west to east late Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front pushes through and winds shift to northwesterly. A cooler and drier airmass then settles in Tuesday night through Wednesday night as a weak ridge builds overhead and skies clear. High temps start the period warmer than normal, reaching the low to mid 80s Tuesday afternoon, but return to normal levels Wednesday as they top out in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will be mild Monday night due to the increasing cloud cover and moisture, remaining in the 60s and even around 70 degrees along the coast. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be much cooler in the wake of the cold front, dipping into the mid to upper 40s inland and low 50s along the coast. /49

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/ . Zonal flow sets up aloft as a weak ridge pushes off to the east. Dry weather continues Thursday as winds gradually shift back to southeasterly. Moisture returns to the area Friday into the weekend which, in combination with a series of weak impulses embedded within the zonal flow aloft, will support low-end rain chances across the area each day. A warming trend returns Thursday through the weekend, but not nearly as extreme as it was prior to Tuesday's cold front thanks to persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a lack of upper ridging and associated deep-layer subsidence. High temps reach the upper 70s each afternoon and lows dip into the upper 50s inland to low 60s along the coast each night. /49

MARINE . A weak front will push southward into the marine area tonight. A brief light offshore flow is expected to the north of the boundary overnight. A light onshore flow returns on Monday as the boundary lifts northward toward the coast. A moderate to strong southwest flow and building seas will develop on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. A moderate to strong offshore flow sets up Tuesday night in the wake of the frontal passage. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds will decrease and seas will subside late Wednesday through the end of the week as high pressure builds across the eastern states and western Atlantic. /21

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 0 mi45 min N 5.1 G 7 78°F 80°F1020.6 hPa
PPTA1 20 mi63 min 77°F 1021 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 29 mi33 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 79°F1020.4 hPa (+0.8)74°F
WBYA1 33 mi45 min 81°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 33 mi108 min 75°F 1020 hPa73°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 43 mi63 min NNW 16 75°F 1019.6 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 43 mi63 min Calm 72°F 1021 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 45 mi51 min NNE 11 G 16 76°F 1019.9 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 47 mi33 min N 15 G 16 76°F 1020.3 hPa (+1.2)
MBPA1 47 mi45 min 74°F 58°F
PTOA1 47 mi45 min 73°F 57°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 48 mi51 min NE 7 G 8 79°F 78°F1020.9 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 49 mi45 min 72°F 70°F1021.1 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL5 mi40 minN 710.00 miOvercast76°F54°F47%1020.5 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi2.6 hrsSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F71°F82%1019.4 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi37 minN 610.00 miA Few Clouds72°F52°F50%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPNS

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW4SW4SW6SW6SW7SW6SW5SW4S5SW5S11S15
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Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:31 AM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:25 PM CDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:58 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.60.70.80.911.11.11.11.110.80.70.50.30.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:22 AM CDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:06 PM CDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:58 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.