Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Martin, MS

FXUS64 KLIX 140445 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The MCS that developed this morning across central LA that caused flash flooding near Lafayette congealed and developed a deep cold pool that aided in a quick progression east across the area through midday today. This has dramatically altered the temperature forecast for today as the prior forecast hinged on a weaker cold pool from this MCS that kept progression slower and allowed for additional storm development ahead of this boundary into the afternoon hours. Temperatures are predominantly in the mid 70s to low 80s areawide with broken mid-upper cloud cover and as such the forecast has adjust high temperatures down. Some gradually clearing is anticipated in the coming hours on the west edge of this MCS's canopy which will help with some rebound in temperatures later this afternoon, but redevelopment of thunderstorms is less likely than advertised in the prior forecast package. This rain-cooled air has stabilized most of the area, and any attempts for storms to redevelop would likely be focused across the SW CWA near the Atchafalaya basin where recovery is already beginning.

Another muggy night tonight with rain-saturated soils and calm winds helping to saturate the boundary layer quicker than previous nights. If skies clear sufficiently, patchy fog will be possible mainly over southwest MS and adjancent Florida Parishes north of I-12. SREF/HRRR guidance provides a low chance (20%) of dense fog development tonight so a short-fused dense fog advisory could be possible if observations begin to indicate a quicker, more dense onset of fog than currently forecast.

A more typical summer morning is on tap for Saturday with mostly clear skies that will heat us up quickly into midday and get stronger temperature gradients between land and water to get sea and lake breezes started up by noon. Increasing shower and thunderstorms are likely by midday and will gradually move inland into the afternoon hours. DCAPE values of 900-1200 j/kg and PWATs greater than 1.8" via forecast model soundings for Saturday afternoon indicate that any strong storm will carry the potential for damaging winds up to 50 to 60 mph and very high rainfall rates in excess of 3" per hour. 0-3km lapse rates will also exceed 8 C/km with weaker mid-level lapse rates which would be sufficient for lofting small hail cores that can assist in downward transport of strong winds potentially via wet microbursts. These showers and storms will gradually wane into the evening hours as daytime heating dissipates and land areas stabilize.
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