Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 4:35 AM   Moonset 5:57 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 061125 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 625 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Light streamer showers are seen near and south of San Antonio early this morning. This activity should spread north into Central TX later this morning with a small chance of one or two breaking the cap this afternoon. PWat values should hover near or above 1.5 inches and there should be plenty of low level wind to support the roll cloud pattern in the lower portion of the conveyor belt of the upper low moving into the central/northern Plains states. The mostly cloudy day should help hold temperatures close to seasonal values, but above normal temperatures are expected near the Rio Grande where some downsloping plateau air mixes into the area. The transition to more stable air is more complete by this evening as a more dry zonal pattern develops over TX. The surface pressure gradient should weaken tonight and this could allow for a more stable fog pattern which could become dense in areas where good rains fell. Tuesday, the weaker pressure gradient and an eastward mixing of the dry-line will bring much more sunshine into the area and a significant uptick in daytime heating. The San Antonio area should get the first taste of mid 90s heat so far this year, but lower maxes are still expected over the rain-soaked soils around Austin. High RH values Tuesday could send the Heat Index soaring, and a few areas could see near advisory level values.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Mid and upper level high pressure off the coast of the western U.S.
along with low pressure over the Intermountain West will yield a Rex block pattern as we head into the middle portion of this week. Across our region, west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. In the lower levels, the thermal ridge remains strong and this combined with warm air off the Mexican plateau will result in continued above normal temperatures on Wednesday. Most areas will see highs in the 90s along with humid conditions. Temperatures will be hotter (100-105) across the Rio Grande plains as the dryline mixes eastward during the afternoon hours. We will need to monitor areas along and east of I-35 for a few spots briefly approaching Heat Advisory levels with the heat index near 108 degrees. Some convergence along the dryline and perhaps some weak upper support may allow for some afternoon convection to develop over the Hill Country into north Texas. For now, rain chances appear favored to our north, so we will keep the forecast dry. On Thursday, a cold front will move southward through the region, with the GFS trending a little stronger with the cooler air behind this front. The most notable cooling will occur across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward. Farther west into the Rio Grande plains, another round of hot temperatures in the 100-105 degree range will remain in the forecast. We could see a few showers or storms develop behind along and behind the front and will keep a low chance for precipitation in the forecast for the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor. The cooling trend continues for Friday and Saturday along with a low chance for showers and storms initially confined to the Rio Grande on Friday. An upper level jet moves across north Texas on Saturday into Sunday and this may help spread low rain chances farther east into the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Highs for Friday through the upcoming weekend will generally range from the upper 70s to upper 80s along with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Weak shower echoes can be seen on radar to the distant east of the I-35 sites, and there will probably be some more rounds after daybreak as mixing begins to increase Mostly IFR CIGs are expected before 15Z with steady improvement to VFR expected by 20-22Z. Not to much of the westerly winds aloft are expected to impact the marine low levels, so we should see the cigs lower into MVFR before midnight and probably to lower levels than tonight as the low level winds are expected to be lighter. VSBYs could drop below 1 mile overnight as many areas still have rain soaked soils.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 73 91 72 92 / 20 10 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 92 72 92 / 10 10 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 93 73 95 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 70 89 71 90 / 10 10 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 100 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 90 71 90 / 20 10 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 71 94 71 98 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 92 71 92 / 10 10 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 90 73 91 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 93 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 73 94 73 97 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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