Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hudson Bend, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

A SW upper flow aloft over Texas this morning will become a more flat zonal pattern on Sunday after a weak upper low ejects NE across NW TX. Light overrunning continues today into tonight, and a light SW low level wind will develop Sunday.

The best isentropic lift is to occur between now and noon, and there are a few models still generating a few pockets of quality rainfall amounts between 1/2 and 1 inch. The overall trend continues to be down versus what was thought to be a stronger system from a few days ago. There is a low potential for thunder, but with few of the models coming into a cluster of where the deepest convective potential will be, we'll keep the thunder out and add it back in should the radar and rapid refresh trends zero in on a location.
Surface dewpoints are stabilizing back into the upper 30s and higher, so the cool dry layer helping to reinforce the chill through evaporative cooling looks to be eroding soon. This means the ceiling should fall steadily this morning with a lot of the area under 1000 FT or lower ceilings for today. Patchy fog might return before sunset, and is a good bet for later this evening. There is enough of a signal in the MOS guidance to have us considering a mention in the HWO as later shifts may need to consider a dense fog advisory for some areas. The SW surface winds that develop Sunday morning may not mix out the fog right away, but we should see a better mixing day with some breaks in the clouds expected by afternoon and a nice rebound in temperatures versus the chilly air we continue to see for today. There could remain some morning drizzle Sunday, but we think the models will continue to speed up the drying trends for the daytime hours.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

The long-term forecast begins dry for Sunday evening with warmer overnight low temperatures compared to previous nights. Lows are forecast to range from the lower 40s over the southern Edwards Plateau to mid 50s along the coastal Plains. Light south to southwest winds are forecast to dominate South Central Texas on Monday morning. Can't rule out patchy fog for several hours over the coastal Plains. The southerly wind flow and increased moisture is likely resulting in well above temperatures from climate normals ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s. A dry frontal passage is forecast to push across the local area mid to late morning into the afternoon. The cooler air mass in the wake of the frontal boundary is forecast to arrive on Monday evening and continues into Tuesday morning. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the upper 30s across the southern Edwards Plateau and parts of the Hill Country to lower 50s along the coastal Plains.

Tuesday stays chilly with highs in the mid to upper 50s to lower 70s across the southern part of the Rio Grande. Blue skies and light winds will aid for excellent conditions for radiational cooling with overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the southern Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country to the mid to upper 30s along the I-35 corridor and coastal Plains. A Freeze Warning is likely for the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country if temperature trends continue for the overnight through Wednesday morning period.

Wednesday stays dry with daily max temperatures warming into the mid to upper 50s and mid 60s along the coastal Plains. Another cold night is in store for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Overnight lows are forecast to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
A Freeze Warning may be needed for some areas if they are not covered from the night before.

A warming trend is forecast for the latter part of the week with highs back into the lower 70s by Friday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Poor flight conditions persist through the majority of the TAF period with ceilings mainly in the IFR range. Periods of LIFR and lower end MVFR will be possible at times as well. Reductions in visibility is expected as well. Best rain chances are about to be behind us but some lingering light rain and/or drizzle will be possible into this evening. Rain chances should mainly shut off beyond midnight and into early Sunday morning. Flight conditions finally will improve Sunday afternoon in the 30 hr TAF sites with ceilings rising to MVFR then eventually VFR levels beyond 21Z Sunday. light northeasterly winds continue into tonight with the winds then shifting towards the west-southwest into and through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 48 47 65 53 / 60 20 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 48 47 65 51 / 70 20 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 48 47 65 52 / 70 20 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 46 44 65 48 / 50 30 30 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 50 46 65 46 / 30 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 48 45 65 50 / 50 30 30 0 Hondo Muni Airport 49 47 64 48 / 50 20 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 47 46 65 51 / 70 20 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 52 48 64 55 / 70 20 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 48 48 64 52 / 50 20 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 50 48 65 52 / 50 20 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.